USA: The main thing to watch in 2017 in the US and in the world
is the Von Trump family presidency, as dad and the kids likely won't
even wrestle with policy issues, because of their supreme confidence in
their own grasp of issues like the Middle East and nuclear arms.
It would be great if the shock of the Trump presidency sparked genuine
grassroots interest in fixing American's dysfunctional democracy - only
about 55 per cent of eligible voters bothered to go to the polls in
2016 and democracy is retarded by serial maladies, from gerrymandered
electorates to state-driven voter suppression to the role of lobbyists
to big political donations.
As for US-Russian relations, the fallout from Vladimir Putin's alleged
interference in the US elections will likely play out in the first
months of the Trump administration, as Trump himself encounters
resistance from his own Republican camp on sweeping it under the carpet.
China: One thing to watch in 2017 will be the political jostling
and manoeuvring that will heat up ahead of a key Chinese leadership
reshuffle at the 19th Party Congress to be held towards the end of the
year. All eyes will be on any signalling of a potential future successor
to President Xi Jinping, though speculation continues to firm that Xi
plans to defy party convention and remain in power beyond the end of his
second five-year term in 2022.
Taiwan looks set to pass a marriage equality bill allowing same-sex
couples to wed, a move overwhelmingly backed by popular sentiment.
Despite a stagnating economy and strained cross-strait relations,
becoming the first Asian jurisdiction to legalise same-sex marriage will
reinforce its reputation as one of the region's most progressive,
vibrant and confident democracies.
The South China Sea will remain the region's flashpoint with growing
concern about the potential for conflict. Incoming US President Donald
Trump has already raised questions about the "One China" policy after
making a telephone call to Taiwan's leader. What happens in the
strategic waters of the South China Sea, where most of Australia's trade
passes, will depend on how Trump sets the parameters with China's
thin-skinned communist rulers in 2017
Europe: Worst-case scenarios seem to have popped up quite a lot
recently, which is a worry, because the worst-case scenario for Europe
in 2017 is the effective collapse of the European Union. Under the
continuing threat of terrorist attacks and the pressure of incoming
refugees from Africa and the Middle East, politics is turning insular.
Nationalism is on the rise.
On the eastern front, European states will continue to openly flirt with
Russia, or bristle with worry about Donald Trump's commitment to NATO
and their security.
Key elections will test whether the mood is merely grim or actually
apocalyptic. Geert Wilders' anti-Islam, anti-immigration party will
threaten to seize a share of power in the Netherlands, and the National
Front's Marine Le Pen is likely to go head-to-head with social and
economic conservative Francois Fillon in the French presidential race.
Italy may also go to the polls, with the anti-euro Five Star party in rude electoral health.
Then later in the year, Angela Merkel faces a tough fight to prove Germany's political centre can still command a majority.
Meanwhile, Britain will continue to tie itself in knots over what Brexit
is going to involve, and how on earth it can actually be turned from a
radical idea into a not-complete-debacle.
Oh, and, Eurovision is in Kiev this year. That's going to be weird..
The world in 2017: Trump's long shadow and other events to watch