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Monday, January 25, 2016

Global Economic Change: Truly a New Economic Order - by Uwe Bott,

During the past few weeks, global financial markets have reacted with great volatility. The two key drivers are increasingly bad economic  news coming out of China as well as the anticipated increase in U.S. interest rates, the first such rise since 2006.

To cut right to the chase: The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States should not raise intere rates!

Central bankers who favor an increase in U.S. interest rates overlook that they no longer live in their parents’ world economy. As a matter of fact, too many policy makers and central bankers across the globe
still live in the 20th century.

They have not yet realized that we live in a radically altered world economy that will shape the 21st century for some time to come. That tardy realization is not just unfortunate. It is a bad omen.

The acumen of central bankers has to be put into serious question. They celebrated themselves for accomplishing the “great moderation” in inflationary expectations over the past decades or so, even though that outcome had next to nothing to do with central banks’ management ofmonetary policy.

Still, there are many observers who argue that an increase is long  overdue. After all, rates have been near zero since the financial crisis of 2008 and surely the U.S. economy is doing better, even if there is still a lot of room for improvement. Isn’t interest rate policy suppose to be anticipatory in nature?

That statement is both right and wrong at the same time. Yes,interest rate policy is to be anticipatory — and not reactive. But that alone would ignore the fundamental structural changes in the world economy.

During the past few weeks, global financial markets have reacted wigreat volatility. The two key drivers are increasingly bad economic news coming out of China as well as the anticipated increase in U.S.interest rates, the first such rise since 2006.

To cut right to the chase: The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States should not raise interest rates!

Central bankers who favor an increase in U.S. interest rates overlook  that they no longer live in their  parents’ world economy. As a matter of fact, too many policy makers and central bankers across the globe
still live in the 20th century.

They have not yet realized that we live in a radically altered worldeconomy that will shape the 21st century for some time to come. That tardy realization is not just unfortunate. It is a bad omen.

The acumen of central bankers has to be put into serious question. They celebrated themselves for accomplishing the “great moderation” in\inflationary expectations over the past decades or so, even though that outcome had next to nothing to do with central banks’ management of monetary policy.

Still, there are many observers who argue that an increase is longoverdue. After all, rates have been near zero since the financial crisis of 2008 and surely the U.S. economy is doing better, even if there is still a lot of room for improvement. Isn’t interest rate policy supposed to be anticipatory in nature?

That statement is both right and wrong at the same time. Yes,interest rate policy is to be anticipatory — and not reactive. But that alone would ignore the fundamental structural changes in the world economy.

Read more: Truly a New Economic Order - The Globalist