Currency wars coming in leaderless world: Citi's Buiter

The global economy is bound to remain leaderless, as G-20 countries meeting in Shanghai on Friday are unlikely to produce anything more than a rhetorical statement, Citigroup's chief economist Willem Buiter said.

Buiter said Friday the global economy truly needs an agreement on exchange rates that will be defended through intervention, as well as expansion of supportive monetary policy, fiscal stimulus modulated according to countries' needs, and "supply side reforms that sustain animal spirits in the corporate sector."

"You're not going to get any of that in substance. There is no leadership in the global economy. And there is no willingness to forgo the short-run benefits of beggar-thy-neighbor exchange rate depreciation. Currency wars will be the reality of what we'll see over the next few years," he told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street".

Buiter and Citigroup analysts said in a note Wednesday the risk of the global economy falling into a recession is rising as fundamentals remain poor.

"We are currently in a highly precarious environment for global growth and asset markets after two to three years of relative calm," Citigroup said, noting that global growth was "unusually weak" in the fourth quarter at around 2 percent.

Buiter said central banks are nearly out of ammo when it comes to using conventional and unconventional monetary policy as a means of stimulating demand.

"If we have a further slowdown, it will have to be combined more with the fiscal policy, and the world just isn't ready for that, institutionally, politically and any other way," he said.

At the same time, the private and public sectors in most advanced economies have become highly leveraged, he noted.

Citi is not expecting a U.S. recession, provided no surprises from abroad send the dollar sharply higher. But it does anticipate a further incremental slowing in the absence of a supportive Federal Reserve and as corporations ratchet up debt following a period of "unspectacular, mediocre" growth, he said.

Global Trade: World trade records biggest reversal since crisis - by Shawn Donnan and Joe Leahy

Weaker demand from emerging markets made 2015 the worst year for world trade since the aftermath of the global financial crisis, highlighting rising fears about the health of the global economy.

The value of goods that crossed international borders last year fell 13.8 per cent in dollar terms — the first contraction since 2009 — according to the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis’s World Trade Monitor. Much of the slump was due to a slowdown in China and other emerging economies.

The new data released on Thursday represent the first snapshot of global trade for 2015. But the figures also come amid growing concerns that 2016 is already shaping up to be more fraught with dangers for the global economy than previously expected.

Those concerns are casting a shadow over a two-day meeting of G20 central bank governors and finance ministers due to start on Friday. Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor, was set to warn the gathering that the global economy risked “becoming trapped in a low growth, low inflation, low interest rate equilibrium”.

His comments will echo the International Monetary Fund, which this week warned it was poised to downgrade its forecast for global growth this year, saying the world’s leading economies needed to do more to boost growth.

The Baltic Dry index, a measure of global trade in bulk commodities, has been touching historic lows. China, which in 2014 overtook the US as the world’s biggest trading nation, this month reported double-digit falls in both exports and imports in January. In Brazil, which is now experiencing its worst recession in more than a century, imports from China have collapsed.

Exports from China to Brazil of everything from cars to textiles shipped in containers fell 60 per cent in January from a year earlier while the total volume of imports via containers into Latin America’s biggest economy halved, according to Maersk Line, the world’s largest shipping company.

“What we are seeing right now from China is not only a phenomenon for Brazil; we are seeing the same all over Latin America, declining [Chinese export] volumes into all the markets,” said Antonio Dominguez, managing director for Maersk Line in Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Argentina. “It has been going on for several quarters but is getting more evident as we move into the year [2016].”

Read more: World trade records biggest reversal since crisis - FT.com

Oil Supply: Is there a possibility of an OPEC production cut?

The speculation surrounding the possibility of an OPEC production cut have not gone away, despite the comments from Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi earlier this week.

Venezuela’s oil minister stoked the markets when he said on Thursday that representatives from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Venezuela would meet in mid-March to discuss cooperative efforts to stabilize oil prices. Oil prices shot up more than 1 percent on the news, but there isn’t much new here to trade on.

hese countries will move forward with the production freeze, but that will likely have only a limited effect on the fundamentals in the short-term. An actual production cut remains a remote possibility for now.

Insure-Digest

EU -USA: The Geopolitics of America’s Military Presence in Europe

 The region of Europe has three main aspects which makes it important for the US in geopolitical terms. The first aspect is the Arctic or the High North. Arctic encompasses territory (land and sea) of eight countries, six of them are in Europe including Russia. The Arctic region is becoming more popular every year in global politics, and not only because it has vast deposits of resources like natural gas and oil. Scarcely populated and with the melting of ice the Arctic will become a major shipping route, its estimated that using the Arctic route ships can shorten their way from Hamburg to Shanghai for almost 4,000 miles.

This will be a huge boost to all shipping companies across the globe, and since its in the Arctic chances for pirates are rather low. The US has the best path for contesting this region exactly from Europe. The northern countries have good infrastructure and experience in the Arctic region, and their proximity to Russia can be helpful if the conflict occurs. The next aspect is the Europe’s access to the Middle East through the Balkans. Although the Balkan is relatively stable with semi-frozen conflicts, most of the countries are in NATO, and of course Turkey as the most important ally in this part of Europe can provide all the needed support and accessibility to the Middle East. Caucasus region and the two straits, Bosporus and Dardanelle, can also be added here as geopolitical points in which US has a lot of interest. The third aspect is the Mediterranean and North Africa.

Countries in the South of Europe provide substantial naval infrastructure and power projection capabilities across the Mediterranean Sea. Also these countries provide a base access point to the North Africa, this could be observed during the earliest years of the Arab Spring and the civil war in Libya. All these aspects combined make the European region crucial for the US especially if the object

Beside geopolitical interests the US has some of the closest allies in Europe like the United Kingdom, France and Germany. These three countries have significant military and economic power and they are also leading the European Union. One of the most important bilateral relationship is definitely with the UK.

The two countries share a lot of common values and interests, and the UK government is usually the first who supports US actions, both military and political. Also the UK and the US have a high degree of military cooperation, intelligence sharing and even transfer of some nuclear technology. France still stands for one of the most military capable NATO members with military spending of 1.9% of GPD. Good infrastructure, vast military industry and nuclear capabilities allow France to have a solid deterrent force thus strengthening the whole NATO structure. However, plans like job cuts in defense department and lower military budget which the government wants to achieve, can leave some bad marks on the relations between NATO and the US, especially since the US expects a more active approach from their allies in the conflicts across the Middle East and Ukraine. As a powerhouse in Europe, Germany doesn’t fully commit to the NATO or the US actions in terms of military power.

