Brexit: david Cameron and Theresa May not on the same wave-length

David Cameron 'let down' by Theresa May, says former PM aide - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37465452

Brexit: Britain's choice: economic security with the EU, or a leap into the dark - by David Cameron

This is the world we could wake up in if we leave Europe – with the massive knock-on effect on jobs, prices and living standards in our country. Because the longer this referendum campaign goes on, the clearer it becomes: those campaigning to leave Europe are inviting the British people to make an extraordinary choice – to be the first major economy in history to deliberately choose a second-rate, more restrictive trading relationship for its biggest market. They want to rip up our membership of the single market – a market that Britain practically invented – in the hope of renegotiating a new arrangement.

We are duty bound to take this proposition very seriously. So let us properly examine the consequences for our economy. What would a new tailored arrangement, of the sort Canada or Switzerland have with Europe, mean for us?

If we take the Canada free trade deal as a guide, we know it would be damaging for agriculture and manufacturing. Our beef and pork exports would face tariffs, and our car manufacturers forced to comply with rules imposing additional costs based on where they buy their components. And of course, there is British steel. We are doing everything we can to help British steel in these difficult times, but the idea that leaving Europe is the answer is a dangerous fallacy: more than half of our steel exports go to Europe. As Stephen Kinnock, the local MP has said, the last thing his constituents in Port Talbot need is to be cut off from Europe.

Leaving the single market would also hit our service industries hard – and this is where our economy faces the biggest risk. Today, British brainpower and ingenuity are in demand. We’re the country that designs the building, advises on the deal, arranges the finance, insures the business, draws up the contracts, produces the film, creates the advertising campaign, sells the product and audits the accounts. All these are service industries.

The figures speak for themselves. Our service industries are growing at a rate of nearly 3% a year on average. They account for almost 80% of our economy. And they amount for 40% of all British exports – with Europe being by far our economy. And they amount for 40% of all British exports – with Europe being by far our biggest exporting market. Indeed, an extraordinary 116,000 small businesses export services to the EU. And new analysis shows that 2 million jobs are either directly or indirectly linked to these exports.

Each of these jobs represent someone with a pay packet; someone providing for themselves and their families. As politicians, we have a duty to tell them what we think the future holds. I can tell each of them, with certainty, that if we stay in Europe their employer will keep the current guaranteed rights to offer services anywhere in the EU.

Those advocating leave can do no such thing. No real-world alternative to EU membership would come close to what we have now. Even the most ambitious trade deal on services the EU has ever struck – with Canada – falls radically short of single market access.

The latest draft of the Canada deal runs to over 1,500 pages – 800 of which are reservations and barriers. A huge proportion of the deal is about restricting business opportunities, not opening them up. We could see new barriers for British business in every key services sector. Here are just 3 examples.

One: aviation. Currently, UK airlines are free to operate routes both between and within other EU member states. But under their deal, Canadian airlines are only allowed to operate routes in Europe if they start or end at a Canadian airport. If this rule was applied to British airlines, they would have to scrap hundreds of routes.

Two: broadcasting. Under EU rules, once a broadcaster is licensed in 1 member state, it can broadcast in all. If we replicated Canada’s deal, companies would have to choose between seeking separate licences in all EU states they want to broadcast in, or moving out of the UK altogether.

Britain's choice: economic security with the EU, or a leap into the dark — MercoPress

Britain: Pound Drops as London Mayor Boris Johnson Backs 'Brexit' From EU - Alastair Jamieson

Britain's pound currency plunged in value against the dollar Monday after mop-haired London Mayor Boris Johnson dramatically defected to the campaign for Britain to leave the European Union.

The high-profile announcement dealt a serious blow to Prime Minister David Cameron ahead of the June 23 referendum that could see Britain vote to exit the trading bloc.It was followed by a string of similar announcements by other senior ministers in Cameron's Conservative government, adding to fears that a so-called "Brexit" is now a real risk.

"I think there is genuine worry that Britain might vote to leave and the uncertainty is going to rise into the referendum," Alvin Tan, a strategist with French bank Societe Generale in London, told Reuters.

