NAFTA 2: Canada, Mexico, USA sign new deal

Battle' over as Trudeau, Trump, Pena Nieto sign 'new NAFTA'

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 https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/usmca-nieto-trudeau-trump-signing-1.4926961

Britain - Brexit: Extending article 50 would invalidate Brexit deal says May

Extending article 50 would invalidate Brexit deal, says May

Read full report at: 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/29/extending-article-50-would-invalidate-brexit-deal-says-may?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Blogg

Britain - Brexit is a bad idea whichever way you look at it, economically speaking

Under any scenario, the UK’s exit from the European Union will leave the country worse off. Free trade deal or not. Cuts to migration or not. Trade barriers or not. Every way you look at it, Brexit will make the the economy smaller compared with remaining in the bloc. That’s the assessment of both the UK Treasury and the Bank of England in separate assessments released today.

As British prime minister Theresa May tries to get the public and her parliamentary colleagues behind her plan for Brexit, these assessments show that there is a stark and unavoidable economic cost to the UK’s divorce from its biggest trading partner.

On Sunday (Nov. 25), the UK and EU signed off on a 900-plus page withdrawal agreement and a political declaration on future ties after Brexit. May said this deal “delivers on the vote” by ending the free movement of people between the UK and EU, slashing payments to Brussels, and mostly taking the UK out from under jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. These commitments also mean the UK will be out of the EU’s single market and customs union.

 The government is banking on the supposed political benefits of the deal outweighing the economic costs.

May’s deal is now being scrutinized before the British parliament votes on it on Dec. 11. Both the Treasury and Bank of England are keen to stress their reports are not economic forecasts, but possible scenarios based on changes to trade and migration, all else being equal, after Brexit becomes official in March next year. The results aren’t pretty.

Read more: Brexit is a bad idea whichever way you look at it, economically speaking — Quartz

EU Health Report: EU residents living longer but pay-gap and mental health still cause for concern

EU Health report: we’re living longer but the pay-gap and mental health still cause for concern

Read more at: 

https://www.euronews.com/2018/11/27/eu-health-report-we-re-living-longer-but-the-pay-gap-and-mental-health-still-cause-for-con

World War III ? Russia vs Ukraine War? Ukrainian President Says Neighbor Is Preparing Ground Attack - by Cristina Maza

During a televised speech on Monday in which he outlined his case for imposing martial law, Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko claimed that his country’s intelligence service had evidence that Russia was preparing a ground attack.

Poroshenko's speech was given after Russia blocked three Ukrainian navy vessels from passing from the Black Sea into the Sea of Azov via the Kerch Strait on Sunday. The incident was a major escalation of the tensions that have existed between the two countries ever since Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine and began backing armed separatists in the country in 2014. Poroshenko is close to imposing martial law in Ukraine, which would allow the military to run the country, saying it was necessary for Ukraine’s security.

Many experts said Russia’s attack on Ukrainian naval ships on Sunday was a game changer.

“The big story here is that Russia’s armed forces, in broad daylight, launched an attack on Ukrainian navy ships. This crosses a new line. Moscow, of course, seized Crimea with its military, but under the guise of unidentified ‘little green men.’

 Moscow has been conducting a not-quite-covert war in Donbass. Yes, there are thousands of Russian officers there and they control the fighting, but Moscow denies it. In this case, there is no denial,” John Herbst, U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 2003 to 2006, told Newsweek.

Note EU-Digest :  For those of us remembering our history classes, this is starting to resemble very much how the second world war started, when on October 1, 1938, Adolf Hitler's army marched into the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia.

This accelerating Nazi Germany's aggressive World War II offensive. 

At that time Europe also was divided, as it is now over Brexit, and to make natters even worse, the US, which used to be the West's major defender of Democracy, has now taken an isolationism turn under the leadership of a not too bright, ego-maniac President, who is in charge of a dysfunctional government, and a population, divided in two polarized camps. 

Putin looking at this picture is probably thinking in the same way as Hitler thought back in 1939. "this is a window of opportunity and it appears there is no need to pull down the shades." Bottom-line, we in the West, and specially the EU,  could become involved in a major war pretty soon, if we don't get our act together.

