USA - Economy: 3 Uncommon Signs That Economic Collapse Could Happen Soon - by Peter Reagan

As stocks continue to climb and the U.S. economy sustains its third longest period of expansion in history, market forecasters are seeking clues for when our next crisis may strike.

So far, three uncommon signals have them worried.

Here’s an explanation of the three uncommon signs causing alarm, and what they mean for your savings...

As stocks continue to climb and the U.S. economy sustains its third longest period of expansion in history, market forecasters are seeking clues for when our next crisis may strike.

So far, three uncommon signals have them worried.

Here’s an explanation of the three uncommon signs causing alarm, and what they mean for your savings...

Sign #1: Resurgence of Synthetic CDOs

Depending on how the underlying asset performs, derivatives can generate either massive gains or crushing losses.

But it’s when big banks and financial institutions start gambling in derivatives that things become especially dangerous. And that’s exactly what happened in the case of our last crisis: A slew of “too big to fail” organizations took on excessive risk through derivatives (mortgage-backed securities and others), and they couldn’t shoulder their losses when the bets went bad.

Sign #2: Lenders Loosening Mortgage Standards

Well, there are two main incentives for banks to lend recklessly:

1. Increasing competition from other banks, and...
2. Decreasing demand for credit.

Sign #3: The “Skyscraper Index”

In the case of our last crisis, both of those incentives came into play

Followers of the index today believe conditions are shaping up for it to be proven right once again, as cities across China, India, Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. erect another round of the tallest skyscrapers in history.

A good example of this is in Denver where a Manhattan developer is moving forward with plans to build a 1,000-foot skyscraper, which would dwarf all the other buildings in Denver.

 Read more: 3 Uncommon Signs That Economic Collapse Could Happen Soon

USA: Feds Demand Facebook Share Information on Anti-Trump Protesters - by Adam Edelman

The Justice Department is demanding that Facebook turn over information from three accounts that could provide access to the personal details of thousands of activists who expressed interest in anti-Trump rallies.

The department obtained search warrants targeting three Facebook accounts that were used to organize Inauguration Day protests against Donald Trump, the ACLU said late Thursday. But accessing those accounts would provide information on thousands of other users who "liked" an anti-Trump Facebook page, the group explained.

The ACLU’s Washington, D.C., office said in a statement it would fight the enforcement of the search warrants.

"Opening up the entire contents of a personal Facebook page for review by the government is a gross invasion of privacy," said Scott Michelman, a senior staff attorney at ACLU. "When law enforcement officers can comb through records concerning political organizing in opposition to the very administration for which those officers work, the result is the chilling of First Amendment-protected political activity." 

The warrants were issued as part of an ongoing case by the Justice Department against people who allegedly broke laws while protesting Trump's Jan. 20 inauguration in Washington. Prosecutors have said the website, DisruptJ20.org, was used to organize "a violent riot." 

One search warrant was issued for the DisruptJ20 Facebook page, which has since been renamed Resist This, requiring the group’s moderator, Emmelia Talarico, to hand over "nonpublic lists of people who planned to attend political organizing events and even the names of people who simply liked, followed, reacted to, commented o or otherwise engaged with the content on the Facebook page," the ACLU said in a motion filed Thursday in U.S. Superior Court in Washington.

That could include nearly 6,000 Facebook users who "liked" the page from Nov. 1, 2016, to Feb. 9, 2017.

Two other warrants obtained by the Justice Department would require Facebook to hand over "all information from the personal Facebook profiles of local DisruptJ20 activists' Lacy MacAuley and Legba Carrefour from Nov. 1, 2016, through Feb. 9, 2017.

The warrants demand "all private messages, friend lists, status updates, comments, photos, video and other private information solely intended for the users’ Facebook friends and family, even if they have nothing to do with Inauguration Day," the ACLU said.

Read more: Feds Demand Facebook Share Information on Anti-Trump Protesters - NBC News

Ryanair flight cancellation chaos: list info, CAA updates, routes, compensation, consumer rights - by Lianna Brinded

Europe’s biggest airline, Ryanair, is facing enforcement action from the the Civil Aviation Authority, Britain’s aviation regulator, for “persistently misleading” (pdf) passengers about their compensation rights following the cancellation of around 20,000 flights.

Yesterday (Sept. 27), Ryanair canceled 18,000 flights, on top of the 2,000 announced last week, because it didn’t properly schedule time off for its pilots. A recent change to the way it organizes vacations left the airline with a backlog of staff who need to take a holiday, leading to a shortage of pilots.

The CAA said in a statement that after both sets of cancellations, Ryanair failed to provide customers with “necessary and accurate” information about the fact that the carrier is obligated to refund all expenses incurred as a result of the flight cancellations.

This includes accommodation and meals as well as transfer costs to re-route passengers on other airlines when no suitable alternative is available.

Read more: Ryanair flight cancellation list info, CAA updates, routes, compensation, consumer rights — Quartz

USA: Landmark California bill for 100% clean energy unexpectedly put on hold until next year - by Sammy Roth

California lawmakers will go home for the year without voting on a landmark renewable energy bill, in an unexpected setback for the state’s efforts to lead the world in fighting climate change.

The bill would have required California to get 60 percent of its electricity from renewable sources like solar and wind by 2030, up from the current legal mandate of 50 percent. It also would have tasked state regulators with charting a path to 100 percent carbon-free electricity by 2045, which could have included energy sources not considered “renewable,” like nuclear power, large hydropower plants and gas-fired power plants that capture their carbon emissions.

State senators approved the legislation by a 25-13 margin in May, and for months its eventual passage in the Assembly looked like a foregone conclusion. But the bill got held up after unexpectedly strong opposition from investor-owned utilities like Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas & Electric, which argued it did not adequately protect their customers from potential increases in electricity costs. Unions also worked to kill the bill in the final week of session, after legislative leaders wouldn’t include provisions sought by organized labor.

Assembly member Chris Holden, a Pasadena Democrat who chairs the Assembly’s utilities and energy committee, said earlier this week he wouldn’t move the bill out of his committee because it didn’t have enough support to pass the chamber. He held to that stance as the legislative session came to a close Friday night, even as climate advocates urged him to advance the bill.

