EU-US Trade War: A flood of new data from the US and eurozone suggests recession risks are flashing red. Here's a full rundown of the wreckage - by Ben Winck

Key economic metrics are flashing red for the US and the European Union as tensions between the two reach new highs.

The latest readings from prominent purchasing managers' indexes show manufacturing sectors the US and EU struggling amid global trade conflict and slowing economies. Service and non-manufacturing industries also slowed through September in both areas.

The negative signs arrive after the WTO granted the US permission to levy $7.5 billion in tariffs on EU imports, specifically targeting Boeing competitor Airbus.

Further escalation of trade conflict between the bloc and the US could plunge the two economies into deeper economic woes.

Read more at: A flood of new data from the US and eurozone suggests recession risks are flashing red. Here's a full rundown of the wreckage. | Markets Insider

EUROPEAN Central Bank: Rates to remain unchanged despite weakening economy

ECB to keep rates unchanged amid weakening economy European Central Bank policymakers on Thursday responded boldly to fears of a eurozone slowdown by announcing that interest rates would stay unchanged for the rest of the year and launching a fresh round of super-cheap loans to banks.

 

Read more at: 

http://www.france24.com/en/20190307-european-central-bank-ecb-interest-rates-growth

EU Economy: Italy, Germany Drag on Euro-Area Economy as EU Cuts Outlook - by Viktoria Dendrinou

The European Commission slashed its growth forecasts for all the euro region’s major economies from Germany to Italy and warned that Brexit and the slowdown in China threaten to make the outlook even worse.

The European Union’s executive arm delivered a downbeat report on Thursday that shaved a whole percentage point off its 2019 projection for Italy, now seen with minimal expansion of just 0.2 percent for the whole year. Officials in Brussels warned that the region’s outlook faces “substantial” risks.

The gloomier forecasts reflect more pronounced weakness in the region, which stumbled at the end of 2018 as political instability continued to rock Italy, violent protests in France depressed output, and Germany’s car industry struggled to rebound from changes in regulation. Global trade uncertainty and a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China also pose external risks to the economic outlook.

Read more at: Italy, Germany Drag on Euro-Area Economy as EU Cuts Outlook - Bloomberg

EU Economy: British economic growth tipped to be slowest in Europe next year, but rest of European Economies also slowing down - by Richard Partington

The euro area of 19 countries including Germany, France and Italy is forecast to slow from a growth rate of 2.1% this year to 1.9% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020, as the wider region enters a period of weaker growth following the strongest year of the past decade in 2017.

It comes as the wider global economy is unsettled by Donald Trump’s trade disputes with China and Europe, which have reduced demand for manufactured goods and stifled business investment.

Despite the weaker outlook for the British economy, growth figures have shown Britain managing a better performance than the eurozone over recent quarters.

Statistics due on Friday are expected to show UK economic growth of 0.6% for the third quarter. Economists at HSBC believe Germany is likely to record its first drop in quarterly economic output, of 0.1%, for more than three years.

In the IMF’s latest health check on the region, it warned the European economy would probably run into turbulence in the next few years.

The Washington-based fund said all likely Brexit outcomes would have a negative cost for the economy, although it warned a no-deal scenario would have the biggest downsides.

“No-deal Brexit would lead to high trade and non-trade barriers between the UK and the rest of the EU, with negative consequences for growth,” it said.

The IMF also warned the populist Italian government to tackle its high levels of government borrowing before time runs out.

Read more: British economic growth tipped to be slowest in Europe next year | Business | The Guardian

German Economy: German economy slowing down

German economy loses steam

Read the complete report at:

http://p.dw.com/p/2xj7n

U.S. economy seen growing 0.4 percent in first quarter - the Atlanta Fed said on its website - by by Richard Leong

The U.S. economy is growing at a 0.4 percent pace in the first quarter following the latest data on home resales and durable goods orders, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow forecast model showed on Tuesday.

This mwas a touch faster the 0.3 percent annualized pace for U.S. gross domestic product seen for the first three months in its prior estimate on April 19, the Atlanta Fed said on its website. 

Read more: U.S. economy seen growing 0.4 percent in first quarter: Atlanta Fed | Reuters

Europe’s Economy Strains as Global Slowdown Takes its Toll - by Jill Ward

The euro area is showing signs of strain from the global slowdown.

Weaker growth and deeper price cuts by companies, as captured in a monthly report by Market Economics published Monday, will raise concerns about the health of the economy. They may also increase pressure on European Central Bank policy makers to add to stimulus at their next meeting in March.

Markit said that its composite Purchasing Managers Index for the euro zone fell to 52.7, the lowest in more than a year, from 53.6. In Germany, manufacturing took a hit from falling overseas demand, while the composite gauge for France signaled “sluggish” economic growth.

“Not only did the survey indicate the weakest pace of economic growth for just over a year, but deflationary forces intensified,” said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit in London. The data “greatly increase the odds of more aggressive stimulus from the ECB.”

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development cut its forecasts for the euro region last week, and ECB officials are reviewing whether their current stimulus program is enough to counter global pressure. They’ve expressed concern that a renewed slump in oil prices is adding to risks that low inflation becomes entrenched.

Markit said euro-region economic growth this quarter may fall short of the 0.3 percent seen at the end of 2015.

“This month’s PMI indicates further deflationary pressures in the euro zone," said Bert Colijn, an economist at ING in Amsterdam. “As businesses continue to charge less for goods and services, it seems unlikely that inflation will pick up in the months ahead, which could be an additional trigger for the ECB to act in March.”

Markit’s German factory index fell to 50.2 this month, barely above the key 50 level that divides expansion from contraction.


Read more: Europe’s Economy Strains as Global Slowdown Takes its Toll - Bloomberg Business