The budget which is 1.3% of GDP is usually spent on personnel costs and building rents which leads to a decline in money for other military equipment. Furthermore, the government is lowering the total number of servicemen in the military from 205,000 to 185,000 personnel. Also Germany lacks the capability of tactical and strategic airlift, and the government plans to cut procurement and decommission certain specific capabilities which will mostly effect the Army and the Air Force. All these remarks are not welcomed by the US or some other NATO members, despite the public call for broadening Germanys participation in peacekeeping missions made by Germanys Defense Minister Ursula von der Layen.

US military presence in Europe reached its peak in the fifties with more than 450,000 troops operating on more than 1,200 sites. After the end of the Cold War the US military presence in Europe rapidly decreased to 213,000 servicemen, and later in 1993 it decreased even further to 112,000 servicemen. Today there are 67,000 American troops permanently stationed across Europe. Military infrastructure and the US military in Europe (EUCOM) can be classified in sections.

Although the US Government is trying to cut spending on foreign military presence, the Pentagon won’t allow strategic points like EUCOM to suffer, especially now when the new global adversaries are on the rise. Still undisputed in their military spending the US is trying to become more effective with their troop deployment and the maintenance of such large military force. President Obama’s administration program of removing US troops from Iraq and Afghanistan has already shown bad results. Although Europe is nothing like those regions, further removal of US forces could result in major power shifts. Probably one of the future objectives of EUCOM and NATO will be deeper military involvement in Eastern Europe, more precisely in Baltic states. Of course, these developments will be governed by finance and the amount of threat for the US global interests in other regions like the South China Sea, the Middle East and the North Africa.



Read more: The Geopolitics of America’s Military Presence in Europe | Global Research - Centre for Research on Globalization

China - Economy Chinese central bank chief hints at more stimulus for slowing economy - by Martin Farrer

China still has more room and tools in its monetary policy to tackle the slowdown, People’s Bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan tells G20 finance meeting

The head of China’s central bank has dropped a strong hint that Beijing is preparing to launch another round of stimulus as he sought to reassure the financial markets about the country’s flagging economy.

China had more room and tools in its monetary policy to tackle downward pressure in the economy, and its fiscal policy would be more proactive, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said on Friday.

Zhou, speaking at a conference held by the Institute of International Finance in Shanghai in conjunction with a G20 meeting of central bank governors and finance ministers, also said that the direction of China’s reforms would not change, but that the pace might change.

“While the reform direction is clear, managing the reform pace will need windows (of opportunity) and conditions ... The pace will vary, but the reform will be set to continue and the direction is not changed,” Zhou said in English.

At the same time, policy makers need to strike a balance between growth, restructuring and managing risks to the economy.

Read more: Chinese central bank chief hints at more stimulus for slowing economy | Business | The Guardian

Cybercrime: Third of global firms now hit by cybercrime reports Survey

Economic crime is on the rise, with cybercrime affecting almost a third of global businesses, according to the latest survey by audit firm PwC.

In the last two years, 36 percent of organizations surveyed experienced economic crime, the Global Economic Crime Survey revealed on Thursday. The most common forms of economic crime were asset misappropriation, cybercrime, and bribery or corruption.

The rate of economic crime rose in Africa, Western Europe and the Middle East, while 14 percent of total respondents said they had lost more than $1 million as a result of crime in the last two years.

 The environment for economic crime is becoming increasingly complex as the cost of crime rises, according to Andrew Gordon, global leader of forensic services at PwC.

"Too few companies are adapting their risk assessments and control frameworks fast enough," he said in a press release.

"Action on economic crime is not the responsibility of one person or team, it must be embedded within an organizations' culture."

More worryingly, PwC found corporations are becoming less effective at dealing with crime.


Read more: Third of global firms now hit by cybercrime: Survey

Europe’s Economy Strains as Global Slowdown Takes its Toll - by Jill Ward

The euro area is showing signs of strain from the global slowdown.

Weaker growth and deeper price cuts by companies, as captured in a monthly report by Market Economics published Monday, will raise concerns about the health of the economy. They may also increase pressure on European Central Bank policy makers to add to stimulus at their next meeting in March.

Markit said that its composite Purchasing Managers Index for the euro zone fell to 52.7, the lowest in more than a year, from 53.6. In Germany, manufacturing took a hit from falling overseas demand, while the composite gauge for France signaled “sluggish” economic growth.

“Not only did the survey indicate the weakest pace of economic growth for just over a year, but deflationary forces intensified,” said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit in London. The data “greatly increase the odds of more aggressive stimulus from the ECB.”

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development cut its forecasts for the euro region last week, and ECB officials are reviewing whether their current stimulus program is enough to counter global pressure. They’ve expressed concern that a renewed slump in oil prices is adding to risks that low inflation becomes entrenched.

Markit said euro-region economic growth this quarter may fall short of the 0.3 percent seen at the end of 2015.

“This month’s PMI indicates further deflationary pressures in the euro zone," said Bert Colijn, an economist at ING in Amsterdam. “As businesses continue to charge less for goods and services, it seems unlikely that inflation will pick up in the months ahead, which could be an additional trigger for the ECB to act in March.”

Markit’s German factory index fell to 50.2 this month, barely above the key 50 level that divides expansion from contraction.


Read more: Europe’s Economy Strains as Global Slowdown Takes its Toll - Bloomberg Business

The EU and TTIP: Secret document reveals EU offer to drop 97 percent of tariffs - Justus von Daniels and Marta Orosz

We now know that the TTIP negotiations entered a decisive phase on October 15, 2015. That’s when US and EU representatives laid their cards on the table, exchanging offers to cut taxes on imports from each other. Up until then, the US had only broached hypothetical reductions; now they were openly offering to remove 87.5 percent of tariffs completely.

That was more than the EU expected. European negotiators had to agree a better offer, or risk derailing the deal. A week later, they did came up with a new proposal: reductions in 97 percent of tariff categories.

The EU’s secret offer, which CORRECTIV has seen in its entirety, is made up of 181 pages of densely-printed text and can be found here. It’s got almost 8,000 categories: Every species of fish, every chemical has its own tariff category. Importing a parka? Wool, or polyester?

Trade deals are like poker games. Europe’s big offer comes with a big hope: That the US will open up its public bidding process to European firms. That way, European construction companies could bid on contracts to build US highways, or BMW could sell cop cars to American sheriffs.

For the first time, the tariff offer makes clear what TTIP might do for consumers: remove duties, and prices tend to drop. With tariffs on parts gone, cars could get cheaper. Per part, tariffs add just a few cents on the euro, but altogether European car manufacturers could save a billion Euros each year, according to German Association of the Automotive Industry calculations. Manufacturers could then pass the savings on to consumers.

The EU is now waiting for the US to offer a substantial deal on public procurement. In a September 15 report obtained by CORRECTIV, the European Commission says “it definitely expects that the US will offer to open public procurement at a future point in time, in exchange for the revised tariff offer.”