Read more: Russia vs. Ukraine War? Ukrainian President Says Neighbor Is Preparing Ground Attack

Brexit: UK, EU leaders finalise divorce at Brexit summit in Brussels

European Union leaders on Sunday approved a historic Brexit deal, handing the baton to British Prime Minister Theresa May who must now convince her sceptical party and country to support it.

Read more: UK, EU leaders finalise divorce at Brexit summit in Brussels - France 24

Britain - Brexit: No new better deal if Britain rejects draft agreement

Brexit: May says EU will not offer 'better deal' if agreement rejected -

Read more at:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46312909

EU The Academic view: A vision for Europe is desperately needed – by Maria Graczyk

 Liberals are better at pointing out others’ faults than at doing self-reflection. They spend more time explaining away the popularity of populism than explaining the fall of liberalism, says Jan Zielonka, adding that the EU has become a caricature of a neo-liberal project and needs a new vision.

For now, we are treading water. We are faking reforms, re-heating old ideas we did not accomplish at a time when there was a better economic situation. Real changes will therefore probably have to be forced by external shocks and therefore will be chaotic and painful.

Nevertheless, nothing happens, politicians dig into the wells. And they return to their discredited policy in previous years. Example? Refugees.For many years we have dealt with warlords and we know how it ended. Today, we are returning to the same model. We have become hostages of Erdogan’s policy with his refugee camps.First of all, I would not like to be hostage to his policy, and secondly – it is a denial of all the values on which liberal Europe was built.

It takes two to tango. Not only is Erdogan responsible for what is happening in Brussels-Ankara relations. When he came to power, he was very pro-European. Nevertheless, none of his efforts to get closer to Europe were successful. He was always told “tomorrow, tomorrow, tomorrow.” In this way, we have deprived ourselves of credibility and instruments of influence on Turkey.

Most EU countries were reluctant towards this enlargement. Just as the Turks were stuck in the EU’s waiting room for years.

Turkey must either be accepted or it needs to be said openly that “we do not accept, but we want to expand our relations in specific areas”. Instead, Turkey has been a candidate for years while we have set its terms.

 It was unbelievable. We left our cosmopolitan, pro-European friends in Turkey on the ice. It was similar with Ukraine. I’m not saying that all these problems were solvable, but I know that if we had followed what we declared, it would have not been as bad as it is. We did everything to destroy these good relations.

Read more: Academic: A vision for Europe is desperately needed – EURACTIV.com

US-Saudi Arabia relations: Saudi Arabia First says Trump

US politicians accuse Trump of putting 'Saudi Arabia first"

 

Read more at: 

http://aje.io/xsvzf

USA: Trump becomes an accomplish in Khashoggi murder by saying "no new Saudi punishment for Khashoggi murder to guarantee weapons sales"

President Donald Trump said Tuesday the U.S. will not punish Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at this time nor cut arms sales to Saudi Arabia for the killing of U.S.-based columnist Jamal Khashoggi.

Trump called the killing of Khashoggi inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul a "horrible crime" that the U.S. does not condone, but said Saudi Arabia is a "great ally" and canceling billions in arms sales would only benefit China and Russia, which would be glad to step in and make the sales.

Trump's decision, announced in a statement released just before he left for the long Thanksgiving weekend in Florida, will disappoint and anger critics who have called for a much firmer rebuke to the kingdom and especially bin Salman.

Note EU-Digest: This is unacceptable by any human rights respecting Government, specially that of the United states. Shame on you Donald Trump. 

Read more: Trump says no new Saudi punishment for Khashoggi murder

Global Automobile Industry: Carlos Gosn chairman - Nisan, Renault, Mitsubishi arrested on fraud charges

Nissan boss Carlos Ghosn arrested over 'misconduct' -

Read more:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46259420

Middle East: Saudi Arabia and U.S. on collision course as Mohammed bin Salman's standing ebbs

Trump has pledged that he won’t whitewash the murder and that the United States will do what’s necessary regarding whoever was involved, though he hasn’t mentioned Prince Mohammed’s name. The time to cash the check has come earlier than Trump expected. 