The bill’s failure was a major defeat for Gov. Jerry Brown and powerful Senate leader Kevin de León, a Los Angeles Democrat who wrote the legislation. It was also disheartening for climate and clean energy advocates, who have touted California as a global leader in the fight against climate change — an especially important role now that the Trump administration has backed out of the Paris climate agreement and is working to undo many Obama-era climate initiatives.

Read more: Kevin De Leon's SB 100 renewable energy bill on hold until next year

USA - Obama Care: Senate GOP fail again and abandon latest effort to kill Obama Care - by J. Eilperin and S.Sullivan

Senate Republicans decided Tuesday not to hold a vote on unwinding the Affordable Care Act, preserving the landmark 2010 law for the foreseeable future even as they suggested they may withhold crucial funding for it.

The move leaves the GOP — once again — short of fulfilling a signature promise, which some Republicans worried could inspire a backlash among their base heading into the 2018 midterm elections.

Several senators said they instead plan to move onto other issues now that the party’s latest proposal, authored by Republican Sens. Lindsey O. Graham (S.C.) and Bill Cassidy (La.), had failed to garner sufficient support 

“Where we go from here is tax reform,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) told reporters after holding a closed-door policy lunch with members of his caucus.

Meanwhile, Republican lawmakers voiced little interest in shoring up the existing ACA insurance market, sowing apprehension among insurers and state officials just weeks before consumers must start enrolling in plans for next year. 

Note EU-Digest: The US Republican Party is in deep trouble: division among party members, poor Congressional leadership, and the fact that their "Principal Leader", the President of the USA, is a "loose Canon", also is not helpful for their reputation and morale within the party.

 
Read more: Senate GOP abandons latest effort to unwind the Affordable Care Act - The Washington Post

British Economy: Bank of England’s Carney sees Brexit pushing up inflation, rate hike likely - by Lindsay Dunsmuir

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said on Monday that Brexit is likely to hurt Britain's growth prospects in the short term and push up inflation as the country adjusts to life outside the European Union.

In a speech that immediately drew criticism from some Brexit supporters who have previously criticized his stance on the EU, Carney warned that Britain would face a cost for reworking its trade relationships.

In the short term, the weakening of trade ties with its EU partners would not be offset by new agreements with other countries, he said, as he repeated his argument from last week that interest rates would probably need to rise soon.

"This makes Brexit, relative to the experience of the past half century, unique," Carney said in a speech at the International Monetary Fund's Washington headquarters. "It will be, at least for a period of time, an example of de-globalization, not globalization."

Brexit supporters say the freedom to strike new trade deals is one of the big advantages of leaving the European Union. Diane James, an independent member of the European Parliament who was briefly

leader elect of Britain's anti-EU UKIP party, took aim at Carney.

"Mark Carney blaming inflation on Brexit. Does he not realize that QE and ZIRP are the major causes?," James said on Twitter, referring to the BoE's stimulus programs.

Read More: Bank of England’s Carney sees Brexit pushing up inflation, rate hike likely - The Globe and Mail

China, Earthquake, North Korea, Nuclear Test, USA

China's earthquake administration said on Saturday it had detected a magnitude 3.4 earthquake in North Korea that was a "suspected explosion", raising fears the isolated state had conducted another nuclear bomb test weeks after its last one.

An official at South Korea's meteorological agency said they were analysing the tremor, which they put at magnitude 3.0, but the initial view was that it was a natural quake.

Read more: Earthquake in North Korea a 'suspected explosion': China

EU energy and climate policies: EU to aim for 100% emission cuts in new ‘mid-century roadmap’ - by Frédéric Simon

With the 2019 European elections approaching, the Juncker Commission is stepping up preparatory work to lay down its legacy for the next EU executive.

Less than a year after it tabled a landmark package of clean energy laws, which is still making its way through the EU institutions, officials are now busy preparing the next document that will shape the bloc’s energy and climate policies for the years to come.

“Meeting the Paris goal of keeping climate change well below 2°C – and aiming for no more than 1.5°C – requires bold action, including reaching climate neutrality this century,” said a source involved in the update of the EU’s 2050 low-carbon economy roadmap.

“This is about much more than meeting quantitative targets,” the source told EURACTIV on condition of anonymity. “Achieving our long-term goals means putting in place today the enabling conditions for the transformation to a low-carbon society and avoiding a lock-in to the status quo.”

Several energy industry sources who met in recent weeks with Miguel Arias Cañete, the European Commissioner for climate action and energy, confirmed that the EU executive was preparing to launch a public consultation with a view to updating its low-carbon economy roadmap in 2018.

Jill Duggan, Director of The Prince of Wales’ Corporate Leaders Group, said: “News that the EU is setting its sights on achieving zero emissions by 2050 is very welcome. The science tells us this is necessary and it’s imperative that politicians respond by putting policies in place that give businesses the certainty they need to invest and adapt.”

First published in 2011, the 2050 low-carbon economy roadmap laid the foundations for the EU’s climate and energy policy in the years ahead, charting a path towards a reduction of at least 80% in the bloc’s emissions by mid-century, in line with international commitments.

The roadmap does not impose legally-binding objectives on EU member states. But it did set the direction when the time eventually came to adopt hard legislation.

For instance, it translated into an EU-wide target of cutting domestic emissions by at least 40% by 2030, an objective endorsed by EU heads of states and governments ahead of the UN conference on climate change in Paris. The objective has since been cast in stone as part of the EU’s nationally determined contribution to the Paris Agreement.

Read more: EU to aim for 100% emission cuts in new ‘mid-century roadmap’ – EURACTIV.com

USA: Donald Trump Took $107 Million Promised to Charities... And Kept It - by Mark Sumner

Occupying the White House has proven lucrative for Donald Trump. He’s been able to charge the Secret Service hundreds of thousands for rental space and golf carts. He’s been able to turn his Washington Hotel into a place where the emoluments clause is put to constant test. But the AP reports that no other cash-in matches the one Trump took on day one.

President Donald Trump’s inaugural committee raised an unprecedented $107 million for a ceremony that officials promised would be “workmanlike,” and the committee pledged to give leftover funds to charity.

