After all the talk about a “foreign policy election” in 2016, what about the economy? The Federal Reserve might have finally raised interest rates thanks to lower unemployment, but there’s no doubt much of the American public—including not a few supporters of a man called Trump—still feels the effects of the recession.
Not to mention global economic risks, ranging from China’s slowing growth to terrorism threats in the Middle East and beyond. Could the economy really tank in 2016?
We asked the country’s leading economic thinkers to peer into the (near) future and tell us what to expect in U.S. and global markets this year. What are the biggest opportunities for growth—and the biggest risks? What, if any, is the chance of another recession? And what should the 2016 presidential candidates do about it all? Here’s what the experts had to say.
The greatest challenge facing the U.S. is the pace of trend economic growth. During the postwar era, growth in per capita income permitted the standard of living to double in just more than 30 years—one person’s working career. Under the burden of a regulatory explosion, ballooning federal debt, poor business investment in the recovery, higher taxes and other sources of slower productivity growth, doubling the standard of living is now projected to take roughly 70 years.
The biggest threat in 2016 is not a recession—which can’t be ruled out, but is not likely; it is further damage to the American dream. The president will continue “executive action”; we just can’t be sure how much burdensome red tape will result. And there is the real damage that short-termism will rear its ugly head among the 2016 presidential candidates and produce promises of more spending (the Clinton campaign is already over $1 trillion), new entitlements and expensive mandates. That’s not the path to fixing the U.S. growth problem.
‘There’s a real possibility that 2016 will be difficult for most major economies outside the United States.’
So, best upside risk: greater consumer spending, kicked off by lower gas prices.
Biggest downside risk: even slower growth in the rest of the world. China could actually experience recession. Or one or two additional terrorism incidents in Europe or the United States could depress international travel and create widespread caution about the political and economic future, thus lowering spending and limiting global investment.
Read more: Could the American economy tank in 2016? – POLITICO
Not to mention global economic risks, ranging from China’s slowing growth to terrorism threats in the Middle East and beyond. Could the economy really tank in 2016?
We asked the country’s leading economic thinkers to peer into the (near) future and tell us what to expect in U.S. and global markets this year. What are the biggest opportunities for growth—and the biggest risks? What, if any, is the chance of another recession? And what should the 2016 presidential candidates do about it all? Here’s what the experts had to say.
The greatest challenge facing the U.S. is the pace of trend economic growth. During the postwar era, growth in per capita income permitted the standard of living to double in just more than 30 years—one person’s working career. Under the burden of a regulatory explosion, ballooning federal debt, poor business investment in the recovery, higher taxes and other sources of slower productivity growth, doubling the standard of living is now projected to take roughly 70 years.
The biggest threat in 2016 is not a recession—which can’t be ruled out, but is not likely; it is further damage to the American dream. The president will continue “executive action”; we just can’t be sure how much burdensome red tape will result. And there is the real damage that short-termism will rear its ugly head among the 2016 presidential candidates and produce promises of more spending (the Clinton campaign is already over $1 trillion), new entitlements and expensive mandates. That’s not the path to fixing the U.S. growth problem.
‘There’s a real possibility that 2016 will be difficult for most major economies outside the United States.’
So, best upside risk: greater consumer spending, kicked off by lower gas prices.
Biggest downside risk: even slower growth in the rest of the world. China could actually experience recession. Or one or two additional terrorism incidents in Europe or the United States could depress international travel and create widespread caution about the political and economic future, thus lowering spending and limiting global investment.
Read more: Could the American economy tank in 2016? – POLITICO