Read more: Pound Drops as London Mayor Boris Johnson Backs 'Brexit' From EU - NBC News

For Britain's undecided voters, economy could swing EU referendum

Deborah Hastings will only decide whether Britain should ditch its European Union membership on the eve of a referendum likely in late June. She has one key question for those courting her vote: Will leaving make me and the country richer or poorer?

As opinion polls show Britain is divided on the EU, Hastings and up to 10 million other voters, many of them women, have yet to make a decision. How they cast their vote will shape the future of the world's fifth largest economy and the EU itself.

Hastings, a 57-year-old resident of rural Devon in southwest England, votes for Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservatives. She says Britain has long received a "poor man's offering" from what she views as a German and French-dominated bloc. She even blames the EU's emissions rules for forcing the beloved Land Rover Defender 4x4 she drives out of production.

Hastings said Cameron's plans to cut the benefits paid to EU migrants have started winning her over in recent days. But weighing against an 'out' vote, she would be concerned about what would happen to the coach loads of German tourists who support the local economy.

Open to persuasion, she has a message to those who want her vote. Talk less about immigration and give more detail on whether Britain would be better or worse off outside the EU.

"If we left, would we really fall off a cliff?" Hastings asked in Eggesford, a rural parish some 170 miles (270 km) west of London. Voters in southern England are among the most undecided according to a recent YouGov poll.

"Will we get new markets? Which markets will we lose? What will be the import-export controls on both sides?" says Hastings, whose husband and son both intend to back leaving the EU, seeking answers from those wanting a British exit.

Around one in five British voters tell pollsters they have yet to make up their minds. Many are middle-aged women who support Cameron's Conservatives and live outside London and Scotland, two of Britain's most pro-European areas.

If Cameron is to keep Britain in the bloc it joined in 1973, he will need to secure the vote of millions like Hastings.

The rest of Europe is watching warily - Britain is the EU's second largest economy and one of its top two military powers.Deborah Hastings will only decide whether Britain should ditch its European Union membership on the eve of a referendum likely in late June. She has one key question for those courting her vote: Will leaving make me and the country richer or poorer?

As opinion polls show Britain is divided on the EU, Hastings and up to 10 million other voters, many of them women, have yet to make a decision. How they cast their vote will shape the future of the world's fifth largest economy and the EU itself.

Hastings, a 57-year-old resident of rural Devon in southwest England, votes for Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservatives. She says Britain has long received a "poor man's offering" from what she views as a German and French-dominated bloc. She even blames the EU's emissions rules for forcing the beloved Land Rover Defender 4x4 she drives out of production.

Hastings said Cameron's plans to cut the benefits paid to EU migrants have started winning her over in recent days. But weighing against an 'out' vote, she would be concerned about what would happen to the coach loads of German tourists who support the local economy.

Open to persuasion, she has a message to those who want her vote. Talk less about immigration and give more detail on whether Britain would be better or worse off outside the EU.

If we left, would we really fall off a cliff?" Hastings asked in Eggesford, a rural parish some 170 miles (270 km) west of London. Voters in southern England are among the most undecided according to a recent YouGov poll.

"Will we get new markets? Which markets will we lose? What will be the import-export controls on both sides?" says Hastings, whose husband and son both intend to back leaving the EU, seeking answers from those wanting a British exit.

Around one in five British voters tell pollsters they have yet to make up their minds. Many are middle-aged women who support Cameron's Conservatives and live outside London and Scotland, two of Britain's most pro-European areas.

If Cameron is to keep Britain in the bloc it joined in 1973, he will need to secure the vote of millions like Hastings.

The rest of Europe is watching warily - Britain is the EU's second largest economy and one of its top two military powers.

Read more: For Britain's undecided voters, economy could swing EU referendum | Reuters

Brexit fears stalk currency markets ahead of EU summit - by David Oakley, Elaine Moore and Roger Blitz

To be or not to be

Investors are betting that sterling is heading for another big tumble as currency markets are gripped by Brexit fears.

Net short positions on the pound have increased to the highest level since the summer of 2013, according to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.High quality global journalism requires investment.

With prime minister David Cameron expected to announce the date for the vote soon, possibly at the EU summit this week, some investors are predicting a rocky ride for sterling in the currency markets in the next few months.

The pound has fallen about 8 per cent since the middle of November on a trade weighted basis, with investors citing the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit vote, which could come as early as June, as one of the main reasons for the weakness in the currency.

