Under any scenario, the UK’s exit from the
European Union will leave the country worse off. Free trade deal or not.
Cuts to migration or not. Trade barriers or not. Every way you look at
it, Brexit will make the the economy smaller compared with remaining in
the bloc. That’s the assessment of both the UK Treasury and the Bank of
England in separate assessments released today.
As
British prime minister Theresa May tries to get the public and her
parliamentary colleagues behind her plan for Brexit, these assessments
show that there is a stark and unavoidable economic cost to the UK’s
divorce from its biggest trading partner.
On
Sunday (Nov. 25), the UK and EU signed off on a 900-plus page
withdrawal agreement and a political declaration on future ties after
Brexit. May said this deal “delivers on the vote”
by ending the free movement of people between the UK and EU, slashing
payments to Brussels, and mostly taking the UK out from under
jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. These commitments also
mean the UK will be out of the EU’s single market and customs union.
The
government is banking on the supposed political benefits of the deal
outweighing the economic costs.
May’s deal
is now being scrutinized before the British parliament votes on it on
Dec. 11. Both the Treasury and Bank of England are keen to stress their
reports are not economic forecasts, but possible scenarios based on
changes to trade and migration, all else being equal, after Brexit
becomes official in March next year. The results aren’t pretty.
Read more: Brexit is a bad idea whichever way you look at it, economically speaking — Quartz