Saudi Arabia tried last week to lighten the load for the president by announcing the arrests of 21 suspects and the indictment of 15, while the attorney general said he would demand the death penalty for five, though he didn’t provide any names. 

Earlier King Salman fired Ahmed al-Asiri, the deputy intelligence chief, and Saud al-Qahtani, Mohammed’s senior adviser. In so doing the king set a ceiling on how high the punishment could go. But now it seems there will be no choice but to examine his own son’s future. 

According to The Washington Post, Prince Mohammed’s brother Khalid, the Saudi ambassador to Washington, was the one who phoned Khashoggi and encouraged him to go to the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul. The prince’s adviser and aide, intelligence man Maher Abdulaziz Mutrib, allegedly led the ring and after the murder phoned Qahtani and asked him to tell the boss that it was mission accomplished. 

Mutrib didn’t explicitly say the boss’ name but Qahtani has only one boss and that’s Prince Mohammed. The Saudi ambassador has strongly denied having any telephone conversation with Khashoggi, and a Post reporter has written that their last meeting came in 2017; afterward they corresponded several times. The top Saudi prosecutor said Thursday that Khashoggi was murdered by a “lethal injection” and that his body was dismembered, with his organs handed to someone outside the consulate for disposal.

Read moire: Saudi Arabia and U.S. on collision course as Mohammed bin Salman's standing ebbs - Middle East News - Haaretz.com

"The Anglophile Drama": How the U.S. and U.K. are partners in chaos - by Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver

This happened when populists like 
Farage and Trump called for Brexit

A little thought bubble as we head into the weekend and the short Thanksgiving week. Morning -Money" spent some time over the last several days in Washington and New York with a variety of executives who are sifting through the 2018 midterm election results and trying to make some sense of the path of U.S. politics.

Many are trying to figure out where America is headed with a growing schism between a metro-area dominated, more highly educated electorate trending toward the Democrats and smaller town and rural voters sticking with President Donald Trump and the GOP and embracing the president’s hardline trade and immigration policies and his culture war appeals.

Consensus among these executives (and frankly among anyone else) is that American politics is a directionless wreck with no path forward on anything from health care to education to retirement savings to climate change and gun violence and long-term fiscal deficits. One British banker mused about how he’s never seen the U.S. so screwed up or derelict on the world stage.

Then he stopped himself almost immediately to say how the U.K. really wasn’t any better with no consensus on how to deal with Brexit, a potential end to Prime Minister Theresa May’s tenure, a civil war inside the Conservative party and a plunging pound. It remains largely unclear in the U.K. whether May’s softer Brexit plan will somehow survive or no deal will emerge leading to a hard Brexit or a new referendum will take place to reverse Brexit entirely.

Tensions in the U.S. and U.K. are different in many ways but they share commonalities of fractured politics and deep divisions on fundamental identities as either insular and nationalistic or more globally integrated and diverse. We got no revelatory insight in these conversations beyond a morbid sense that only grave and immediate crisis that cannot be ignored will jolt either nation into clarity. And maybe not even then.

Happy thoughts for your Friday!

Read more: How the U.S. and U.K. are partners in chaos - POLITICO

US-Saudi Relations: U.S. sanctions 17 for role in hideous murder of Saudi journalist Khashoggi - a US smokescreen to protect business interests with Saudis?

Khashoggi murder:  Business as usual between US and Saudi Arabia

The U.S. Treasury will announce today 11/15/2018 sanctions on 17 Saudis for their role in the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, according to a source familiar with the administration's plans.

Those to be sanctioned include Saud al-Qahtani, a former top aide to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as well as the Saudi Consul General Mohammed Alotaibi, the source said.

The sanctions will be implemented under the Global Magnitsky Act, which imposes sanctions over human rights abuses, the source said.

Among others facing sanctions are Maher Mutreb, an aide to Qahtani who has appeared in photographs with Prince Mohammed on official visits this year to the United States and Europe.

Note EU-Digest: The US sanctions announced by the Trump Administration are an indication the US Administration "has accepted the confusing explanations and statements" about the hideous murder of Saudi journalist Khashoggi by the Saudi Government in the Saudi Istanbul consulate", and as such concludes, "case closed and business as usual",  between the US and Saudi Arabia . 