“We need to be prepared for a choppy market,” said James Maltin, investment director at wealth manager Rathbones. “The Brexit debate may be about to heat up. It is yet another uncertainty out there that could hit the UK markets.”

Some analysts fear a potential Brexit could spark a recession, with Nomura, the Japanese bank, warning that the pound could fall 10 per cent to 15 per cent if overseas investors prove unwilling to finance Britain’s current account deficit.

Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, warned in January that concerns about Britain’s exit from the EU could test “the kindness of strangers” that the country relies on to fund its hefty current account deficit with the rest of the world.

Britain has a relatively large current account deficit of 3.7 per cent of gross domestic product. The worry is that overseas investors, which hold £427bn in UK government bonds, or a quarter of the market, might start to sell, putting further pressure on the pound.

Read more: Brexit fears stalk currency markets ahead of EU summit - FT.com

Brexit? – The UK’s renegotiation: Keeping up appearances - by Paul De Grauwe

The EU as seen by  Eurosceptics

How far does the UK’s draft renegotiation proposal go in reforming the country’s EU membership?

Paul De Grauwe writes that the deal is largely an exercise in keeping up appearances, with most of the agreed terms making little substantive difference to the UK’s terms of membership. He argues that rather than pretending to have achieved real reform, Cameron should follow a strategy of asserting that remaining a member of the EU, as it is today, will be good for Britain.

Read the complete report : EUROPE – The UK’s renegotiation: Keeping up appearances

Britain-EU: 12 reasons why Cameron will lose on Brexit – by Denis MacShane

Commentators on British affairs spend much of their time dwelling on Brexit these days; and while acknowledging the passion and verve of the Out camp, their consensus appears to be that the British are too pragmatic a people to tear down the European status quo. Here’s why the pundits are wrong, and why Britain will vote to leave the European Union in the forthcoming referendum called by Prime Minister David Cameron.

1. British history is different

Britain has not been invaded or occupied, or lost sovereignty to any foreign power, in centuries. When people like Alexander Stubb, Finland’s finance minister, tell the BBC that the EU has brought “peace, prosperity and security and there’s no price tag on that,” such soaring rhetoric may play well in countries that once were taken over by the Nazis or Soviets, but it sounds much too far-fetched and continental for the average Brit.

2. No-growth eurozone

Britain was pro-European from the 1950s to the 1980s when continental Europe had growth rates double or triple those of the U.K. Since the launch of the euro, however, the EU has been the slow coach of the global economy, comfortable but out-performed by North America and the BRICs, with all the exciting economic energy coming from Silicon Valley, Singapore, Apple, Samsung, and anything made-in-China. U.S. universities add economic value. European universities give us cause for philosophical introspection.

3. Britain’s off-shore media owners

Britain is unique in allowing its major newspapers to be owned by men who pay no tax in Britain and who dislike the EU. That’s their right, but as a result, the news coverage of Europe over 25 years has been skewed to crude misreporting and propaganda. Even the Guardian regularly runs pro-Brexit columns from its stars like Simon Jenkins or Owen Jones, the rising young-left writer. The BBC has turned Nigel Farage into a national hero by giving him unimpeded access to all major political discussion programs.

4. Tony Blair

The former Labour prime minister was pro-European, but he dodged all difficult European decisions. He offered a referendum on joining the euro, which meant the pound would never fold into the single currency. He offered a referendum on the EU constitutional treaty, which forced Jacques Chirac to do the same, and thus, with the help of a divided French Socialist Party, brought European integration to a full stop in 2005. Cameron has copied Blair by offering a referendum on Brexit. At least Blair was smarter. He bought time with referendum pledges but never actually held one.

5. The Tory party

From Churchill’s United States of Europe speech in 1946 through Edward Heath’s joining Europe in 1973 to Margaret Thatcher adopting majority voting and thus sharing sovereignty in the European Single Act of 1985 — initiatives all opposed by Labour — the Conservatives were the European party in Britain. Today, all top Tories proclaim themselves Euroskeptic. It has been impossible to be selected to be a Tory MP without swearing an oath of Euroskepticism to party militants.