That report also indicated that the US “promised to make a proposal regarding public procurement for the first time” when the EU and US put forth their symmetrical tariff reductions, eliminating 97 percent of all tariffs.
Public bids are a major TTIP sticking point. The EU wants the US to finally open its markets to allow firms like Balfour Beattie or BMW to compete when cities put out a call for bids on a new building or fleet of cars. The US is less than eager, because that would subject domestic companies – which are already allowed to bid on projects in the EU – to increased competition.

Four days before the next negotiation round starts, the European Commission has now indicated that they don’t expect a comprehensive offer. Sources said that the US haven’t sent their proposal yet and that public procurement will be discussed right after the official negotiation round. The 12th round of negotiations started this Monday in Brussels.

Read more: TTIP: Secret document reveals EU offer to drop 97 percent of tariffs | openDemocracy

Britain: Pound Drops as London Mayor Boris Johnson Backs 'Brexit' From EU - Alastair Jamieson

Britain's pound currency plunged in value against the dollar Monday after mop-haired London Mayor Boris Johnson dramatically defected to the campaign for Britain to leave the European Union.

The high-profile announcement dealt a serious blow to Prime Minister David Cameron ahead of the June 23 referendum that could see Britain vote to exit the trading bloc.It was followed by a string of similar announcements by other senior ministers in Cameron's Conservative government, adding to fears that a so-called "Brexit" is now a real risk.

"I think there is genuine worry that Britain might vote to leave and the uncertainty is going to rise into the referendum," Alvin Tan, a strategist with French bank Societe Generale in London, told Reuters.

Read more: Pound Drops as London Mayor Boris Johnson Backs 'Brexit' From EU - NBC News

Global Economy: Chilling ways the global economy echoes 1930s Great Depression era - by John Coumarianos

One view of what caused the Great Depression in the 1930s is that the Federal Reserve failed to prevent a collapse in the money supply.

This is the famous thesis of Milton Friedman’s and Anna Schwartz’s A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960, and it was, more or less, the view of Ben Bernanke when he was chairman of the Federal Reserve.

The global economy today resembles that of the 1930s in several ominous ways.

Financial author Edward Chancellor recently called attention to a paper written by Claudio Borio, head economist at the Bank of International Settlements, that provides a fuller picture of the causes of the Great Depression. The paper also draws parallels between global economic conditions that led to the rise of protectionism in the 1930s and our situation now.

Now, as in the 1930s, the global economy is stretched. A low interest-rate regime in the developed world has encouraged lending to emerging markets. Additionally, China’s and Europe’s banking systems are burdened with bad debts.

Moreover, last year, as Chancellor reports, emerging markets experienced their first capital outflows in nearly three decades, and that movement of capital appears to be continuing in 2016. Ratings agencies have downgraded South Africa and Brazil sovereign debt, while commodity prices continue to plunge.
Protectionism is in the air with the European Union and the U.S. imposing tariffs on Chinese steel. Also, anti-immigration sentiment is rising.

Although the additional restrictions imposed by a gold standard don’t exist today, the peg of Chinese yuan to the U.S. dollar DXY, +0.05%  is unsustainable in Chancellor’s opinion, as may be the euro EURUSD, -0.1617%

So much elasticity or the buildup of imbalances can be painful during the process of restoring balance. Therefore, regarding monetary policy, it’s important, according to Borio, to lean “against the build-up of financial imbalances even if near-term inflation remains low and stable.”

Borio’s paper was written in August 2014, so it’s difficult to know what advice he’d have for the Federal Reserve today. But in his paper, he notes that the imbalances that low rates and elasticity produce may “return us to the modern-day equivalent of the divisive competitive devaluations of the interwar years; and, ultimately, [trigger] an epoch-defining seismic rupture in policy regimes, back to an era of trade and financial protectionism and, possibly, stagnation combined with inflation.”

Read more: Chilling ways the global economy echoes 1930s Great Depression era - MarketWatch

US Presidential Elections: US candidates ignore Europe at their peril - by Leonid Bershidsky

In stump speeches and debates, the US presidential candidates only bring up Europe to make domestic political points or highlight the dangers of Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) terrorism or immigration. But ignoring the other major part of what is commonly known as “the West” is a mistake.

If European countries are mentioned at all on the campaign trail, it is in passing. Former US secretary of state Hillary Clinton says that “only China, Germany and the US” can be the sustainable energy power of the future, and she wants it to be the US. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, her Democratic rival, says Germany offers free university education to its citizens, so the US can afford it, too.

Among Republican contenders, Florida Senator Marco Rubio mocks Sanders by saying that the self-described socialist should be running for office in one of the Scandinavian countries. In an early debate, former Florida governor Jeb Bush made a quip about French working hours to highlight Rubio’s spotty attendance record in the Senate, then had to apologise for the remark. Billionaire Donald Trump likes to say that France has the “toughest gun laws in the world”, which failed to prevent the terror attacks in Paris last year. He also has called Brussels “a hellhole” because of its large immigrant population.

That’s pretty much it. Electioneering, of course, is mainly about domestic issues. But it would be wrong to assume that foreign policy doesn’t matter in the 2016 election. One reason that former surgeon Ben Carson, one of the early Republican front-runners, has plummeted in the polls is that he’s been incoherent and gaffe-prone on foreign policy. Sanders is criticised for having a limited understanding of the topic, especially compared with Clinton.

No candidate debate goes without at least some discussion of international issues. The threat from Daesh is the dominant one. Then there’s Iran: The more hardline Republican candidates denounce the accord reached by the Obama administration and demand a tougher stand. Texas Senator Ted Cruz sums up the position in stump speeches: “If someone says they want to kill you, believe them.” It never fails to get a laugh.

These days, European leaders get the impression that even the Obama administration is uninterested in their problems.

Yet it is imperative for the US to show a lot of goodwill toward Europe. It is in its vital interests to keep the European Union together and ensure its success.

The EU is the biggest US trading partner, with three times as much US investment as all of Asia. If it fell apart, the economic effect on the US would be immediate. Among other things, individual European countries would be free to engage in a cut-throat tax competition, creating a sucking sound for US companies the likes of which no protectionist can imagine.

The success of the European integration project is essential to the peaceful existence of the western world, which the US claims to lead. That leadership would lose its meaning if Europe were to disintegrate into smaller, self-interested parts. That would be a disaster, not a reason for Schadenfreude and not one of those “European issues” the presidential candidates like to ignore. ( Bloomberg)

Insure-Digest

US firearms industry marketing guns to children says report from Violence Policy Center

NRA strikes again: marketing gun sales tochildren

The American firearms industry is targeting children as young as six with brightly colored guns and encouraging parents to let children take up shooting at an early age, according to a new report.

The Violence Policy Center, which aims to stop gun violence, said in its report that gun manufacturers are marketing to the youngest consumers because their primary market -- white men -- is aging.

