Switzerland-Davos 2020: American politics is the biggest risk facing the world right now, say experts

American politics is the biggest threat facing the world in 2020 and the looming presidential election will stress the country's institutions, influence economic and foreign policy and further divide an already polarized electorate, with potentially huge consequences for the climate, business and investors.

That's the view of experts at consultancies Eurasia Group and Control Risks.

The World Economic Forum, which is preparing to hold its annual meeting of political leaders and CEOs next week in Davos, is also warning of increased turbulence this year from trade conflicts and political polarization that makes it harder to tackle global challenges.

Read more: Davos 2020: American politics is the biggest risk facing the world right now, say experts

Switzerland - Davos Economic Forum: Trump canncels important trip to Davos Economic Forum

Trump cancels ‘very important’ trip to World Economic Forum in Davos

Read more at:

https://www.euronews.com/2019/01/10/trump-cancels-very-important-trip-to-world-economic-forum-in-davos

Davos: Vision versus Economic Capacity and Power - by RM

Economic Power (USA) Versus Vision (EU)

At the end of the Davos economic gathering, it was interesting to note how much the speeches given by European leaders differed from that of the American President.

When the US President spoke, it was clear that he spoke, knowing that he could say just about anything he wanted, given the economic strength of the US. The fact that he added to his now famous slogan , "America first", the words, "but not alone*, just meant that he will support trade agreements and other multi-lateral deals only if they are based on US terms and conditions, certainly not on a multi-lateral basis.

The Europeans,  including their present champion, Emmanuel Macron, spoke with no exception, not only about the positive values of global trade, but also about major issues confronting the world, such as global warming.

The obvious conclusion one could make from these speeches in Davos, listening to these two different trains of of thought, is that unless the one submits to the others way of thinking - there is no harmony possible - and this, regardless of all the enormous challenges the world is facing today.

Unfortunately for the EU, is the fact that the Union is not unified enough to speak with one voice and put their "money where their mouth is", and consequently can not only offer a carrot as an alternative, but also when needed not use a stick against "Bougie Man" Trump.

The result of all this will be, as the saying goes, "when two dogs fight over a bone, another dog will take it",

That dog, if it has not already taken the bone, will be China.

Bottom line : Europe urgently needs to put its house in order, and those member states which like the status quo, better get out, or get thrown out of the EU.

EU-Digest
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Switzerland - Davos: Indian PM Narendra Modi warns of three major global threats

Indian prime minister Narendra Modi told a packed forum in Davos on Wednesday that the world in its current state looked rather unprepared to face the big challenges of the future.

He urged sweeping reforms to modernize and restructure current political and economic institutions, also with a view to reflecting the needs and developments of emerging economies.

Modi singled out three major challenges mankind was facing right now. He said the greatest threat came from rapid climate change and the resulting extreme weather conditions, natural disasters and rising sea levels which threaten the lives and livelihoods of millions of people around the world.

The prime minister identified terrorism, and the radicalization of people in many societies, as the second-biggest threat. Without providing concrete examples, he criticized world powers for, in his eyes, making the problem worse by artificially distinguishing between "bad terrorists" and "good terrorists."

Thirdly, Modi said there was no denying the fact that many nations have become increasingly focused on themselves again as globalization "was losing its luster." He mentioned that many trade agreements "had come to a standstill," with cross-border financial investments dropping in many areas.

Read more: Indian PM Narendra Modi warns of three major global threats | Business| Economy and finance news from a German perspective | DW | 23.01.2018

Switzerland -Davos: How the Fourth Industrial Revolution can help us prepare for the next natural disaster - Scott L David

In the wake of recent devastating hurricanes, floods, wildfires and earthquakes in North America, the Caribbean, Latin America and South Asia, preparing for natural disasters has never been more urgent. Some estimates suggest flooding damage to coastal cities will cost around US$1 trillion per year by 2050. The cost of naturally-caused forest fires - which exceeded $2billion this year and set a new US record - continues to rise.

The human suffering from these emergencies is beyond calculation. Threats to people and property from acts of nature can’t be prevented. Yet, the second-order vulnerabilities they create can be significantly reduced.

The “fog of indecision,” is one such vulnerability that results from institutional hesitancy to collaborate and share data in emergency settings. It’s something that can’t continue. Inaction will only contribute to avoidable suffering.