The $107 million is a massive amount for even the most lavish inauguration. It’s almost twice what Barack Obama took in for a celebration that was much more widely attended and which included many more events. Trump even cut back on the number of inaugural balls to only two, compared to the ten balls that the Obamas attended in 2009. With twice the money and one fourth the events, all but a handful of the $107 million gifted to Trump for the inauguration should be available for charitable giving.

It’s been eight months. How much has been given out? None. None at all.

Nothing has yet gone to charity.
What is left from the massive fundraising is a mystery, clouded by messy and, at times, budget-busting management of a private fund that requires little public disclosure. 

Donald Trump wants attention for giving $1 million to those affected by recent hurricanes—donations that so far haven’t actually happened. But he’s still sitting on a massive heap of cash from January which, despite promises, hasn’t gone to help anyone but Trump.

Read more: Donald Trump Took $107 Million Promised to Charities... And Kept It | Alternet

Currencies: Dollar Collapse: Will It and When - by Kimberly Amadeo

US Dollar Collapse?

A dollar collapse is when the value of the U.S. dollar plummets. Anyone who holds dollar-denominated assets will sell them at any cost. That includes foreign governments who own U.S. Treasurys. It also affects foreign exchange futures traders. Last but not least are individual investors.

When the crash occurs, these parties will demand assets denominated in anything other than dollars. The collapse of the dollar means that everyone is trying to sell their dollar-denominated assets, and no one wants to buy them.

This will drive the value of the dollar down to near zero. It makes hyperinflation look like a day in the park.

Three conditions must be in place before the dollar could collapse. First, there must be an underlying weakness. That situation exists in 2017. The U.S. currency is fundamentally weak despite its 25 percent increase since 2014. The dollar declined 54.7 percent against the euro between 2002 and 2012. Why? The U.S. debt almost tripled during that period, from $6 trillion to $15 trillion. The debt is even worse now, at $20 trillion. The debt-to-GDP ratio is now more than 100 percent. That increases the chance the United States will let the dollar's value slide. That's because it would be easier to repay its debt with cheaper money.

Second, there must be a viable currency alternative for everyone to buy. The dollar's strength is based on its use as the world's reserve currency.

The dollar became the reserve currency in 1973 when President Nixon abandoned the gold standard.  As a global currency, the dollar is used for 43 percent of all cross-border transactions. That means central banks must hold the dollar in their reserves to pay for these transactions. As a result, 61 percent of these foreign currency reserves are in dollars.

The next most popular currency after the dollar is the euro. But it comprises less than 30 percent of central bank reserves. The eurozone debt crisis weakened the euro as a viable global currency.

China and others argue that a new currency should be created and used as the global currency. China's central banker Zhou Xiaochuan goes one step further. He claims that the yuan should replace the dollar to maintain China's economic growth. China is right to be alarmed at the dollar's drop in value. That's because it is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasurys, so it just saw its investment deteriorate. For more, see Dollar to Yuan Conversion and History.

Could bitcoin replace the dollar as the new world currency? It has many benefits. It's not controlled by any one country's central bank. It is created, managed, and spent online. It can also be used at brick-and-mortar stores that accept it. Its supply is finite. That appeals to those who would rather have a currency that's backed by something concrete, such as gold.

But there are big obstacles. First, its value is highly volatile. That's because there is no central bank to manage it. Second, it has become the coin of choice for illegal activities that lurk in the deep web.

That makes it vulnerable to tampering by unknown forces.

These two situations make a collapse possible. But, it won’t occur without a third condition. That's a huge economic triggering event that destroys confidence in the dollar.

Altogether, foreign countries own more than $5 trillion in U.S. debt. If China, Japan or other major holders started dumping these holdings of Treasury notes on the secondary market, this could cause a panic leading to collapse. China owns $1 trillion in U.S. Treasurys. That's because China pegs the yuan to the dollar. This keeps the prices of its exports to the United States relatively cheap. Japan also owns more than $1 trillion in Treasurys. It also wants to keep the yen low to stimulate exports to the United States. Japan is trying to move out of a 15-year deflationary cycle.

The 2011 earthquake and nuclear disaster didn't help.

Would China and Japan ever dump their dollars? Only if they saw their holdings declining in value too fast and they had another export market to replace the United States. The economies of Japan and China are dependent on U.S. consumers. They know that if they sell their dollars, that would further depress the value of the dollar. That means their products, still priced in yuan and yen, will cost relatively more in the United States. Their economies would suffer. Right now, it's still in their best interest to hold onto their dollar reserves.

China and Japan are aware of their vulnerability. They are selling more to other Asian countries that are gradually becoming wealthier. But the United States is still the best market in the world.

A dollar collapse will not occur in 2017. In fact, it's unlikely that it will collapse at all. That's because any of the countries who have the power to make that happen (China, Japan, and other foreign dollar holders) don't want it to occur. It's not in their best interest. Why bankrupt your best customer? Instead, the dollar will resume its gradual decline as these countries find other markets.

A sudden dollar collapse would create global economic turmoil. Investors would rush to other currencies, such as the euro, or other assets, such as gold and commodities. Demand for Treasurys would plummet, and interest rates would rise. U.S. import prices would skyrocket, causing inflation.

U.S. exports would be dirt cheap, given the economy a brief boost. In the long run, inflation, high interest rates and volatility would strangle possible business growth. Unemployment would worsen, sending the United States back into recession or even a depression.

Protect yourself from a dollar collapse by first defending yourself from a gradual dollar decline. Keep your assets well-diversified by holding foreign mutual funds, gold, and other commodities.

A dollar collapse would create global economic turmoil. To respond to this kind of uncertainty, you must be mobile. Keep your assets liquid, so you can shift them as needed. Make sure your job skills are transferable. Update your passport, in case things get so bad for so long that you need to move quickly to another country. These are just a few ways to Protect Yourself and Survive a Dollar Collapse.

Read more: Dollar Collapse: Will It and When

EU Privacy Shield: Guarding the EU’s privacy shield against Trump Administration- by Mehreen Khan

The controversial EU-US data sharing arrangement, which emerged from the ashes of the invalidated Safe Harbour, will undergo its first progress report from the European Commission after just over a year in existence today. More than 2,400 US companies, including Microsoft, Facebook and Google, have signed up to the pact, which allows them to legally transfer everything from pictures to payslips across the Atlantic without breaching the EU's robust laws on personal privacy.