"The firearms industry has set its sights on America's children. Much like the tobacco industry's search for replacement smokers, the gun industry is seeking replacement shooters," the group said in a statement.

"Along with the hope of increased gun sales, a corollary goal of this effort is the creation of the next generation of pro-gun advocates for future political battles."

Examples of "aggressive efforts" to market to children include rifles made with plastic parts so they are easier to handle, with less weight and recoil, the report said. Some manufacturers sell firearms in a variety of kid-friendly bright colors, including pink for girls.

The report also pointed out that the firearms industry and its lobby want parents to let their children "access guns at the earliest possible age."

The National Rifle Association, the main gun lobby in the US, previously had a website for its junior members, divided into "Under 8" and "8 and Up," the Violence Policy Center said.

Now called "NRA Family," the website's content includes a 2014 article reviewing the Thompson/Center HotShot youth rifle, calling it "a tiny gun intended for the very youngest shooters -- the ultimate first gun."
The article cited the manufacturer as saying the rifle is targeted to kids aged six to 12.

Gun violence is rife in the US, where a third of children live in a household with at least one weapon, according to the group Everytown for Gun Safety. Its statistics show that seven children and teens are killed with guns in the US on an average day.

Read more: Flash - US firearms industry marketing to children: report - France 24

Central Banks: Timid central bankers have failed to convince sceptical audience

The job of central bankers more like that of technicians, carefully turning knobs as they fine-tune the economy, or magicians, manipulating the audience into the suspension of disbelief? Most of the time it is the former. Monetary maestros nudge interest rates up and down with meticulous precision.

Yet in extreme cases—such as when economies become trapped in a low-growth rut—central bankers must try to conjure up a change in the public’s economic outlook. Just as uncertain magicians often fail to pull off their tricks, so central banks are finding their audiences in an ever-more sceptical mood.

Economists have long acknowledged the role of mass psychology in business cycles. In 1936 John Maynard Keynes described the “animal spirits” that could drive swings in spending or investment.

The power of an abrupt change in market beliefs came sharply into focus in the early 1980s, when many economies were struggling to clamp down on stubbornly high inflation. Economists at the time worried that using interest rates to rein in inflation would be enormously costly.

Because the public had come to expect high inflation, they reckoned, growth-crushing rate rises would be needed to force down prices and create new consumer expectations. A common estimate at the time had it that reducing America’s inflation rate by just one percentage point would cause economic damage of nearly 10% of GDP.

In this fraught world, central bankers risk falling into what Mr Krugman has called a timidity trap. The longer that knob-turning fails to get an economy out of the zero-rate rut, the less credible markets are likely to find subsequent attempts at regime change. Recent efforts to push interest rates into negative territory seem to have unnerved markets rather than sparked confidence.

Perhaps more importantly, central bankers tend not to adopt major shifts in mandates and targets unless urged to do so by popularly elected governments. It is difficult to muster Rooseveltian resolve without a Roosevelt. Expect growing scepticism about the power of knob-turning until voters choose politicians confident enough to wave a magic wand.
Read more: Slight of hand | The Economist

For Britain's undecided voters, economy could swing EU referendum

Deborah Hastings will only decide whether Britain should ditch its European Union membership on the eve of a referendum likely in late June. She has one key question for those courting her vote: Will leaving make me and the country richer or poorer?

As opinion polls show Britain is divided on the EU, Hastings and up to 10 million other voters, many of them women, have yet to make a decision. How they cast their vote will shape the future of the world's fifth largest economy and the EU itself.

Hastings, a 57-year-old resident of rural Devon in southwest England, votes for Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservatives. She says Britain has long received a "poor man's offering" from what she views as a German and French-dominated bloc. She even blames the EU's emissions rules for forcing the beloved Land Rover Defender 4x4 she drives out of production.

Hastings said Cameron's plans to cut the benefits paid to EU migrants have started winning her over in recent days. But weighing against an 'out' vote, she would be concerned about what would happen to the coach loads of German tourists who support the local economy.

Open to persuasion, she has a message to those who want her vote. Talk less about immigration and give more detail on whether Britain would be better or worse off outside the EU.

"If we left, would we really fall off a cliff?" Hastings asked in Eggesford, a rural parish some 170 miles (270 km) west of London. Voters in southern England are among the most undecided according to a recent YouGov poll.

"Will we get new markets? Which markets will we lose? What will be the import-export controls on both sides?" says Hastings, whose husband and son both intend to back leaving the EU, seeking answers from those wanting a British exit.

Around one in five British voters tell pollsters they have yet to make up their minds. Many are middle-aged women who support Cameron's Conservatives and live outside London and Scotland, two of Britain's most pro-European areas.

If Cameron is to keep Britain in the bloc it joined in 1973, he will need to secure the vote of millions like Hastings.

The rest of Europe is watching warily - Britain is the EU's second largest economy and one of its top two military powers.Deborah Hastings will only decide whether Britain should ditch its European Union membership on the eve of a referendum likely in late June. She has one key question for those courting her vote: Will leaving make me and the country richer or poorer?

As opinion polls show Britain is divided on the EU, Hastings and up to 10 million other voters, many of them women, have yet to make a decision. How they cast their vote will shape the future of the world's fifth largest economy and the EU itself.

Hastings, a 57-year-old resident of rural Devon in southwest England, votes for Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservatives. She says Britain has long received a "poor man's offering" from what she views as a German and French-dominated bloc. She even blames the EU's emissions rules for forcing the beloved Land Rover Defender 4x4 she drives out of production.

Hastings said Cameron's plans to cut the benefits paid to EU migrants have started winning her over in recent days. But weighing against an 'out' vote, she would be concerned about what would happen to the coach loads of German tourists who support the local economy.

Open to persuasion, she has a message to those who want her vote. Talk less about immigration and give more detail on whether Britain would be better or worse off outside the EU.

If we left, would we really fall off a cliff?" Hastings asked in Eggesford, a rural parish some 170 miles (270 km) west of London. Voters in southern England are among the most undecided according to a recent YouGov poll.

"Will we get new markets? Which markets will we lose? What will be the import-export controls on both sides?" says Hastings, whose husband and son both intend to back leaving the EU, seeking answers from those wanting a British exit.

Around one in five British voters tell pollsters they have yet to make up their minds. Many are middle-aged women who support Cameron's Conservatives and live outside London and Scotland, two of Britain's most pro-European areas.

If Cameron is to keep Britain in the bloc it joined in 1973, he will need to secure the vote of millions like Hastings.

The rest of Europe is watching warily - Britain is the EU's second largest economy and one of its top two military powers.

Read more: For Britain's undecided voters, economy could swing EU referendum | Reuters

Alternative Energy: New technique for turning sunlight into hydrogen

A team of Korean researchers, affiliated with UNIST has recently pioneered in developing a new type of multilayered (Au NPs/TiO2/Au) photoelectrode that boosts the ability of solar water-splitting to produce hydrogen. According to the research team, this special photoelectrode, inspired by the way plants convert sunlight into energy is capable of absorbing visible light from the sun, and then using it to split water molecules (H2O) into hydrogen and oxygen.

