Britain - Brexit: Theresa May should start reading the Tea Leaves as 2.6 million Leave voters have abandoned support for Brexit since referendum, major new study finds - by Benjamin Kentish

The Brexit disaster

More than 2.6 million people have abandoned their support for Brexit and now back staying in the EU, a major study has concluded.

If the huge number of Britons who have changed their mind had voted to stay in the EU in 2016, the referendum would have delivered a clear Remain verdict.

The data will add to the debate about whether the country now needs a new referendum, with millions having second thoughts about their Leave vote amid growing fears about Britain crashing out of the EU without a deal.

In a key finding that will particularly intensify pressure on Jeremy Corbyn to take a tougher stance against Brexit, the study found the overwhelming majority of those changing minds are Labour voters in seats the party currently holds.

It comes as Conservative divisions over Brexit deepened, with Theresa May attempting to slap down Boris Johnson after he wrote another article attacking her approach.

The Independent has launched its own campaign for a Final Say referendum, with almost three quarters of a million people having signed our petition demanding one so far.

Read more: 2.6 million Leave voters have abandoned support for Brexit since referendum, major new study finds | The Independent

France: French Election Polls Ahead of First Debate Show Le Pen, Macron Extending Lead- by Jason Le Miere

Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron have pulled further in front in opinion polls for next month’s French presidential election ahead of the first televised debate Monday. Macron, a centrist independent, and Le Pen, the far-right leader of the National Front, have extended their advantage over Republican François Fillon, whose campaign has been dogged by an investigation into alleged fraud.

Macron and Le Pen were tied with 26 percent of the vote, with Fillon falling back to 17 percent, in a poll conducted by Kantar Sofres released Sunday. There was a setback, too, for the candidate for the governing Socialist party, Benoît Hamon, who fell back to 12 percent, level with left-wing former Socialist party member Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Current President François  Hollande announced in December that he will not seek a second term.

French voters will go to the polls for the first round of the election on April 23, with the top two candidates then going onto a second round run-off on May 7.

It would take a major swing in the final month of the campaign for the run-off not to be between Macron and Le Pen. And it would take a similar momentum switch for Macron not to ultimately emerge victorious. Polls have consistently shown Macron beating Le Pen in the second round with around two-thirds of the vote.

Read More: France: French Election Polls Ahead of First Debate Show Le Pen, Macron Extending Lead- by  Jason Le Miere

The Netherlands: Dutch far-right leader Wilders cancels public events over alleged security leak but police say Wilders' safety "never in question".

Fake News Leadership

Anti-Islam Dutch MP Geert Wilders and his far-right Freedom Party suspended all public activities Thursday after a police agent was arrested for allegedly leaking information about him to a Moroccan gang.

 "Very disturbing news. The Freedom Party is suspending all public activities until all facts in connection with the investigation are known," Wilders said on Twitter, as Dutch political parties gear up for a crunch election on March 15.

The firebrand MP, who has courted controversy with his hardline anti-Islam, anti-immigrant stance and his incendiary insults against Moroccans and Turks, has long been under 24-hour police protection.

Tensions are escalating ahead of the election in which the Freedom Party is running neck-and-neck with the Liberals of Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

On Saturday, Wilders upped the tone at the launch of his official campaign, denouncing "a lot of Moroccan scum who make the streets unsafe".

The highly-respected NRC daily newspaper reported Wednesday that the agent was arrested for allegedly passing on information about Wilders to a Moroccan crime gang.

Dutch police chief Erik Akkerboom confirmed an investigation had been opened but that Wilders' safety "was never in question".

However the matter was deemed so serious that Rutte, who is now campaigning for his own Liberal VVD party, met Wilders to discuss the issue.

The suspected agent was released on Thursday pending the investigation, Dutch news agency ANP said.

Netherlands is no stranger to political violence, even though the small country of just 17 million people has largely gained a reputation for tolerance.

Flamboyant far-right leader Pim Fortuyn was assassinated just nine days before Dutch elections in 2002, shocking the country to the core.

Just two years later in November 2004, filmmaker Theo van Gogh was murdered by a Muslim radical.

Wilders, 53, has vowed in his party's one-page manifesto that if elected he would ban the sale of Korans, close mosques and Islamic schools, shut Dutch borders and ban Muslim migrants.

Note EU-Digest: Obviously one must question  the true value of this story about Wilders - that it is not another populist stunt by him and his followers to give his sinking popularity in the polls a boost. Also to be noted is that Mr.Wilders is never able to provide any detailed plans about how he wants to carry out his party's "one page" manifesto.  

Read more: Dutch far-right leader Wilders cancels public events over security leak - France 24

US Presidential Race: Clinton now Leads Trump By only 5 Points In Latest Poll

U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton leads her Republican rival Donald Trump by 5 percentage points among likely voters, down from a peak this month of 12 points, according to the Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll released on Friday.

The Aug. 22-25 opinion poll found that 41 percent of likely voters supported Clinton ahead of the Nov. 8 presidential election, while 36 percent supported Trump. Some 23 percent would not pick either candidate and answered “refused,” “other” or “wouldn’t vote.”

Clinton, a former secretary of state, has led real estate developer Trump in the poll since Democrats and Republicans ended their national conventions and formally nominated their presidential candidates in July. Her level of support has varied between 41 and 45 percent during that period, and her lead over Trump in the tracking poll peaked this month at 12 percentage points on Tuesday.

During the past week, Clinton has been dogged by accusations by Trump, which she has denied, that donations to her family’s charitable foundation influenced her actions while she was secretary of state from 2009 to 2013. Questions have also surfaced again about her use of a private email server and address rather than a government one during her period at the State Department.

Meanwhile, Trump and Clinton also sparred over who would be a better advocate for African Americans and other minorities, and Trump hinted he could soften his hard-line stance on immigration. [nL1N1B714Z]

In a separate Reuters/Ipsos poll that includes candidates from small, alternative parties, Clinton leads the field by a smaller margin. Some 39 percent of likely voters supported Clinton in the four-way poll, compared with 36 percent for Trump, 7 percent for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and 3 percent for Green Party nominee Jill Stein.

Read more: Clinton Leads Trump By 5 Points In Latest Poll

Europe's Majority Backs Hillary A new Hillary demographic: Europe’s center right – by Ryan Heath

The prospect of a Donald Trump presidency and the new look of the Republican party he now leads is causing some center-right European parties to rethink their political allegiances.

The shift was evident in the stark contrast in attendance by European politicians at the Democratic convention here in Philadelphia and those who went to the Republican gathering last week:

In Cleveland only former UKIP leader Nigel Farage, Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders and a few members of the European Conservatives and Reformists group could be found. In Philadelphia, there were representatives from a range of political groups, including center-right politicians who typically would have been more at home at a Republican convention.

An opinion sampling of those politicians — from parties normally at each other throats in Brussels, from the Greens to the center-right Christian Democrats — found overwhelming support for Hillary Clinton to be the next president of the United States.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters Thursday in Berlin it was a “clear ‘no'” when asked if the prospect of a Trump presidency is giving her nightmares, but the feeling isn’t shared by ministers and MPs here in Philadelphia.

“Historically I have definitely more of a Republican, at least on the economic side, but there’s no way I could convince myself to support someone like Donald Trump,” said Belgian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander de Croo.

Read full report: A new Hillary demographic: Europe’s center right – POLITICO