The arrangement has been hailed as providing a bespoke framework for the flow of commercial data between Europe and third countries. Today's inaugural review will begin in Washington when EU commissioner Vera Jourova meets Wilbur Ross, Donald Trump's commerce secretary, before heading off to Silicon Valley to ask Google and Facebook about life under the new regime.

Speaking to the FT, Ms Jourova said she expects the fact-finding mission to identify holes and make “some proposals for improvement but I don’t expect we will reopen negotiations again”. One lawyer thinks Brussels will give Privacy Shield a "B grade” when the report is published next month.

But not all is well. The Commission has fired a warning shot to President Trump that it could soon run out of patience with Washington's delays in making key senior appointments — such as an independent ombudsman — to oversee the pact. “We are patient but cannot be patient forever”, said Ms Jourova.

The tough talk reflects unease in Europe about relations with the new White House administration.

After a difficult start to life (MEPs initially rejected Privacy Shield in a non-binding vote and the pact is already subject to two legal challenges), the framework faces a fresh test in the shape of a president who is unapologetic about prioritizing national security and business interest over personal privacy, the environment and concerns for the niceties of international diplomacy.

Read more: Guarding the EU’s privacy shield against Trump

Ukraine: Something Is Happening Here... - by Kenneth Courtis

Ukraine’s President, 51-year old Petro Poroshenko – or Porky, as he is known to all Ukrainians – is at single digits in the polls. With elections scheduled for 2019 that cannot sit well with the oligarch-turned-president.

But in their assessment of him, Ukrainians are simply echoing the disdain that, all smooth-talking rhetoric aside, he has shown them. Remember that he promised to divest himself of certain assets – presumably acquired “legally” once he was elected.

What has happened is the opposite. His group has acquired more state assets at below rock-bottom prices. His firms are already lined up at the trough to gobble up all kinds of stuff in the coming wave of privatizations that the IMF has instructed the county to carry out.

Porky is pretty much the chocolate king of Eastern Europe and the CIS. People on the ground tell me that his three most profitable chocolate factories are in, yes, Russia…

All that sweet stuff can’t obscure the harsh realities. Real wages of workers have been chopped by more than half over the last three years. The emerging middle classes have been crushed.
 
Read more: Ukraine: Something Is Happening Here... - The Globalist

United Nations General Assembly: From North Korea to global terror threats, these are the issues on the agenda

Facing an escalating nuclear threat from North Korea and the mass flight of minority Muslims from Myanmar, world leaders will gather this week at the United Nations starting to tackle these and other tough challenges — from the spread of terrorism to a warming planet.

UN Secretariat New York

The spotlight will be on US President Donald Trump and France's new leader, Emmanuel Macron, who will both be making their first
appearance at the General Assembly, which begins tomorrow.

They will be joined by more than 100 heads of state and Government, including Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe, one of Africa's longest-serving leaders who is said to be bringing a 70-member entourage.

These are the key issues to follow during the UN General Assembly, in no particular order1: 1. North Korea, 2. Myanmar, 3. Extreme weather events, 4. Global terror threats, 5. UN management reform, 6. Peacekeeping operations, 7. Improving international relations.

New York police and a host of federal agencies are preparing for the annual traffic and security nightmare known as the United Nations General Assembly, featuring a week of speeches by U.S. President Donald Trump and a parade of other dignitaries. 

The meeting of the world’s top leaders and diplomats, scheduled to begin on Tuesday, will bring street closures, thousands of police officers and hundreds of protesters to midtown Manhattan, an area already plagued with gridlock on an average weekday. 

“It’s the equivalent of the Super Bowl of security,” said J. Peter Donald, a spokesman for the New York City Police Department. 

Trump will be on hand on Monday and Tuesday, when he will address the body of world leaders for the first time. It was not immediately clear whether he would stay at his Manhattan penthouse about a mile away from United Nations headquarters or sleep at his golf course in Bedminster, New Jersey.

Read more: United Nations General Assembly: From North Korea to global terror threats, these are the issues on the agenda - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Climate Change: EU, Canada, China to jointly fight climate change

The European Union, Canada and China are joining forces to strengthen global action in the fight against climate change, co-hosting a Ministerial Meeting on Climate Action on September 15-16 in Montreal, Canada.

This gathering, a first of its kind, seeks to galvanise global momentum for the implementation of the Paris Agreement and will bring together ministers and high-level representatives from 34 economies that are part of the G20 and other invited countries, the Commission said.

Climate Action and Energy Miguel Arias Cañete and Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau are leading lead the roundtable discussion on climate action and clean growth.

Cañete stressed that the EU remains committed to the Paris Agreement and its full and swift implementation. “Domestically, we are progressing steadily with the finalisation of the measures to reduce our emissions by at least 40% by 2030. Internationally, we are strengthening our existing partnerships and seeking new alliances.

Our aim is to raise global climate ambition, follow through with concrete action and support our partners, in particular the most vulnerable countries,” Cañete said.

The meeting in Montreal takes place only days after this year’s State of the Union Address by Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker where he underlined that he “wants Europe to be the leader when it comes to the fight against climate change.

Set against the collapse of ambition in the United States, Europe will ensure we make our planet great again. It is the shared heritage of all of humanity”.

Two months before the next United Nations climate conference (COP23) in Bonn, Germany, the meeting will also provide the space for discussions on the expected outcomes of upcoming UN climate talks, the Commission said.

Read more: EU, Canada, China to jointly fight climate change

The Netherlands - Economy - Individual Wealth: More millionaires in the Netherlands - by Mina Solanki

According to a report by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) based on asset figures from 2007 to 2015, the number of millionaire households in the Netherlands rose by 500 to 106.000 in 2015. The report did not look at the value of the millionaire’s residence or mortgage debt.

Of the 106.000 millionaire households, two-thirds reported employment as their main source of income. The majority of millionaires work in the agricultural industry, financial services, trade, specialised business services, or in the care industry.