This study is a collaboration among scientists, including Prof. Jeong Min Baik (School of Materials Science and Engineering, UNIST), Prof. Jae Sung Lee (School of Energy and Chemical Engineering, UNIST), Prof. Heon Lee (School of Materials Science and Engineering, Korea University), and Prof. Jonghwa Shin (Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology).

This multilayered photoelectrode takes the form of two-dimensional hybrid metal-dielectric structure, which mainly consists of three layers of gold (Au) film, ultrathin TiO2 layer (20 nm), and gold nanoparticles (Au NPs). In a study, reported in the January 21, 2016 issue of Nano Energy, the team reported that this promising photoelectrode shows high light absorption of about 90% in the visible range 380-700nm, as well as significant enhancement in photo-catalytic applications.

Many structural designs, such as hierarchical and branched assemblies of nanoscale materials have been suggested to increase the UV-visible absorption and to enhance water-splitting efficiency. However, through incorporation of plasmonic metal nanoparticles (i.e. Au) to TiO2 structures, their photoelectrodes have shown to enhance the photoactivity in the entire UV-visible region of solar spectrum when compared to the existing ones, the team reports.

Prof. Jeong Min Baik of UNIST (School of Materials Science and Engineering) states, “Several attemps have been made to use UV-based photoelectrodes for hydrogen production, but this is the first time to use the metal-dielectric hybrid-structured film with TiO2 for oxygen production.” Moreover, according to Prof. Baik, this special type of photoelectrode uses approximately 95% of the visible spectrum of sunlight, which makes up a substantial portion (40%) of full sunlight. He adds, “The developed technology is expected to improve hydrogen production efficiency.”

Read more: New technique for turning sunlight into hydrogen | Solid State Technology

Brexit fears stalk currency markets ahead of EU summit - by David Oakley, Elaine Moore and Roger Blitz

To be or not to be

Investors are betting that sterling is heading for another big tumble as currency markets are gripped by Brexit fears.

Net short positions on the pound have increased to the highest level since the summer of 2013, according to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.High quality global journalism requires investment.

With prime minister David Cameron expected to announce the date for the vote soon, possibly at the EU summit this week, some investors are predicting a rocky ride for sterling in the currency markets in the next few months.

The pound has fallen about 8 per cent since the middle of November on a trade weighted basis, with investors citing the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit vote, which could come as early as June, as one of the main reasons for the weakness in the currency.

“We need to be prepared for a choppy market,” said James Maltin, investment director at wealth manager Rathbones. “The Brexit debate may be about to heat up. It is yet another uncertainty out there that could hit the UK markets.”

Some analysts fear a potential Brexit could spark a recession, with Nomura, the Japanese bank, warning that the pound could fall 10 per cent to 15 per cent if overseas investors prove unwilling to finance Britain’s current account deficit.

Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, warned in January that concerns about Britain’s exit from the EU could test “the kindness of strangers” that the country relies on to fund its hefty current account deficit with the rest of the world.

Britain has a relatively large current account deficit of 3.7 per cent of gross domestic product. The worry is that overseas investors, which hold £427bn in UK government bonds, or a quarter of the market, might start to sell, putting further pressure on the pound.

Read more: Brexit fears stalk currency markets ahead of EU summit - FT.com

Brexit: Britain's economy will be worse off if it leaves the EU -by Ana Nicolaci da Costa

Britain's economy would be worse off if voters decide the country should leave the European Union, according to an overwhelming majority of economists polled by Reuters who also gave it a 40 percent chance of happening.

All but one of 28 economists in the poll taken this week said the Britain would take a hit if the vote - which could take place by June - meant exiting the EU. The sole dissenter said the economy would be unmoved, not better off.

Arguments about the economy are central to the debate. Supporters of Britain leaving the EU say companies would be less bound by red tape, the country would be able to strike its own free trade deals and its existing EU partners would not want to hurt bilateral trade.

But analysts at some of the world's biggest banks said an exit could shrink Britain's economy by as much as 2 percent over the next couple of years and could take as much as 10 percentage points off GDP over the next decade.

Most of the mainly UK-based market and academic economists polled expected trade to worsen with Britain struggling to negotiate a favourable trade deal with its former EU partners after renouncing membership of the world's largest trading bloc.

Against this backdrop, a slim majority of economists see Britain's hefty current account deficit widening, underscoring a risk highlighted by the Bank of England.

Britain has been among the fastest-growing rich economies in recent years. But economists worry that an exit from the EU could hurt its prospects if exporters face higher barriers, a weaker pound makes imports more expensive and uncertainty over the shape of a post-EU Britain curbs investment.

"A Brexit outcome will make me more pessimistic for our growth prospects in the second half of 2016 and the medium term," Costas Milas, professor of finance at the University of Liverpool, said.

He said it would trigger "huge" investor  uncertainty and make it more expensive for the government to sell British debt.

Read more: Britain's economy will be worse off if it leaves the EU - Reuters poll | Reuters

What's acceptable to US is not always so to EU: Uber, Taskrabbit, other Silicon Valley darlings urge Europe not to screw their business

In a letter addressed to Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte, currently president of the EU, the companies argue that they are "remodelling whole value chains." They are also "challenging more established methods of product and service delivery, and those whose businesses are based on them."

Covering everything from dog sitters to car sharing, art rental and multiple room rental services, the representatives of the "European Collaborative Economy Industry" are concerned that the EU's discussions over the "digital single market" will be used by some to limit the development of the businesses by getting local authorities to impose new restrictions that protect the status quo.

"As innovators, we are challenging more established methods of product and service delivery, and those whose businesses are based on them," the letter argues. "This new way of operating is making better use of resources, allowing more efficient allocation of supply and demand, creating new sources of income, promoting micro-entrepreneurship and flexible working and offering greater market choice and convenience."

Uber has most famously run up against taxi regulations in France and Belgium that have seen it banned, fined, picketed and raided. AirBnB has also faced aggressive lobbying from hotel groups threatened by its ability to flood the market with more accessible and cheaper rooms.

We've not heard of the same tactics being applied in the dog sitting or yacht renting market but the letter is hoping to remind politicians that their job is help consumers through competition and their economies through efficiency rather than be swayed by arguments and lobbying from vested interests.

On the flip side, however, an increasing number of European countries are concerned about the risks that the new sharing economy companies may bring. Traditional taxi drivers go through a long-defined approval process that seeks to guarantee riders' safety: Uber's driver selection process has been repeatedly criticized for being significantly less robust.

Likewise, hotels have to meet and maintain strict licensing requirements that ensure visitors are kept safe. Numerous examples exist of problems with insurance or general safety have appeared with services like AirBnB.

