Turkey - unemployment climbing rapidly in Turkey during Erdogan's AKP Regime

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-15/turkey-bleeds-jobs-as-unemployment-climbs-to-highest-in-a-decade

Turkey: Will Turkey′s economic woes reach Europe? - probably not say the experts

With diplomatic tensions high, the Turkish lira has hit yet another all-time low against the US dollar, which not only impacts the Mediterranean country. But will its spillover into the eurozone bring a bang?

Turkey's embattled lira on Friday hit new record lows against the US dollar, losing some five percent in value as fears grew over the exposure of European banks and tensions with the United States showed no sign of easing as Washington piled more pressure on Ankara through sanctions after a meeting between a Turkish delegation and US officials in Washington yielded no apparent solution to a diplomatic rift over the detention in Turkey of an evangelical American pastor.

The lira went into free-fall, sinking more than 12 percent at one point to reach and all-time low, having now lost more than one third of its value this year against the US dollar and the euro.

More broadly, concerns over the sickly Turkish economy's wider impact were intensified Friday by a report in the Financial Times that the supervisory wing of the European Central Bank had began to look more closely at eurozone lenders' exposure to the country.

Deepening investor concerns about Turkey's authoritarian trajectory under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the economic fallout have also weighed on the currency. Markets are deeply concerned over the direction of economic policy in Turkey where inflation has hit nearly 16 percent while the central bank remains reluctant to raise rates in response.

Speaking to supporters in the Black Sea province of Rize late on Thursday, Erdogan dismissed concerns over the currency as a campaign against his country. "There are various campaigns being carried out. Don't heed them," Erdogan said.

"Don't forget, if they have their dollars, we have our people, our God. We are working hard. Look at what we were 16 years ago and look at us now," he said. On Friday, Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak — at the same time Erdogan's son-in-law — is set to unveil the government's latest plan for country's economy.

Turkish economist Korkut Boratav sees the need for urgent action: "The economy is fragile. Due to the foreign debts of companies and banks and the current account deficit, there is a great need for foreign capital."

A new analysis by Berenberg Bank sees little long-term impact of high Turkish inflation and low interest rates on eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) growth. "Even if eurozone goods exports to Turkey were to fall by, say, 20 percent, this would subtract no more than 0.1 percentage point from growth in the big eurozone," according to the report.

Even Turkey's annual GDP which is around €750 billion ($860 billion) is only equivalent to 6.5 percent of the eurozone's GDP. Though this is four times larger than Greece, it is still "less than half the size of the Italian economy, despite Turkey's larger population of around 80 million versus around 60 million for Italy," according to the analysis. 

And even if eurozone exports to Turkey fell through the floor, previous experience has shown that European companies are "pretty quick in identifying and switching to new markets. Selling more elsewhere would offset some of the hypothetical decline in eurozone exports to Turkey." Once any crisis was over, the bank expects exports to recover quickly.

Obviously a real Turkish crisis would have knock-on effects, though Berenberg sees Europe's exposure to Turkish banks as being too small to cause much harm. Even in the worst case scenario, "bank supervisors in the eurozone would have sufficient tools at their disposal to contain the damage," making a credit crunch in any part of the eurozone highly unlikely, concludes the upbeat analysis.

Korkut Boratav is more concerned and thinks an intervention by the IMF is the only way to save the European banks. "The Europeans should have known that they should not lend to distressed banks," criticizes Boratav. "This is one of the most important principles of the free market economy — if you lend money, you take a risk and must accept the losses."

Read more: Will Turkey′s economic woes reach Europe? | Business| Economy and finance news from a German perspective | DW | 10.08.2018

Turkey: The Man: Muharrem Ince - Who Could Topple Erdogan - by Safak Pavey

Turkish Presidential Candidate 
Muharrem Ince, rattling Erdogan's base

The New York Times reports that something is changing in Turkey.