The technologies and systems of the Fourth Industrial Revolution offer very powerful assets for responding to natural disasters. With nearly 6 billion mobile phone users worldwide, connected individuals have proven to be one of the most effective and efficient ways of strengthening resilience when disaster strikes.

Likewise, social media, drones, satellite imagery and predictive analytics have all been tremendously helpful for coordinating responses and accelerating the recovery of individuals and communities in the aftermath of recent natural disasters.

Read more: How the Fourth Industrial Revolution can help us prepare for the next natural disaster | World Economic Forum

Switzerland: Davos attendees are in for one of the bleaker WEF meetings of late

The threat of large-scale cyberattacks and a "deteriorating geopolitical landscape" since the election of US President Donald Trump have jumped to the top of the global elite’s list of concerns, the World Economic Forum (WEF) said ahead of its annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

The growing cyber-dependency of governments and companies, and the associated risks of hacking by criminals or hostile states, has replaced social polarisation as a main threat to stability over the next decade, according to the WEF’s yearly assessment of global risks, published on Wednesday in London. The Davos forum starts on January 23 in the Swiss ski resort.

While the economic outlook has improved, nine in 10 of those surveyed said they expected political or trade clashes between major powers to worsen. About 80% expected an increased chance of war.

"Cybersecurity is the issue most on the minds of boards and executives, given the visibility of state-sponsored attacks in an environment of increasing geopolitical friction," John Drzik, president of global risk and digital at Marsh, which contributed to the study, said in an interview.

"Businesses are increasingly dependent on technology and are aware that the openings hackers have are growing. As they invest in things like artificial intelligence, they are widening their attack surface."

Drzik said recent high-profile security breaches that have fuelled this perception include the WannaCry ransomware attack, which infected more than 300,000 computers across 150 countries, and NotPetya, which caused two companies losses in excess of $300m. The cost of cybercrime to firms over the next five years could reach $8-trillion, the WEF said.

Similarly, thousands of attacks every month on critical infrastructure from European aviation systems to US nuclear power stations show state-sponsored hackers are attempting to "trigger a breakdown in the systems that keep societies functioning," the WEF said.

In the preview, which would suggest Davos attendees are in for one of the bleaker forums in recent memory, almost two-thirds of global leaders saw risks intensifying from 2017. Climate change and extreme weather remained the greatest concerns of those surveyed. Economic worries receded as a unified pick-up in growth and stocks at record highs suggest the world may finally be r

Read more: Davos attendees are in for one of the bleaker WEF meetings of late

Oil Prices Rebound Above $30. Is A Rally Finally Here?

Oil prices plumbed new lows this week, dropping below $28 per barrel. But oil also closed out the week on a positive note, with huge gains on Thursday and Friday, rallying back above $30 per barrel. The price increase could be a sign that the markets think that oil has been far oversold, that trading this low has been “irrational,” as the head of Saudi Aramco put it this week.

Adding to the upsurge was growing speculation that central banks around the world will take additional action to provide some monetary stimulus amid worrying signs of faltering growth. EU central bank chief Mario Draghi provided the clearest indication yet that his institution may act as soon as March.

It’s a little premature to say a rally is on, but oil prices are going to have to rise at some point with so much production currently underwater. CMC Markets, a UK-based trader, says that $34 is the next resistance point for oil, from a technical perspective. If oil can break above $34 per barrel, then the rally could have some momentum.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Nigeria’s oil minister Emmanuel Kachikwu said that he expects oil to rise to $40 by the end of the year. Oil prices could get worse in the short-term, but “the second half of this year holds more promise,” he said.

Insure-Digest

Switzerland - Davos: Why The Davos Elite Won't Solve Our Global Problems - by Hakan Altinay

The international calendar is peppered with a number of meetings of the elite. This week we have the crown jewel: Davos.

Much of the media love these events. They provide a good photo opportunity as well as a legitimate and safe tag line. The latent assumption is that our key problems are things that elites identify and solve; they possess the requisite expertise, and, of course, power.

But there is the problem of elite narcissism. As thinkers have observed since antiquity, those who seek power are often morally unqualified and those who are qualified often do not lust after power.

Research has shown that chief executives score four times higher on socio­pathology indexes than the rest of the population. Yet other research shows drivers of luxury cars don’t heed pedestrian crossings, whereas drivers of standard cars observe them more consistently.

Read more: Why The Davos Elite Won't Solve Our Global Problems Social Europe