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Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Britain - Brexit is a bad idea whichever way you look at it, economically speaking

Under any scenario, the UK’s exit from the European Union will leave the country worse off. Free trade deal or not. Cuts to migration or not. Trade barriers or not. Every way you look at it, Brexit will make the the economy smaller compared with remaining in the bloc. That’s the assessment of both the UK Treasury and the Bank of England in separate assessments released today.

As British prime minister Theresa May tries to get the public and her parliamentary colleagues behind her plan for Brexit, these assessments show that there is a stark and unavoidable economic cost to the UK’s divorce from its biggest trading partner.

On Sunday (Nov. 25), the UK and EU signed off on a 900-plus page withdrawal agreement and a political declaration on future ties after Brexit. May said this deal “delivers on the vote” by ending the free movement of people between the UK and EU, slashing payments to Brussels, and mostly taking the UK out from under jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. These commitments also mean the UK will be out of the EU’s single market and customs union.

 The government is banking on the supposed political benefits of the deal outweighing the economic costs.

May’s deal is now being scrutinized before the British parliament votes on it on Dec. 11. Both the Treasury and Bank of England are keen to stress their reports are not economic forecasts, but possible scenarios based on changes to trade and migration, all else being equal, after Brexit becomes official in March next year. The results aren’t pretty.

Read more: Brexit is a bad idea whichever way you look at it, economically speaking — Quartz