After 16 years of electoral dominance by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the secularist opposition Republican People’s Party, known as the C.H.P., has found a leader and presidential candidate who is rattling Mr. Erdogan, invigorating opposition voters and reaching out to Turks beyond the traditional base of his party.

The murmurs are increasingly audible that Mr. Erdogan may not be invincible when Turkey votes on June 24. The politician who achieved this transformation in the national mood is Muharrem Ince, a 54-year-old legislator from the C.H.P., who was chosen as the presidential candidate by his party in May. Mr. Ince has represented Yalova, a province about 50 miles from Istanbul, in the Turkish parliament since 2002. His father was a small farmer. Mr. Ince taught physics at a school before entering politics.

I got to know Mr. Ince while serving as a member of parliament for the C.H.P. from Istanbul. His speeches in the parliament went viral on Turkish social media; his humor inspired caricatures and memes, skewering the opponents. In the past month of campaigning, Mr. Ince’s witty and pugnacious speeches challenging Mr. Erdogan at public meetings have inspired the Turks.

I recently attended a public meeting Mr. Ince was having in Duzce, a city on the Black Sea coast, which has elected Justice and Development Party candidates in every parliamentary election since Mr. Erdogan founded the party in 2002. Politicians from the secularist C.H.P. would face active hostility — even assault, once — when visiting Duzce. I was surprised to see about 5,000 people waiting to hear Mr. Ince. It was a signifier that he was not preaching to the converted.

A young man I met described himself as a supporter of Mr. Erdogan’s party, but he was curious about Mr. Ince. He spoke about how the people of his city were losing their once-ardent faith in Mr. Erdogan’s party. “Nobody believes them any longer,” he said. “Even at the meetings where they distribute alms, they seal off their seating area to separate themselves from the poor.”

Yet not voting for Mr. Erdogan and his party wasn’t a choice. “Last month, the imam of our village asked all of us to put our hands on the Quran and take an oath to vote for our party,” the young man said. He wouldn’t break his oath but came to agree with the opposition leader’s message.

Mr. Ince is asking the people of Turkey to choose between freedom and fear, between national prestige and national solitude, between imposition of religious practice and freedom to choose, between openness and xenophobia.

Mr. Ince has been challenging President Erdogan for a public debate. “Let us debate on any television network you choose,” he says. The loquacious Mr. Erdogan, who is omnipresent on Turkish television, stayed quiet until Saturday, when he responded with characteristic haughtiness. “He has no shame, inviting me on television,” Mr. Erdogan said, adding that Mr. Ince would try to “ get ratings thanks to us.” Mr. Ince retorted, “He says I want to get ratings, but even the weather forecasts are watched more than his interviews.”

In May, in a speech in the parliament, Mr. Erdogan tried to dismiss Mr. Ince as “a poor person.” The opposition leader responded by asking an important question: “We got the same salary at the same time. How come you became so rich and I am poor?” (Mr. Erdogan’s salary as prime minister between 2003 and 2014 wasn’t a lot more than what members of parliament received. As president he gets paid three times more, but Mr. Ince was referring to the corruption charges against his inner circle.)

Under Mr. Erdogan, polarization between social and ethnic groups has increased in the past several years. His challenger is offering the vision of reconciliation and an end to discriminatory hiring practices by the Turkish state. “The state will have no business if a candidate is Alevi or Sunni, Turkish or Kurdish,” Mr. Ince said at a public meeting last week. “There will be no discrimination whether one is wearing head scarf or not, whether one is a woman or a man.”

Mr. Ince is also changing the misconception that his secularist party’s base is anti-religious by appearing at public rallies with his sister who wears a head scarf. He stood up against the relentless propaganda by the A.K.P. against the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party, and visited its leader and presidential candidate Selahattin Demirtas in prison.

