The Wall Street Smoke Screen : Will Dow futures point to a nearly 700 point Monday opening gain despite another oil-price drop

U.S. stock futures rose on Sunday night as Wall Street tried to recover from another decline last week.

Read more at:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

Tourist Industry: Coronavirus concerns, anxiety send US travel industry into a spiral - by Curtis Tate, Dawn Gilbertson and Morgan Hines

A government warning not to board a cruise ship or long flight if you're frail. Convention and event cancellations from coast to coast. Global travel warnings.

The travel and tourism industry has taken hit after hit since the coronavirus outbreak began in January. It's still early for concrete data, but economists and industry executives fear 9/11- or recession-like repercussions. Travel demand plummeted, then and was slow to recover.

"Unfortunately, they're on the front lines on the effect of this virus. They're getting pummeled,'' said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics.

He said the travel and tourism impact from coronavirus could be greater than the fallout from 9/11, or the 2003 SARS outbreak, because of the global nature of the crisis.

"Global travel is effectively shutting down,'' he said. "It's going to take a while to get it back up and running again. This is going to be a very tough year for the travel and tourism industry.''

The International Air Transport Association, which represents global airlines, last week boosted its estimates of the global financial hit from COVID-19 from $29.3 billion to between $63 billion and $113 billion as the bookings falloff has spread beyond Asia.

That would put airlines in their most precarious position since after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. In the U.S. alone, the travel industry lost $40 billion from 2001 to 2005.

 Read more at: Coronavirus concerns, anxiety send travel industry into a

Global Economy: Oil prices fall on oversupply worries as virus hits China demand

Oil prices on Monday extended their decline from an early January peak above $70 as the spectre of excess supplies loomed over the market after the spreading coronavirus outbreak hit demand in China, the world's largest oil importer.

Read more at:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-oil/oil-prices-fall-on-oversupply-worries-as-virus-hits-china-demand-idUKKBN20408O

PERSIAN GULF: Oil tankers attacks in Persian Gulf drive crude prices up almost 5 %

More oil tanker attacks in Persian Gulf drive crude prices up almost 5%

Read  more at :
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/tankers-gulf-oman-hormuz-1.5173404

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Oil Prices Rebound Above $30. Is A Rally Finally Here?

Oil prices plumbed new lows this week, dropping below $28 per barrel. But oil also closed out the week on a positive note, with huge gains on Thursday and Friday, rallying back above $30 per barrel. The price increase could be a sign that the markets think that oil has been far oversold, that trading this low has been “irrational,” as the head of Saudi Aramco put it this week.

Adding to the upsurge was growing speculation that central banks around the world will take additional action to provide some monetary stimulus amid worrying signs of faltering growth. EU central bank chief Mario Draghi provided the clearest indication yet that his institution may act as soon as March.

It’s a little premature to say a rally is on, but oil prices are going to have to rise at some point with so much production currently underwater. CMC Markets, a UK-based trader, says that $34 is the next resistance point for oil, from a technical perspective. If oil can break above $34 per barrel, then the rally could have some momentum.

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Nigeria’s oil minister Emmanuel Kachikwu said that he expects oil to rise to $40 by the end of the year. Oil prices could get worse in the short-term, but “the second half of this year holds more promise,” he said.

Insure-Digest

The Netherlands: Drop in oil prices of 30% not reflected in Dutch gasoline prices at the pump

After the price for oil collapsed rather dramatically during the past year many people looked forward to lower feul prices at the pump.

Unfortunately the 30% drop in oil prices did not reflect in a similar drop at the pump this past year.

In the Netherlands one liter  of unleaded Euro95 today averages €1,54. A year ago the gasoline price for that same liter averaged €1,62.  A drop of only 5 % at the pump  and this while the oil price dropped 30%..

Obviously one has to also include such items as Government Taxes/VAT ,and  the oil companies profit margins.

Rgardless, however, based on all this factors, this can not amount to 25% of the 30% drop in oil prices.