U.S. sanctions 17 for role in killing of Saudi journalist Khashog

The Netherlands: Dutch hit back at "over - tourism"

Not Disneyland': Dutch hit back at 'over-tourism' -

Read more at;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46194330

Britain and E.U. Agree on a Plan for Brexit - by Stephen Castle

British and European Union officials reached a long-awaited draft agreement on Tuesday on Britain’s troubled withdrawal from the bloc, opening the way for a high-stakes meeting of Prime Minister Theresa May’s most senior ministers to consider the plans, the prime minister’s office said.

Cabinet ministers will have a chance to review the draft text before a critical meeting of the full cabinet at 2 p.m. Wednesday, the prime minister’s office said.

After months of deadlock over the terms of Britain’s exit from the bloc, the presentation of the draft agreement is a moment of truth for Mrs. May, who is desperate to avoid a chaotic and disorderly “no-deal” Brexit. But she cannot be assured of support from hard-line Brexiteers in her cabinet, whom she may need to face down.

n the worst case, defections from the cabinet or an outright rejection of the pact could threaten her leadership.
 

Read more at: Britain and E.U. Agree on a Plan for Brexit - NY Times

US Economy: Dow plunges by more than 600 points in massive market sell-off - by Lucy Bayly

The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by more than 600 points Monday, dragged down by a tumble in Apple and Amazon shares, mounting geopolitical concerns, and a strengthening dollar.

The S&P also stumbled, falling by 2 percent after shares in Goldman Sachs sank by more than 7 percent amid reports that Malaysia is seeking a multimillion-dollar refund from the investment firm for its role in the country’s 1MDB state fund money-laundering scandal.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index was down 2.8 percent.

Apple had pulled down tech stocks early Monday after Lumentum, a key supplier to the Cupertino-based giant, said it was cutting its outlook for the second quarter of 2019 based on lower forecast production volume for one of its major clients.

Tobacco stocks also had a bad day, tumbling double digits on news that the Food and Drug Administration is mulling a ban on menthol cigarettes.
. 

Read More: Dow plunges by more than 600 points in massive market sell-off

France: World War I commemoration: Macron rebukes nationalism at commemoration = by David Jackson

Bells tolled across France and Europe on Sunday as President Donald Trump and other global leaders gathered to honor the dead of World War I and heed its harsh lessons to prevent conflicts.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who has criticized Trump's "America First" foreign policy, decried excessive "nationalism" at the root of World War I and successiven
conflicts.

"Nationalism is a betrayal of patriotism," Macron told a gathering of world leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Trump.

 “Nationalism is a betrayal of patriotism by saying, ‘Our interest first, who cares about the others?=

Hosting an event to mark the centennial of the armistice that ended World War I, Macron told fellow leaders they have a "huge responsibility" to defeat modern forces that threaten a "legacy of peace" from the two world wars of the past century. know there are old demons coming back to the surface," the French president said. "They are ready to wreak chaos and death."

Macron did not refer specifically to Trump, who occasionally frowned during the speech.

Trump did not respond to Macron publicly. During a speech later Sunday at a World War I-era cemetery,

Trump praised the French leader for hosting the event he called;"very beautiful" and "well done."

In defending "America First," Trump has often said the United States needs to address its own needs. air."

Read more: France -World War I commemoration: Macron rebukes nationalism at commemoration

EU Economy: British economic growth tipped to be slowest in Europe next year, but rest of European Economies also slowing down - by Richard Partington

The euro area of 19 countries including Germany, France and Italy is forecast to slow from a growth rate of 2.1% this year to 1.9% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020, as the wider region enters a period of weaker growth following the strongest year of the past decade in 2017.

It comes as the wider global economy is unsettled by Donald Trump’s trade disputes with China and Europe, which have reduced demand for manufactured goods and stifled business investment.

Despite the weaker outlook for the British economy, growth figures have shown Britain managing a better performance than the eurozone over recent quarters.

Statistics due on Friday are expected to show UK economic growth of 0.6% for the third quarter. Economists at HSBC believe Germany is likely to record its first drop in quarterly economic output, of 0.1%, for more than three years.

