Investors
have enjoyed an amazing run. Stock prices are up by nearly a third over
the past 18 months and seem to be hitting new record highs daily. And
the run-up has been almost a straight line, with stock price
volatility—the ups and downs in prices—the lowest it has ever been.
It’s not that the stock market is a bubble ready to burst. Bubbles are created by speculation, when investors buy a stock simply because its price has risen strongly in the recent past, and therefore conclude it will rise strongly in the foreseeable future. This clearly characterized the tech bubble that inflated around Y2K. Investors piled into the stocks of dot-com companies, many without even understanding what the Internet was. Most of the companies weren’t making any money, and few had business models that seemed likely to ever generate profits. That bubble was also fueled by margin debt, as investors borrowed aggressively against their stock holdings to purchase even more stocks.
So why am I pessimistic? The stock market is overvalued. That is, stock prices are much too high despite the good outlook for corporate earnings. The only other time in the past half century that stock prices have been so highly priced was during the tech bubble. Yes, they’re even more overpriced now than prior to the 1987 market crash.
Corporate
earnings are good, but they are set to grow more slowly, since
businesses will have to give their employees bigger pay increases to
hold onto them, let alone hire new workers.
With unemployment falling
toward 4%, wages will slowly, but steadily accelerate. Businesses will
respond by raising prices more quickly, but they won’t be able to pass
through all of their higher costs to customers. Margins will come under
pressure.
Intensifying
wage and price pressures means that the Federal Reserve will need to
raise short-term interest rates more consistently, and begin to wind
down its balance sheet, which will cause long-term rates to rise. It is
hard to see investors being as enthusiastic about stocks when interest
rates are rising.
Higher rates will also make it more expensive for
businesses to borrow money to buy back their stock, a common practice in
the current bull market.
Then
there is Washington. So far, the dysfunction there hasn’t been a
problem; it has only meant that lawmakers have done nothing. That is
fine for a growing economy. But doing nothing won’t be a winning
strategy for much longer.
Lawmakers must soon agree on a budget or risk
shutting the government down, and they must raise the Treasury debt
limit or risk shutting down the global financial system. Tax reform
would be nice, but odds are that if there is reform it will fall short
of what investors desire.
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Of
course, there is no timing a stock market correction. It could happen
tomorrow, next quarter, or next year. But that time is at hand.
The
author of this report is Mark Zandi is chief economist at Moody’s
Analytics. He has investments of all of the companies mentioned in this
article.
Read complete report by clicking here: Stock Market Crash: Top Economist Says a Drop Is Coming | Fortune.com