As a result of these concerns, countries have asked the EC to look into things and issues guidance on how to apply current EU law to the new companies. It's these guidelines, and an upcoming meeting of the European Competitiveness Council that the companies are worried about.

"We urge Member States to support these objectives and continue to seek to ensure that local and national laws do not unnecessarily limit the development of the collaborative economy to the detriment of Europeans," it pleads.

AirBnB has written an accompanying blog post to the letter it which it asks the EU to "unite behind an agenda for the collaborative economy that secures sustainable economic growth for Europe."

How far that argument goes against the all-too-real fears of liability and damage to established businesses working under existing laws remains to be seen.

Read more: Uber, Taskrabbit, other Silicon Valley darlings urge Europe not to screw their business • The Register

Global Economy: The crash of 2016? - by Robert J. Samuels

You cannot understand the vulnerable state of the U.S. and global economies — and nervous stock markets — without coming to grips with the crash of “emerging-market” countries. Led by China, these are middle-income countries that, along with the poorest countries, account for 85 percent of the world’s population and 60 percent of the global economy, according to Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund.

In many ways, their voyage into the global marketplace is a triumph. Rapid economic growth, driven in part by trade and international investment, has catapulted hundreds of millions of people out of deep poverty. By World Bank estimates, about 13 percent of the world’s population lives on incomes of $1.90 a day or less, but that’s down from 37 percent in 1990 and 44 percent in 1981.

Unfortunately, emerging-market countries are now disappointing in ways that damage the world economy. After the 2008-09 financial crisis, a widespread expectation was that the rapid growth of emerging-market countries would create a safety net for the mature economies of the United States, Japan and the European Union. For a while, that happened. Since 2008, emerging-market countries have provided more than 80 percent of global growth, Lagarde said in a speech at the University of Maryland.

Compared with these heightened expectations, many emerging-market economies have crashed. China is at the epicenter of the problem. Its annual growth, once 10 percent, appears headed toward 6 percent. This, in turn, has led to a collapse in prices for raw materials (oil, metals, foodstuffs), because China’s demand has been weaker than expected. Commodity prices are down about two-thirds from recent peaks, Lagarde said.

The ripple effects have spread. Commodity-producing countries — Brazil, South Africa, Australia, Canada — have suffered setbacks. Companies that borrowed heavily to add capacity are now straining to repay debts. With prices depressed, some banks and bond investors may be stiffed. A Morgan Stanley analysis finds that most U.S. banks have ample reserves against likely defaults. This may be less true of banks in Europe and emerging-market nations. Facing large losses, emerging-market banks have already tightened credit, reports the Institute of International Finance (IIF), an industry group.

The United States cannot isolate itself from these realities. The weakening global economy would be less important if the U.S. domestic economy were booming. It isn’t. Americans spend cautiously because they’re still spooked by the shock of the 2008-09 financial crisis and Great Recession. Consumers try to protect themselves against a recurrence by raising their saving and reducing their debt. Businesses do likewise by skimping on investment projects. A recent Wall Street Journal story carried the headline: “Big Firms Hit Brake as Profit Slumps.”

The pessimism is often self-fulfilling. Consumers and companies act cautiously, producing a shaky prosperity that breeds more caution. To escape this trap, the U.S. economy needs a shove from abroad. The assumption once was that the boost would come from the emerging-market countries. This increasingly seems wishful thinking. It is hard to find large pockets of strong, confident growth anywhere in the world. This is the markets’ somber message: There is only a thin margin for error between continued recovery and dreaded recession.

Read more: The crash of 2016? - The Washington Post

Wall Street: Dow closes at lowest level in 2 years amid global rout - by William Watts

It’s been a brutal morning for stocks. China and Japan were closed, but the rest of Asia saw plenty of carnage which then translated into big falls for Europe.

U.S. stock index futures are pointing to a particularly ugly open that could take major indexes toward two-year lows. S&P 500 futures are down more than 31 points, or 1.7%, while Dow futures are off around 270 points.

Treasury bond prices are jumping, sending yields down hard. The 10-year yield has come off lows burt remains down more than 8 basis points at 1.5928%–not so far away from all-time lows in the mid 1.40s set back in mid-2012.

The yen soared and gold is up more than 3.6%, or $42 dollars, as the scramble for safety continues.

There seems to be no single catalayst. Some commentators are pinning the blame on Janet Yellen’s Wednesday testimony in which she didn’t pour much cold water on prospects for further rate hikes.

But that seems a stretch given that stocks took the testimony relatively well in stride during the testimony. Yellen, will be testifying again Thursday.

Meanwhile, this graphic tweeted out by Rareview Capital does a great job illustrating the vicious circle that seems to be driving market action these days:

Read more: Stock market live blog recap: Dow closes at lowest level in 2 years amid global rout - The Tell - MarketWatch

EU Privacy Laws: EU Commission and United States agree on new framework for transatlantic data flows: EU-US Privacy Shield

EU-US Agreement - Transatlantic Data flows

The College of EU Commissioners recently  approved the political agreement reached and has mandated Vice-President Ansip and Commissioner Jourová to prepare the necessary steps to put in place the new arrangement. This new framework will protect the fundamental rights of Europeans where their data is transferred to the United States and ensure legal certainty for businesses.

The EU-US Privacy Shield reflects the requirements set out by the European Court of Justice in its ruling on 6 October 2015, which declared the old Safe Harbour framework invalid. The new arrangement will provide stronger obligations on companies in the U.S. to protect the personal data of Europeans and stronger monitoring and enforcement by the U.S. Department of Commerce and Federal Trade Commission (FTC), including through increased cooperation with European Data Protection Authorities.

The new arrangement includes commitments by the U.S. that possibilities under U.S. law for public authorities to access personal data transferred under the new arrangement will be subject to clear conditions, limitations and oversight, preventing generalised access. Europeans will have the possibility to raise any enquiry or complaint in this context with a dedicated new Ombudsperson.

Vice-President Ansip said: "We have agreed on a new strong framework on data flows with the US. Our people can be sure that their personal data is fully protected. Our businesses, especially the smallest ones, have the legal certainty they need to develop their activities across the Atlantic. We have a duty to check and we will closely monitor the new arrangement to make sure it keeps delivering. Today's decision helps us build a Digital Single Market in the EU, a trusted and dynamic online environment; it further strengthens our close partnership with the US. We will work now to put it in place as soon as possible."

Commissioner Jourová said: "The new EU-US Privacy Shield will protect the fundamental rights of Europeans when their personal data is transferred to U.S. companies. For the first time ever, the United States has given the EU binding assurances that the access of public authorities for national security purposes will be subject to clear limitations, safeguards and oversight mechanisms. Also for the first time, EU citizens will benefit from redress mechanisms in this area. In the context of the negotiations for this agreement, the US has assured that it does not conduct mass or indiscriminate surveillance of Europeans. We have established an annual joint review in order to closely monitor the implementation of these commitments."