In the IMF’s latest health check on the region, it warned the European economy would probably run into turbulence in the next few years.

The Washington-based fund said all likely Brexit outcomes would have a negative cost for the economy, although it warned a no-deal scenario would have the biggest downsides.

“No-deal Brexit would lead to high trade and non-trade barriers between the UK and the rest of the EU, with negative consequences for growth,” it said.

The IMF also warned the populist Italian government to tackle its high levels of government borrowing before time runs out.

Read more: British economic growth tipped to be slowest in Europe next year | Business | The Guardian

Britain - Brexit: Britsh transport minister Jo Jonson quits May Cabinet over Brexit plan

UK minister Jo Johnson quits over 'terrible' Brexit plan

Read more at:
https://p.dw.com/p/37yXo

US Mid -Term Elections: With Democrats taking control of the Congress, checks and balances have been restored to the US Political system, in what was a Trump Administration one party rule of America

Democrats took control of the House Tuesday night, a victory that will transform a Republican-controlled chamber that supported and protected President Trump into a legislative body ready to challenge and investigate him.

 GOP-held suburban seats around the country gave Democrats more than the 23 seats they needed to retake the majority, giving them control of Congress after being locked out of power since Trump took office last year.The Repunlicans still control the Senate

 The Democrats aim to quickly usher in a new era and tone in Washington, starting with a legislative package of anti-corruption measures aimed at strengthening ethics laws, protecting voter rights and cracking down on campaign finance abuses.

 With Democrats taking control of the Congress, checks and balances have been restored to the US Political system, in what was a Trump Administration one party rule of America.

EU-Digest

US ECONOMY: COULD RECORD US DEFICIT TRIGGER THE NEXT RECESSION: ? "As U.S. trade gap widens to dangerous hights."

The U.S. trade deficit rose to a seven-month high in September as imports surged to a record high amid strong domestic demand, offsetting a rebound in exports.

The Commerce Department said on Friday the trade gap increased 1.3 percent to $54.0 billion, widening for a fourth straight month. Data for August was revised to show the trade deficit rising to $53.3 billion instead of the previously reported $53.2 billion.

Could the US Economy collapse?

But here's the bigger question that retail investors and Wall Street are currently asking: Is the current stock market correction over? Given the many headwinds facing stocks and the U.S. and/or global economy, the answer may not be what investors want to hear.

Here are 25 reasons and/or scenarios that could cause the stock market to head substantially lower than where it's currently valued.

1. The ongoing trade war with China escalates, raising material costs, curbing consumer spending, and hurting corporate profits.
2. Corporate share buybacks fail to boost per-share profits as much as expected.
3. Democrats win one or both houses of Congress, hurting the chance of Republicans to pass further fiscal stimulus legislation.
4. The federal budget deficit continues to soar, placing added emphasis on our growing national debt, currently at more than $21 trillion.
5. The U.S. dollar keeps strengthening, placing pressure on exports and worsening the U.S. trade deficit with foreign countries.
6. FANG stocks – that's Facebook, Amazon.com, Netflix, and Google (now Alphabet) -- continue to draw the ire of short-sellers.
7. The Federal Reserve gets overly aggressive with interest rate hikes, sapping lending demand.
8. The yield curve flattens, reducing the desire of banks to lend money.
9. Interest rates rise, providing incentive for investors to ditch volatile equities for the safety of bonds and bank CDs.
10. Britain falls into a "hard Brexit." With few or no trade deals in place, the U.K. falls into recession, taking the U.S. and other developed countries with it.
11. China's economy experiences its slowest growth in decades, placing pressure on its ability to import from the U.S. and other key players.
12. The U.S. housing market shows signs of weakening, with important markets like California seeing a steep drop-off in new home sales.
13. Credit-card delinquencies begin to trickle higher, demonstrating the inability of consumers to meet their payment obligations.
14. The subprime auto loan market bubble bursts.
15. The U.S. goes to war, regardless of the reason or the country in question.
16. An errant tweet from President Trump stirs Wall Street and investors.
17. A flash crash caused by computer algorithms results in substantially reduced liquidity and perpetuates a rapid move lower in the stock market.
18. Investor emotions (especially those of day traders) get out of hand and send traders running for the exit.
19. The unemployment rate, which is at a 49-year low, begins to rise, signaling peak employment and the possibility of a weakening economy.
20. Disruption in important oil-producing countries causes crude prices to skyrocket or plunge. Either way, it could create sticker shock or job losses and adversely impact the U.S. economy.
21. U.S. GDP data shows slowing growth, which, in turn, cools investor expectations for stocks, sending them lower.
22. Inflation comes in far lower than expected, signaling that businesses have little pricing power. The prospect of deflation could wreak havoc on corporate earnings, causing the market to fall.
23. The U.S. debt ceiling is hit (yet again), but the political divide in Congress becomes too great for lawmakers to overcome, allowing the shutdown to perpetuate for months.
24. European debt crisis 2.0 hits, with countries like Italy unable to dig their way out of years of loose borrowing.
25. A widely followed pundit, such as Warren Buffett, sounds the cry of the stock market being overvalued.