About 80 percent of millionaires are entrepreneurs in one way or another, with half taking the title of managing director or major shareholder and a third being self-employed.

Coming in first with the highest percentage, 19 percent of millionaire breadwinners work in the agricultural industry, half of which are active in dairy farming businesses. Many people in this industry are self-employed, and often their money is tied up in their business, for example, in land and equipment.

Financial services came second as the industry in which the most millionaires work.

In 2015, there were 94 Dutch municipalities with 2,5 percent or more residents who had millionaire status. However, in 5 municipalities, 6 percent or more of the residents were millionaires.

The greatest number of millionaires lived in Laren, followed by Bloemendaal, Blaricum, Wassenaar and Rozendaal.

Dutch Millionaires are often married, with 71 percent having tied the knot compared to 45 percent of non-millionaires. Few, 7 percent, had also gone through a divorce, as opposed to 14 percent of non-millionaires.

Read more: More millionaires in the Netherlands

Stock Market Crash ? : Top Economist Says a Drop Is Coming - by Mark Zandi

If you are a stock investor, buckle in.

Investors have enjoyed an amazing run. Stock prices are up by nearly a third over the past 18 months and seem to be hitting new record highs daily. And the run-up has been almost a straight line, with stock price volatility—the ups and downs in prices—the lowest it has ever been.

But if you are an investor, soak all of this in, because it will soon be nothing but a memory. The stock market is due for a significant correction—defined as a greater than 10% decline in stock prices—and stock returns in the next several years will be very pedestrian if they increase at all.

It’s not that the stock market is a bubble ready to burst. Bubbles are created by speculation, when investors buy a stock simply because its price has risen strongly in the recent past, and therefore conclude it will rise strongly in the foreseeable future. This clearly characterized the tech bubble that inflated around Y2K. Investors piled into the stocks of dot-com companies, many without even understanding what the Internet was. Most of the companies weren’t making any money, and few had business models that seemed likely to ever generate profits. That bubble was also fueled by margin debt, as investors borrowed aggressively against their stock holdings to purchase even more stocks.

So why am I pessimistic? The stock market is overvalued. That is, stock prices are much too high despite the good outlook for corporate earnings. The only other time in the past half century that stock prices have been so highly priced was during the tech bubble. Yes, they’re even more overpriced now than prior to the 1987 market crash.

Corporate earnings are good, but they are set to grow more slowly, since businesses will have to give their employees bigger pay increases to hold onto them, let alone hire new workers. 

With unemployment falling toward 4%, wages will slowly, but steadily accelerate. Businesses will respond by raising prices more quickly, but they won’t be able to pass through all of their higher costs to customers. Margins will come under pressure.

Intensifying wage and price pressures means that the Federal Reserve will need to raise short-term interest rates more consistently, and begin to wind down its balance sheet, which will cause long-term rates to rise. It is hard to see investors being as enthusiastic about stocks when interest rates are rising. 

Higher rates will also make it more expensive for businesses to borrow money to buy back their stock, a common practice in the current bull market.

Then there is Washington. So far, the dysfunction there hasn’t been a problem; it has only meant that lawmakers have done nothing. That is fine for a growing economy. But doing nothing won’t be a winning strategy for much longer. 

Lawmakers must soon agree on a budget or risk shutting the government down, and they must raise the Treasury debt limit or risk shutting down the global financial system. Tax reform would be nice, but odds are that if there is reform it will fall short of what investors desire.

\

Of course, there is no timing a stock market correction. It could happen tomorrow, next quarter, or next year. But that time is at hand.

The author of this report is Mark Zandi is chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. He has investments of all of the companies mentioned in this article.

Read complete report by clicking here: Stock Market Crash: Top Economist Says a Drop Is Coming | Fortune.com

USA Economic Inequality: Record Gap Between U.S. Income Measures Shows Rising Inequality

On the surface, Census Bureau data released Tuesday showed little change in the gap between rich and poor because the traditional measure of income inequality – the Gini index – was basically steady from 2015 to 2016.

Bu difference between median and mean household income hit a record last year, which suggests the rich got richer as they left the typical American household further behind.Specifically, median household income, after adjusting for inflation, rose 3.2 percent in 2016 to $59,039, while mean income increased at a bit of a faster clip – 3.6 percent – to $83,143.

That’s a difference of $24,104, up from $23,035 in 2015 and just $5,318 when the series started in 1967.

Read complete report here: Record Gap Between U.S. Income Measures Shows Rising Inequality

EU State of the Union: Juncker says EU to 'move on' from Brexit and calls for "One speed. One currency. One president"

President Juncker gives State of the 
Union address to the EU Parliament

Preesident Jean-Claude Juncker declared : "the “wind is back in Europe’s sails” in an an often very personal State of the Union speech, in which he gave his vision for the future of the European Union after the UK makes its “tragic” departure in 2019.

President Jean-Claude Juncker in his speech (often interrupted by applause) argued for a more unified and politically-accountable European Union after Brexit, which would combine the presidencies of the Commission and the Council into one (universally elected?), complete the euro currency zone, and generally push the bloc to take “a democratic leap forward” in unison and at a single speed.

The European commission president said he would always be sorrowed by the UK’s decision to leave the EU. “This will be a very sad and tragic moment in our history, we will always regret this”, he said before responding to heckling from Nigel Farage, President Trump's "soul mate", by retorting: “I think you will regret this soon, I might say.”

Calling for a special summit in Romania on the 30 March 2019, the first day of an EU of 27 member states rather than 28, Juncker said he hoped the continent would “wake up” that day to a new more unified bloc.

Juncker’s annual address to the European parliament in Strasbourg was notably more upbeat about the future than his speech a year ago, with economic growth outstripping the US and unemployment at a nine-year low. The commission president and former prime minister of Luxembourg  insisted the bloc should seize the moment to make widespread reforms. “As Mark Twain wrote, years from now we will be more disappointed by the things we did not do, than by the ones we did,” he said.

"On the 30 March 2019, we will be a union of 27 and I suggest we prepare very well for that date.”

Juncker added that the council should adopt qualified majority voting, rather than unanimity, on foreign policy issues and drive forward in European defence. “By 2025 we need a fully-fledged European defense union,” he said.