The new arrangement will include the following elements:

• Strong obligations on companies handling Europeans' personal data and robust enforcement: U.S. companies wishing to import personal data from Europe will need to commit to robust obligations on how personal data is processed and individual rights are guaranteed. The Department of Commerce will monitor that companies publish their commitments, which makes them enforceable under U.S. law by the US. Federal Trade Commission. In addition, any company handling human resources data from Europe has to commit to comply with decisions by European DPAs.

• Clear safeguards and transparency obligations on U.S. government access: For the first time, the US has given the EU written assurances that the access of public authorities for law enforcement and national security will be subject to clear limitations, safeguards and oversight mechanisms. These exceptions must be used only to the extent necessary and proportionate. The U.S. has ruled out indiscriminate mass surveillance on the personal data transferred to the US under the new arrangement. To regularly monitor the functioning of the arrangement there will be an annual joint review, which will also include the issue of national security access. The European Commission and the U.S. Department of Commerce will conduct the review and invite national intelligence experts from the U.S. and European Data Protection Authorities to it.

• Effective protection of EU citizens' rights with several redress possibilities: Any citizen who considers that their data has been misused under the new arrangement will have several redress possibilities. Companies have deadlines to reply to complaints. European DPAs can refer complaints to the Department of Commerce and the Federal Trade Commission. In addition, Alternative Dispute resolution will be free of charge. For complaints on possible access by national intelligence authorities, a new Ombudsperson will be created.

Next steps
The College has today mandated Vice-President Ansip and Commissioner Jourová to prepare a draft "adequacy decision" in the coming weeks, which could then be adopted by the College after obtaining the advice of the Article 29 Working Party and after consulting a committee composed of representatives of the Member States. In the meantime, the U.S. side will make the necessary preparations to put in place the new framework, monitoring mechanisms and new Ombudsman.

Background
On 6 October, the Court of Justice declared in the Schrems case that Commission’s Decision on the Safe Harbour arrangement was invalid. The judgment confirmed the Commission's approach since November 2013 to review the Safe Harbour arrangement, to ensure in practice a sufficient level of data protection as required by EU law.

On 15 October, Vice-President Ansip, Commissioners Oettinger and Jourová met business and industry representatives who asked for a clear and uniform interpretation of the ruling, as well as more clarity on the instruments they could use to transfer data.

On 16 October, the 28 national data protection authorities (Article 29 Working Party) issued a statement on the consequences of the judgment.

On 6 November, the Commission issued guidance for companies on the possibilities of transatlantic data transfers following the ruling until a new framework is put in place.

On 2 December, the College of Commissioners discussed the progress of the negotiations. Commissioner Jourová received a mandate to pursue the negotiations on a renewed and safe framework with the USA.

Insure-Digest

The Netherlands: Unilever to cut 240 jobs in the Netherlands

Unilever is cutting 240
jobs in the Netherlands by shifting abroad some operations,
particularly IT.

Some 200 staff members will lose their jobs, as will 40 agency workers.
The jobs, mainly in IT, finance and accounts, are being moved to Mexico,
Bangalore, Manila and Katowice, website Nu.nl reports.

The FNV trade union said Unilever was involved in the ‘massive sale’ of
jobs to low-cost countries. Most of those affected are people in their
30s with young families, union spokeswoman Marjolein Dubbelaar said in a
statement.

Read more at DutchNews.nl: Unilever to cut 240 jobs in the Netherlands http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2016/02/unilever-to-cut-200-jobs-in-the-netherlands/

Unilever is cutting 240
jobs in the Netherlands by shifting abroad some operations,
particularly IT.

Some 200 staff members will lose their jobs, as will 40 agency workers.
The jobs, mainly in IT, finance and accounts, are being moved to Mexico,
Bangalore, Manila and Katowice, website Nu.nl reports.

The FNV trade union said Unilever was involved in the ‘massive sale’ of
jobs to low-cost countries. Most of those affected are people in their
30s with young families, union spokeswoman Marjolein Dubbelaar said in a
statement.

Read more at DutchNews.nl: Unilever to cut 240 jobs in the Netherlands http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2016/02/unilever-to-cut-200-jobs-in-the-netherlands/

Unilever is cutting 240 jobs in the Netherlands by shifting abroad some operations, particularly IT.

Some 200 staff members will lose their jobs, as will 40 agency workers. The jobs, mainly in IT, finance and accounts, are being moved to Mexico, Bangalore, Manila and Katowice, website Nu.nl reports. The FNV trade union said Unilever was involved in the ‘massive sale’ of jobs to low-cost countries.

Most of those affected are people in their 30s with young families, union spokesperson Marjolein Dubbelaar said in a statement.

According to the Telegraaf newspaper, Unilever has pledged to try to find other jobs for the staff members affected. The aim of the move is to further centralise the company’s activities, a spokesman told the paper. This policy resulted in 450 jobs being moved to the Netherlands in 2013, the company pointed out. Unilever has a worldwide workforce of some 175,000 people, of whom 3,200 are in the Netherlands.

Unilever to cut 240 jobs in the Netherlands http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2016/02/unilever-to-cut-200-jobs-in-the-netherlands/

Read more: Unilever to cut 240 jobs in the Netherlands - DutchNews.nl

Banking shares plummet on economic slowdown fears

Shares of large banks and other financial stocks were pummelled on Wall Street Monday as fears of a US economic slowdown heightened worries over deteriorating credit quality.

US banks were broadly lower, but the hardest-hit included Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs
and Morgan Stanley, all down 6.0 percent or more in afternoon trade.

But the sector selloff extended to Europe as well, with German giant Deutsche Bank plunging 9.5 percent and France's Societe Generale dropping 6.1 percent, respectively.

A slowing economy translates into higher loan defaults, weaker credit quality and lower interest rates, all of which are bad for bank profits, said Jim Sinegal, an analyst of banks and payment companies at Morningstar.

A bad economy also depresses capital markets activity, which is especially important to the earnings
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, he said.

Insure-Digest

Ireland remains fastest-growing economy in Europe

Ireland has retained its status as the European Union’s fastest-growing economy, according to European Commission forecasts published this morning.

The Commission’s triannual analysis of the EU’s 2 economies predicts that Irish gdp (gross domestic product) will grow by 4.5 per cent this year, before slowing to 3.5 per cent in 2017. following growth of 6.9 per ce

 Read more:Ireland remains fastest-growing economy in Europe

EU: Economy, Culture And Discourse: Social Democracy In A Cosmopolitanism Trap? - by Wolfgang Merkel

 Globalzsation has changed our worlds domestically and beyond the nation state. Our societies are facing opportunities and risks. It depends not at least on political action what will prevail. Three major factors will be decisive for social and political cohesion in our advanced democratic societies. But they can be changed and are not set in concrete. They are the essential screws for knocking politics into shape.