In other words, there is no shortage of reasons the stock market could tumble from its recent all-time highs.

Bottom-line, however -it does not look good for the US Economy as the deficit is coming close to a trillion US dollars.Impossible to pay it back, unless by slashing government spending, and increasing taxes.

Unlike the trillion dollar budget deficits that occurred during the Obama administration that were temporary and largely the result of the Great Recession, the Trump deficits that will soon reach and exceed $1 trillion are permanent and will only get worse in the years ahead.

The Trump deficits are the result of changes in federal spending and revenue that will continue to be in place until some president and Congress decide to reverse them, that is, to increase taxes and make cuts to popular programs.

EU-Digest

US Economy: Trump wants voters to think the US economy is booming – is it? - by Dominic Rushe

“We’re going to win so much, you’re going to be so sick and tired of winning,” Donald Trump promised on the campaign trail ahead of his election. And as the president faces his first midterm vote, the big test for Trump will be whether voters are sick of winning, or sick of him.

On many measures, the US economy has boomed under Trump. Unemployment is at lows unseen since the first moon landing, stock markets remain close to record highs, business confidence is up, trade agreements Trump has slammed as “unfair” are being rewritten. On Friday the government’s latest jobs report showed wages were rising at their highest rate since 2009.

If the Republicans come through in Tuesday’s vote and outperform expectations – despite Trump’s unpopularity – then no doubt a lot of pundits will be using the campaign quote coined by James Carville, strategist to Bill Clinton, to explain the outcome: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

Trump is pushing his hard line on immigration harder than his economic record. Polling shows economic issues become less of a factor when the economy is on a sound footing.

 Read more: Trump wants voters to think the US economy is booming – is

Defending the US border against a small group of Asylum seekers with 15.000 troops is total madness

Madness yes indeed : and it will cost over $200 million dollars.

Read More at:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trumps-border-deployments-could-cost-200-million-by-year-end/2018/11/02/9798d7b6-deeb-11e8-aa33-53bad9a881e8_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3d5cb7d9c4ed

Britain - Brexit: The Man Who Bankrolled Brexit, Arron Banks, Under Criminal Investigation - by Jamie.Ros

Arron Banks, the biggest individual donor in British political history and a major source of money behind the Brexit campaign, has been placed under criminal investigation for several suspected offences that took place during the referendum.

Britain's election watchdog says there are “reasonable grounds” to suspect that Banks committed several crimes in the run-up to the dramatic vote, and that they suspect he wasn't the true source of £8 million ($10 million) in loans made to Better For The Country—a company he used to finance the Leave.EU campaign group whose public face was Nigel Farage.

The investigation by the National Crime Agency, which has the expertise to trace illicit cross-border money trails, will seek to find the true source of the money that funded Brexit.

Banks—one of the self-christened “bad boys of Brexit” who met Donald Trump in late 2016 with Farage—has long been a controversial figure with business links to Russia. He is known to have been offered three Russian business deals during the Brexit campaign, including one which gave him the chance to make huge profits from a Russian gold company.

Read more: The Man Who Bankrolled Brexit, Arron Banks, Under Criminal Investigation