He also added the EU would establish a European cybersecurity agency. “Cyber-attacks know no borders and no one is immune,” he said.

Juncker told MEPs he intended to start trade talks with Australia and New Zealand, and promised to legislate to protect strategic interests from foreign purchases through industrial screening.

A joint statement from the French, German and Italian governments following the speech endorsed the move. The German minister for economic affairs, Brigitte Zypries, said: “We must avoid other states benefiting from our opening to advance their own industrial policy interests.”

Juncker added that the EU would respond to the “collapse of the ambitions in the US” on climate change by stepping into the vacuum and ensuring that Europe protected the world. “Let’s catch the wind in our sails”, he told MEPs.

However, he ruled out Turkey’s accession to the EU in the “foreseeable future”, and, in his strongest comments to date on the issue, he condemned the country’s slide into authoritarianism under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

“Turkey has been moving away from the European Union in leaps and bounds,” Juncker told MEPs. “Journalists belong in editorial offices amid a heated debate, and not in prison. I appeal today to the powers that be in Turkey: let our journalists go, and not just our journalists.”

The EU President also proposed combining the Commission and Council presidencies — a move that would transform the EU leadership and consolidate authority in a single figure who would campaign for the post.

“Europe would function better if we were to merge the presidents of the European Commission and the European Council,” Juncker told the European Parliament in Strasbourg.
“Europe would be easier to understand if one captain was steering the ship.”

For the video with the complete speech of President Juncker click here. 

Mr. Juncker. who is originally from Luxembourg spoke at times in German, French and English. His speech was simultaneously and individually translated for members of the EU Parliament in their own local language 

EU-Digest

USA - Equifax Drama: Chatbot lets you sue Equifax for up to $25,000 without a lawyer - by Shannon Liao

Equifax’s security failure affected 143 million US consumers, or 44 percent of the US population. To add insult to injury, Equifax waited over a month before revealing the security breach it had suffered. 

If you’re one of the millions affected by the breach, a chatbot can now help you sue Equifax in small claims court, potentially letting you avoid hiring a lawyer for advice.

Even if you want to be part of the class action lawsuit against Equifax, you can still sue Equifax for negligence in small claims court using the DoNotPay bot and demand maximum damages. Maximum damages range between $2,500 in states like Rhode Island and Kentucky to $25,000 in Tennessee.

The bot, which launched in all 50 states in July, is mainly known for helping with parking tickets. But with this new update, its creator, Joshua Browder, who was one of the 143 million affected by the breach, is tackling a much bigger target, with larger aspirations to match. He says, “I hope that my product will replace lawyers, and, with enough success, bankrupt Equifax.” 

Read more: Chatbot lets you sue Equifax for up to $25,000 without a lawyer - The Verge

IRMA: Florida's electric grid system outdated and inadequate to meet natural disaster challenges

Outdated power supply lines into most Florida/US homes

Is it the Category 3 Hurricane Irma that cut the power to more than 3 million Florida Power & Light customers, or an under-invested Florida grid system that caused these unacceptable power outages, with even more outages expected before the storm is done.

Outages stood at 3,636,550 customer accounts just after 5 a.m. Monday September 11, and were expected to increase throughout the night.

Including 492,980 customers whose power was at some point restored, outages have affected more than about 3 million accounts, or 6 million people in FPL’s 35-county territory.

The fact of all this drama is that both America's electrical hardware and software components are still dealing with "a legacy of under - investment."

Annual electrical transmission investment in the U.S. grew only about 24% in the past 15 years.

U.S. electricity reliability to homes is mainly still based on overhead pole supported wired systems, instead of one, like in most civilized countries in the world, which is laid underground.
 
Consequently the U.S. has significantly higher rates of power loss than countries like France (only 53 minutes lost per year on average) or the Netherlands (only 29 minutes)

In the case of Florida, FPL, the nation's fourth largest utility, already came under heavy criticism after Florida's spate of hurricanes in 2005, which exposed lax attention to maintenance issues, like updated power line poles, tree-trimming and what was widely considered an outdated grid system.

The latter may not have allowed for sufficient redundancy, or the ability to adjust to strains and funnel power via different routes.

And while not much has been done about fixing the power grid infra-structure,  many South Floridians have still been socked with bill increases of as much as $100 a month over the past years.

Critics argue that this is totally unnecessary for a profitable utility like FT to do,  since they have an increasing revenue stream, as a result of 125,000 or more new residents entering Florida each year.

But Florida, like the rest of the US has neglected its power infrastructure, and customers, unfortunately, are paying the price for this neglect.

"Isn't it time to do something about this Florida Governor Rick Scott".

© This article can be copied,translated,distributed by request to:

freeplanet@prontonmail.com

From EU-Digest

US Insurance Industry: Hurricane Irma will hammer insurance industry with billions in losses - by Christina Farr

Hurricane Irma will create combined insured losses of $20 billion to $65 billion, according to a projection from risk modeling software company AIR Worldwide.

The company includes in its estimate the United States and selected islands in the Caribbean. For the U.S. alone, insured losses are expected to reach between $15 billion to $50 billion, AIR said.

Although the final costs of Hurricane Harvey are still being tallied, the more powerful Irma has brought Florida to a standstill and is likely to pack a financial wallop along with its human toll.

Read more: Hurricane Irma will hammer insurance industry with billions in losses

US Infrastructure: How Trump Could Rebuild America - by Lenny Mendonca & Laura Tyson

In the United States today, with partisan polarization at record levels, there is still at least one policy goal on which there is broad consensus, not only among Republicans and Democrats, but also among business and labor leaders, states and cities, and ordinary citizens: infrastructure.

The US has been short-changing infrastructure for years. Historically, federal, state, and local governments have together invested about 2.5% of GDP in non-defense infrastructure assets. But, over the last 35 years, federal investment as a share of GDP has dropped by more than half.

For a long time, state and local governments were able to cover the shortfall, increasing their contribution to three quarters of total spending. But when the Great Recession hit, states and cities were forced to slash their budgets. As a result, in the second quarter of this year, total public expenditure on infrastructure fell to an estimated 1.4% of GDP, the lowest share on record.