All three variables can be separated out analytically but, in reality, they are very closely woven together, they overlap and buttress each other. If there’s any mismatch then they may become deactivated; if they overlap then conflicts mount and the problems of integration intensify. Theoretical considerations as well as empirical facts suggest the following basic hypothesis: intelligent political action can create the social and cultural pre-conditions for successful societal integration in liberal democracies. But to do so you must put to one side the postmodern naivety of multi-cultural and cosmopolitan optimism and accept the empirically proven fact that it’s harder to govern heterogeneous societies than homogeneous ones. What is and what should be the case must not be mixed up in any sober analysis.

From the beginning of the 1980s inequality of income and wealth rose in the OECD club of economies regardless of the indicator used: Gini-index, upper and lower quintile, decile, poverty ratio or especially the top 1.0 or 0.1% of the income pyramid. This steep rise in inequality is not the “natural” consequence of the digital revolution, the knowledge economy or bold creative disruption. Mainly, it’s a result of political decisions that have been propagating this particular form of market empowerment and the shrinking of the state for pretty well three decades.

Read more: Economy, Culture And Discourse: Social Democracy In A Cosmopolitanism Trap?

Germany - TTIP: German judges slap TTIP down as unlawful

The German Magistrates Association (DRB) has delivered a slap in the face to the European Union, by coming out against one of the key planks of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) - the special courts allowing investors and corporations to sue national governments if their policies happen to threaten their profits.

"The DRB sees neither a legal basis nor a need for such a court," the association said in a statement issued on Wednesday. The judges added that the assumption that foreign investors currently don't already enjoy "effective judicial protection" has no "factual basis."

Part of the TTIP deal proposed by the European Commission is a new Investment Court System (ICS) meant exclusively to protect investors. According to the DRB statement, the European Commission's definition of an investor's assets is so wide it effectively gives the ICS jurisdiction that "extends from civil law through to general administrative law and social and tax legislation." In other words, it potentially gives corporations the opportunity to sue governments over any piece of legislation it deems a threat.

The judges said the ICS represents a threat to the sovereignty of legal systems already in place in Europe, and they put little faith in the EU's ability to manage it:

"The German Magistrates Association has serious doubts whether the European Union has the competence to institute an investment court," the statement read. "An ICS would not only limit the legislative powers of the Union and the Member States; it would also alter the established court system within the Member States and the European Union."

The judges' statement is being celebrated as a serious setback for the TTIP negotiations by the deal's opponents, not least because the ICS was meant to be a compromise to assuage critics' concerns.

The ICS was proposed by EU trade commissioner Cecilia Malmström as a permanent and organized alternative to the improvised courts in the current investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) and which are currently used in trade deals between individual countries.

"The EU offices must be in turmoil now," said Nick Dearden of UK-based campaign group Global Justice Now. "They were really nervous about ever getting through an agreement that had ISDS in it, because every time they've done consultations on it people have overwhelmingly said they don't like it. So they put this on the table."

Note Insure-Digest: click on this link to see what this so called TTIP treaty is all about and the dangers it entails

Read more: German judges slap TTIP down | Germany | DW.COM | 04.02.2016

Brexit? – The UK’s renegotiation: Keeping up appearances - by Paul De Grauwe

The EU as seen by  Eurosceptics

How far does the UK’s draft renegotiation proposal go in reforming the country’s EU membership?

Paul De Grauwe writes that the deal is largely an exercise in keeping up appearances, with most of the agreed terms making little substantive difference to the UK’s terms of membership. He argues that rather than pretending to have achieved real reform, Cameron should follow a strategy of asserting that remaining a member of the EU, as it is today, will be good for Britain.

Read the complete report : EUROPE – The UK’s renegotiation: Keeping up appearances

Banking Industry: Is there a banking crisis in the United States?- by Bob Pisani

For the past three days, I've been trying to get my hands around this supposed "banking crisis," particularly in Europe.

I get why there is concern in Europe, but I don't at all get the selloff in U.S. banks.

You didn't know there was a banking crisis? Everyone seems to think there is some kind of crisis because the stocks—particularly the European bank stocks—seem to be telling us something is wrong:

European banks YTD

Deutsche Bank down 34.6%

Societe General down 25.8%

BNP Paribas down 24.3%

Banco Santander down 24.0%

UBS down 20.9%

Yikes! This is after one month. The concerns about Europe fall into several buckets:

1) ongoing restructuring and litigation charges.

2) Flattening yield curve/negative rates.

3) slower European growth.

4) Asset management slowdown. Asset management has suffered because wealthier clients aren't investing.

5) Book value issues: European banks did not take the big writedowns that U.S. banks took; there's concern there may be more asset writedowns that would cause book values to decline.

6) Capital positions. While the U.S. banks were out raising capital and selling new shares in 2008-2009, the European banks didn't. The result: U.S. banks don't need to raise capital, but European banks probably do.

I get this. What I don't get is what's going on with U.S. banks:

U.S. banks YTD

Fifth Third down 24.8%

Bank of America down 24.3%

Zions down 21.9%

Key down 19.7%

JP Morgan down 14.8%

Yikes again! Even the regionals are getting hi

Read more: Is there a banking crisis in the United States?

Cuba: Europe’s new market - by Beatriz Beiras

French President Francois Hollande was, in May last year the first Western head of state to visit Cuba after the thaw in relations between the Caribbean island and the US.

It was an investment for the future, a pragmatic move by the president to lay foundations to grow political and economic partnerships.

French companies are already operating in Cuba with the Pernod Ricard group part of a joint venture with Havana Rum. The company’s subsequent global growth has been hailed as an unbridled success by International Managing Director Jerome Cottin-Bizonne. Around 500 million bottles of rum were sold last year.

But France is only the fourth foreign investor with Spain top of the league followed by Canada and Italy.

French tourists number in the region of 117,000 a year and though that figure will rise it is still far behind those travelling from Canada.

They represent over a third of the three and a half million who visited the island in 2015 a rise of 17 percent since 2014.

But accommodation is a problem. There are just 63,000 rooms at the moment putting the tourist industry under strain.Authorities aim to take that number to 85,000 by 2020.

Foreign investment will be vital to help build Cuba’s infrastructure to cope with tourists. Industry experts have voiced their concern the island will not be able to absorb an even greater surge when US commercial airline and ferry services start later this year.

Read More: Cuba: Europe’s new market | euronews, world news

Europe: What to watch out for: in 2016-2017

A revealing and alarming "White Paper" by the Global Agenda Council on Europe


Read more: WEF_White_Paper_Europe_What_Watch_Out_for_2016-2017.pdf