6. Pro-EU campaign muddles

A dismissive Napoleon said England was a nation of shopkeepers, so the U.K. has found one: Stuart Rose. He began selling underwear in Marks and Spencer and rose to become Britain’s Number One shopkeeper and thus was seen as a natural choice to head the anti-Brexit campaign. But a few months before he featured as a star in the pro-Brexit “Business for Britain” organization, so the double-messaging is confusing.

7. Money

The Vote Leave campaign is drowning in cash, with £20 million raised already. Rich City types, Mayfair hedgies, online betting billionaires, and others sitting on cash piles who like access to top political personalities have funded endless Euroskeptic campaigns since the 1990s, ranging from Sir James Goldsmith’s Referendum Party to Lord Rodney Leach’s Open Europe think tank. By contrast the Remain or In campaigners are badly underfunded. Under the law on political donations, FTSE 100 firms that oppose Brexit cannot give money to political campaigns without a special shareholders’ meeting which CEOs do not want to call for fear of infiltration by UKIP and other anti-EU fanatics.

8. Brussels and Strasbourg

It’s not their fault, but the bigwigs of Brussels and orators of Strasbourg cut no ice in Britain. They are seen as over-bossy, over-greedy, and over there. Nigel Farage boasted on TV in 2009 that he had collected £2 million in expenses as an MEP, and ever since, MEPs have been seen as being on a rolling gravy train. At every meeting on Brexit someone asks why the U.K. should belong to an organization that cannot even audit its books properly. Most top EU leaders speak fluent “EU-nglish.” It is perfectly understandable. But in a nation that is taught by Shakespeare to mock foreign accents, being told to love Europe by non-natives doesn’t work.

9. Brits can have two votes

The most seductive line from the Out campaigners is that nothing much will change. The ambitious mayor of London, Boris Johnson, constantly tells anyone who will listen that the U.K. will “flourish” outside the EU. Others say that a Brexit vote will have a catalytic impact on a sclerotic EU that will finally accept British demands for reforms which return Europe to its earlier condition of sovereign nation-states. And then when Britain is offered a Europe it likes, a second referendum can take it back in.

10. Business

Employer outfits like the Confederation of British Industry, the British Chambers of Commerce, or the Institute of Directors have produced report after report in recent years criticizing the EU for red tape and supporting dialogue with trade unions. Business has told the prime minister he must get concessions from Brussels to weaken social Europe or special protectionist measures for the City. The sound of the CBI, BCC or IOD on Europe this century has been one long moan. Now they are panicking as they realize that their non-stop complaints about what Cameron calls the “bossy and bureaucratic” EU have been absorbed by their members, who may decide to vote down an outfit that British business has been so hostile to.

11. The liberal Left

It’s not just classic little Englander xenophobes who find fault with Europe. The Labour Party in Scotland last weekend voted to oppose TTIP, and for many of the leftish intelligentsia Europe is a wicked conspiracy to promote globalized capitalism with all power flowing to multinationals at the expense of workers. The Guardian recently gave a page to a leading TV economics reporter, Paul Mason, to denounce the treatment of Greece by Europe. Another totemic veteran of British leftism, Tariq Ali, gravely informed his readers that he would vote Out in Cameron’s plebiscite to show solidarity with the Greeks and their Syriza government. He did not seem to know that in the July referendum and September election, the Greeks voted Yes to Europe and then Yes to staying in the euro — so for British lefties to vote the U.K. out of Europe is solipsistic self-indulgence even by British leftie standards.

12. Europeans

The Brits, over the years, have been shaped by foreigners arriving from persecution or poverty — Protestants from France, Jews from Tsarist Russia and Nazi Germany, Poles and Hungarians from Communist tyranny, peasant laborers from Ireland and black, Muslim and Hindu citizens from the Commonwealth. But the enlargement of the EU to poor east and south-east European nations has seen a massive influx of 3 million new inhabitants in little more than a decade. They work hard, pay taxes, pay rent and fill churches. But for the average Brit, too many have arrived too fast, and so the cry to “regain control of our frontiers” resonates.

Denis MacShane is a former minister of Europe in Tony Blair’s Labour Government. He is the author of “Brexit: How Britain Will Leave Europe” (IB Tauris, 2015) and works as an adviser on European politics and policy in London and Brussels.

Read more: 12 reasons why Cameron will lose on Brexit – POLITICO