This is all the more worrying, given the already-poor state of US infrastructure, which earned a grade of D+ from the American Society of Civil Engineers in its 2017 quadrennial report. Almost 20% of US highways are in disrepair. The costs and consequences of deferred maintenance are apparent everywhere, and almost every city and state has its horror stories: dysfunctional subways in New York City, lead-contaminated drinking water in Flint, Michigan, the near-collapse of a major dam in Oroville, California.

The report estimates that restoring US infrastructure to “a state of good repair” would cost $4.6 trillion between 2016 and 2025. That is $2.1 trillion more than has been committed so far. Developing new funding sources for infrastructure investment is therefore critical.

Read more: How Trump Could Rebuild America by Lenny Mendonca & Laura Tyson - Project Syndicate

EU Retirement Plans: Can new EU-wide pension help savers dodge retirement crisis?

The EU hopes its much-hyped portable private pension will address a dangerous shortfall in retirement savings. But as demographic issues differ between member states, experts question why Brussels is taking the lead.

Just before EU institutions broke up for the summer, the European Commission (EC) announced wide-ranging proposals for a Pan-European Personal Pension (PEPP) to boost old age savings. The voluntary scheme will allow some 240 million working age adults to contribute to private savings accounts that will be fully portable if they choose work in other EU states.

PEPP is meant to supplement the state pension provision as well as retirement schemes offered by employers. With the likes of Germany, Britain, Spain and Greece facing huge deficits in their private and public pension schemes, Brussels believes the proposals will help plug the retirement gap and at the same time, create a bigger market for financial services providers to operate.

Last year, accountancy firm Deloitte estimated some 2 trillion euros ($2.4 trillion) per year is needed to address the pensions savings shortfall across Europe, which is unlikely to come from individual member states. It warned that Ireland and Spain had seen the biggest increase in the pension savings gap over the previous six years, and that Germany was the largest at 461 billion euros. The Deloitte research was commissioned by insurance giant Aviva.

As Europe returns to work and gets a chance to digest the plans for PEPP, some academics are skeptical about whether the proposals will offer better returns for workers and if the new pension products will increase the overall level of retirement savings, which is one of Europe's most pressing 

Read more: Can new EU-wide pension help savers dodge retirement crisis? | Business | DW | 08.09.2017

USA: Flood Insurance: Most Florida flood zone property not insured

As Hurricane Irma bears down on Florida, an Associated Press analysis shows a steep drop in flood insurance across the state, including the areas most endangered by what could be a devastating storm surge.

In just five years, the state's total number of federal flood insurance policies has fallen by 15 percent, according to Federal Emergency Management Agency data.

Florida's property owners still buy far more federal flood insurance than any other state - 1.7 million policies, covering about $42 billion in assets - but most residents in hazard zones are badly exposed.

With 1,350 miles of coastline, the most in the continental United States, Florida has roughly 2.5 million homes in hazard zones, more than three times that of any other state, FEMA estimates. And yet, across Florida's 38 coastal counties, just 42 percent of these homes are covered.

In the counties being under at least partial evacuation orders Wednesday (Collier, Broward, Monroe and Miami-Dade), where 1.3 million houses are estimated to be in flood hazard zones, the percentage is an even lower 34.3 percent.

Florida's overall flood insurance rate for hazard-zone homes is just 41 percent. Fannie Mae ostensibly requires mortgage lenders to make sure property owners buy this insurance to qualify for federally backed loans, and yet in 59 percent of the cases, that insurance isn't being paid for.

Nationwide, only half the 10 million properties that need flood insurance have it, said Roy Wright, who runs the National Flood Insurance Program. He told the AP last week that he wants to double the number of policies sold nationally in the near future.

Read more: Most Florida flood zone property not insured

International Trade: U.S. trade gap deficit edges up; deficit with China at 11-month high

The U.S. trade deficit increased less than expected in July as both exports and imports fell, suggesting that trade could contribute to economic growth in the third quarter.

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday the trade gap rose 0.3 percent to $43.7 billion. June’s trade deficit was revised down slightly to $43.5 billion from the previously reported $43.6 billion.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the trade shortfall widening to $44.6 billion in July. When adjusted for inflation, the trade deficit increased to $61.6 billion from $60.8 billion in June. The so-called real goods deficit in July was below the second-quarter average of $62.4 billion.

While that suggests trade could add to gross product in the third quarter, economists at Wrightson ICAP cautioned that Hurricane Harvey could significantly impact commodity prices and trade volumes, and push up the trade deficit in September.

The politically sensitive U.S.-China trade deficit increased to an 11-month high in July. That ongoing deficit has grabbed the attention of President Donald Trump, who has blamed it for helping to decimate U.S. factory jobs as well as stunting U.S. economic growth.

Trump, who argues that the United States has been disadvantaged in its dealings with trade partners, has ordered the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which was signed in 1994 by the United States, Canada and Mexico.

On Saturday August 2,  Trump threatened to withdraw from a free trade deal with South Korea.

 Read more: U.S. trade gap edges up; deficit with China at 11-month high | Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

Global Economy: Is it time to ‘just say no’ to the US stock market, the most overvalued in the world?- by Proinsias O'Mahony

A record number of fund managers believe global equities to be overvalued, with an overwhelming majority seeing the US market as the most overvalued in the world. Is it time to “just say no” to the S&P 500?

The “just say no” message refers to the title of a new white paper co-authored by high-profile GMO strategist James Montier. GMO, headed by iconic investor Jeremy Grantham, has $77 billion in assets under management and is famous for having predicted past market crises, such as the Japanese bubble that burst in 1989 as well as the 2000-02 dotcom implosion and the 2008 global financial crisis. 

The title of Montier’s latest paper sounds like an anti-drugs warning, and the content of the paper is similarly stark.

Those US gains have been largely driven by an expansion in profit margins and valuation multiples to historically lofty levels. Future gains, says Montier, require either that dividends and earnings start growing at a much faster pace – unlikely, as both are “remarkably stable” over time – or that valuation multiples and margins continue to expand. 

“The historical record for this assumption is quite thin, to put it kindly,” says Montier. Margins and multiples tend to revert to the mean over time, so buying US stocks “now requires a belief that ‘it’s different this time’ with respect to the valuations that people will put on stocks, and the margins that companies can command”. 