Somewhere along the line the customer is being robbed and the finger seems to point to the oil companies who still seem to be making  record profits at the pump.

Almere-Digest.

OilPrice Intelligence Report: Outlook For Oil In 2016 Still Grim

As we head into the holidays, there may be a shortage of holiday cheer for energy companies and their investors. Here’s hoping to a much improved New Year!

Oil prices saw no relief since last week, with the surprise jump in the active rig count in the United States weighing on the market. Baker Hughes reported an increase of 17 for oil rigs (offset by a decline in the gas rig count), a bearish signal that suggests that some drillers feel they can still make money drilling despite rock bottom oil prices. To be sure, there is a lag time between oil prices and the rig count figures, and the metric is not a perfect measure of market conditions. But the increase caught the markets by surprise, sending oil prices down to 11-year lows, surpassing the low points logged during the depths of the financial crisis in 2009.

There are few reasons to be bullish right now, although most market watchers still target late 2016 as the period in which things start to turn around. "We view the oversupply as continuing well into next year before rebalancing in the fourth quarter 2016," Goldman Sachs said in recent report. "Our base case remains that the global oil stock build will on aggregate remain shy of storage capacity, although the storage buffer has once again narrowed." Mild temperatures continue to suppress demand across the United States for natural gas and liquid fuels, which could ultimately result in a much smaller drawdown during winter heating season than is typical.

Of course, oil prices staying below $40 per barrel is extremely negative for oil and gas producers. With hedges rolling off, 2016 is shaping up to be a very painful year for the entire sector. S&P recently warned that financial stress in the energy industry will likely rise as we head into the New Year. “Hedges represent 8% (1.619 MMboe/d) of total expected oil and gas production in 2016, a marked decline from the 15% hedged last year,” S&P said this month. “The trend continues for speculative-grade companies, which have just 29% (1.437 MMboe/d) of total oil and gas production hedged next year compared with 45% in 2015.”

The economic damage inflicted upon oil-producing countries has also been well documented and closely watched. Nigeria is one such country. The West African OPEC member has seen its budget decimated by low oil prices, and the government has come under increasing pressure to devalue its currency, the naira, because of the weakening economy and shrinking foreign exchange. Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari has held out, projecting confidence that Nigeria can maintain the peg. However, he recently opened the door to a potential devaluation in January.

Buhari said that the central bank could introduce “some flexibility” that would encourage some capital inflows. Nigeria has suffered from a shortage of dollars, which has made some economic transactions difficult in the country. A devaluation would logically address this problem. “I am aware of the problems many Nigerians currently have in accessing foreign exchange for their various purposes,” the president said. “These are clearly due to the current inadequacies in the supply of foreign exchange. We are carefully assessing our exchange-rate regime, keeping in mind our willingness to attract foreign investors, but at the same time managing and controlling inflation to a level that won’t harm average Nigerians.”

Weakening currencies is a problem throughout the oil-producing world, with significant declines exhibited in South America, Africa, the Middle East and Eurasia. Countries with flexible exchange rates have seen their currencies plunge over the past year while countries with fixed exchange rates are coming under extreme pressure to abandon their pegs and devalue. Nigeria’s naira peg could be next on the firing line, but it surely will not be the last.

Another bearish black swan event looming over the oil markets is latent Libyan oil capacity. Rival factions in Libya have carved up the country and kept the North African oil producer from exporting to its full potential. Libya’s oil output has been down around 400,000 barrels per day for the past year or two, while its Qaddafi-era capacity stood at 1.6 million barrels per day. However, the rival governments in Libya have started the peace process, and signed an UN-brokered accord last week. It is unclear whether the peace deal will hold, but if violence and instability begins to abate, Libya could start to bring some oil production back to international markets. The exact amount is unclear, but if, say, 500,000 barrels were brought back online sometime in 2016, that would be extremely negative for oil prices. That would essentially offset the expected declines from U.S. shale next year.