The S&P 500, Montier notes, has “trounced the competition” over the last seven years. It has risen 173 per cent, compared to just 71 per cent (in dollar terms) for the MSCI EAFE, the most widely-followed index tracking non-US developed markets. Emerging markets lag even further behind, rising just 30 per cent over the same period.

Still, while Montier’s bearish message may be an especially blunt one, he is far from being a lone voice on the subject of US valuations. Out of 20 valuation metrics tracked by Ned Davis Research, 16 suggest US stocks are extremely overvalued. As noted earlier, Merrill Lynch’s latest fund manager survey shows a record number see global equities as overvalued, with concerns largely centred on the US investment universe. 

The last time fund managers were nearly as concerned was back in the late 1990s. Goldman Sachs recently cautioned that 10-year returns have been negative or below historical norms 99 per cent of the time when valuations were as high as they are today. Vanguard founder John Bogle, who has spent his life preaching the buy-and-hold message, estimates the US market will be hard-pressed to deliver annualised returns of more than 2 per cent over the next decade. 

While there is broad agreement that US stocks are overvalued relative to history and that low future returns are likely, most observers agree valuation cannot be used as a timing tool. An expensive market is not necessarily ripe for a fall; it simply means future long-term returns are likely to be disappointing. Rather than selling, concerned commentators like Robert Shiller suggest investors rotate into non-US markets or underweight the US in their portfolio.

Read more: Is it time to ‘just say no’ to the US stock market?

NAFTA negotiators encounter early sticking points on visas, supply management and other issues

Negotiators have run into a series of early sticking points on nearly every major element considered key to achieving a new NAFTA agreement, The Canadian Press has learned.

A recurring pattern involves one country raising a prized priority only to have other parties systematically refuse to engage the conversation, said one source with knowledge of how the talks are unfolding in Mexico City.

"The tone is negative," said the source, who made sure to add that it's still early, he remains hopeful a deal can be reached this year, and that obstinacy is to be expected in initial bargaining.

He cited two examples.

One is the Canadians asking for greater access to professional visas. It's a priority not just for the Canadians, but also for businesses that struggle to send staff across the border. NAFTA's visa list is outdated and doesn't include modern digital jobs. The Americans have pushed off that conversation, which risks bumping into that country's sensitive immigration politics.

Canada has returned the favour. The second example cited by the source involves Canada's supply-management system. The U.S. has started to raise it as an issue. While the U.S. has not yet tabled a formal request, with numbers, it has declared its interest in loosening Canada's import controls on dairy and poultry.

Read more: NAFTA negotiators encounter early sticking points on visas, supply management and other issues - Business - CBC News

North Korea nuclear threat: Mattis warns of 'massive military response'

Pentagon chief James Mattis says any threat to the US or its allies by North Korea will be met with a "massive military response".

His comments came after a national security briefing with President Donald Trump about the secretive communist state's latest nuclear test.

Pyongyang says it has successfully trialled a hydrogen bomb that could be loaded on to a long-range missile.

The move has drawn international condemnation.

North Korea has defied UN sanctions and international pressure by developing nuclear weapons and test missiles that could potentially reach the USA.

Note EU-Digest: All.this news hype (CNN etc.) coming from the US about N.Korea rockets and bombs and the need for revenge is totally ridiculous. If North Korea would launch one rocket on any country, including the US,  or neighboring countries, they know they will be totally destroyed. But if the US is crazy (hopefully they are not) to start a.preventive war it could mean a total global conflict and the end of us all. Economic isolation and negotiations is the only way to go.

Read more: North Korea nuclear threat: Mattis warns of 'massive military response' - BBC News

US Economy, Fiscal responsibility, Trade and Fiscal Responsability, USA

Americans say they put a high priority on strengthening the country and looking out for the next generation. Yet the federal government is on an irresponsible and unsustainable fiscal path, with spending programs growing more quickly than the economy can keep up with and tax revenues projected to chronically fall short of spending -- even in relatively good economic times. This leads to an ever-growing debt burden.

We believe, and our experience as an organization has shown, that when Americans are given non-partisan, straightforward information about the nation’s fiscal future, they understand the need to make budgetary tradeoffs and will push their representatives to make hard choices to set the nation on a sustainable fiscal path. That is why we work around the country educating, engaging and empowering citizens to take action.

Read more  Why we advocate for fiscal responsibility Home

Medical Tourism: A Multifaceted Business

Europeans and Canadians have universal health coverage at home, and the US itself is a popular medical tourism stop, so why is medical tourism from the West becoming increasingly popular? Among the reasons are:

• Cost. In the US, universal health coverage is still a goal, not a reality, and health costs are among the highest in the world. For those without health insurance, lower prices – as much 80% less in some countries – can be a dominant concern.
• The excellence of care. Malaysia, Costa Rica and Mexico also have some of the best health care in the world – often in the top five – based not only on affordability but also the excellence of staff and facilities. Looking to Asia, a 2000 report by the World Health Organization rated Singapore the 6th highest in the world.
• Shorter waiting times. They may be able to obtain treatment sooner in another country.
• Privacy. Those who do not wish to disclose a serious illness to acquaintances (heart surgery or cancer treatment) for fear that it would affect their job prospects or cosmetic surgery for fear of embarrassment may find that a trip to Latin America, Europe or Asia can make a good cover.
• Travel. It’s not insignificant that these medical tourism destinations often have beautiful scenery and amenities, too. An exotic environment may help with recuperation. 

But there are risks as well. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warns:

• The language barrier could be a problem which hampers clear communication.
• Other countries may not test and regulate medications for quality and counterfeits as rigorously as one’s native country.
• Antibiotic resistance is rising around the world, but not at the same rate everywhere. It may be higher in a chosen destination.
• After some surgeries, flying poses a greater risk for blood clots.
• Financial. Although costs are less, insurance probably doesn’t cover medical tourism. Even for Europeans travelling to other EU countries, the European Health Insurance Card doesn’t cover scheduled treatment, only urgent medical treatment that cannot be postponed until a return to the home country.

Medical Tourism: A Multifaceted Business - The Market Mogul