The recent fall in the value of the lira exacerbated economic anxieties in the country. Mr. Ince has offered the vision of strengthening a production-based economy, developing agriculture and offering better conditions for local and foreign investors, apart from educating Turkish youth in both their mother tongue and global languages to compete with the world.

Mr. Ince provided examples of moral leadership long before he was in the fray. In the summer of 2016, the Turkish parliament approved a constitutional amendment stripping its members of immunity from prosecution. The bill was pushed by the governing A.K.P. and its ultranationalist allies to target the members from the Peoples’ Democratic Party.

Mr. Ince argued vociferously against the bill and voted against it despite our party being divided on the subject. Earlier, he stood up against the framing and arrest of Turkish military officers by using false evidence and the hollowing out of the judiciary. He spoke out against the indiscriminate purges after the failed coup of July 2016.

During the parliamentary debates on the regressive changes in education pushed by the A.K.P., Mr. Ince called out the party’s hypocrisy by disclosing that A.K.P. elites were not sending their children to the Imam Hatip (religious) public schools, which they deem appropriate for the rest of society. He also pointed out that although the A.K.P. embroiled the country in wars and whipped up hysteric nationalism, its leaders were not enlisting their sons in military service.

Turks seem to be embracing his slogan of “Making Peace, Growing and Sharing Together.” In late April, the C.H.P. vote share, according to independent polls, was about 20 percent. Within a few weeks of Mr. Ince’s presidential campaign, the C.H.P. vote share has increased to 30 percent.

And with the opposition parties coming together, Mr. Erdogan’s time might finally be running out. But nobody knows which rabbit Mr. Erdogan and his team will pull out of their hats before the polling day.

But the shift in the national mood is evident on the streets, on the usually obsequious television networks, in the tea shops across the country. For the first time in almost two decades, Mr. Erdogan no longer seems invincible. A Turkey where every citizen may live without fear finally seems possible.

Note EU-Digest: A Turkish American citizen who was asked what he thought about the possibility of Muharrem Ince  toppling Erdogan answered: "well better the devil you know than the devil you don't.know". 

If everyone had that similar opinion about dictators in power, many would never have been toppled.

Hopefully this fresh wind, which is presently blowing through Turkey in the form of Muharrem Ince candicacy in the Turkish Presidential elections will give the Turks the courage to vote in large numbers for the next President of Turkey: Muharrem Ince  

Read more: Opinion | The Man Who Could Topple Erdogan - The New York Times

Turkish Presidential Candidate 
Muharrem Ince, rattling Erdogan's base

Turkey’s Tyrannical Rule, Erdogan’s “Democratic Dictatorship” - by Stephen Lendman

The Boss is a dictator - vote NO

Anyone criticizing or challenging his leadership risks imprisonment, including public figures, journalists, academics, other intellectuals, human rights activists, even young children – on charges ranging from insulting the president to terrorism, espionage or treason.

He purged or imprisoned over 100,000 regime critics – from the judiciary, military, police, media and academia.

His state of emergency imposed after last summer’s coup attempt “target(s) criticism, not terrorism,” according to UN High Commissioner for human rights, Zeid Ra’ad al-Hussein.

He uses emergency powers to target dissent, aimed at consolidating unchallenged power.

He’s accused of disappearing opponents, extrajudicial killings, torture, and other flagrant human rights abuses.

Last year, he cited Hitler as a role model, calling his Nazi regime perhaps an ideal way to run Turkey, saying he wants things streamlined for more effective decision-making – code language for wanting iron-fisted rule, all challengers and critics eliminated.

He’s at war with Kurds in Turkey, Syria and Iraq, committing atrocities on the phony pretext of combating terrorism he supports – claiming he has a “historical (regional) responsibility.”

A row between Berlin and Ankara erupted after local German authorities cancelled campaign events Turkish ministers arranged to speak at in support of an April referendum on expanding Erdogan’s presidential powers.

About 1.4 million Turkish nationals live in Germany, eligible to vote in the referendum.

Chancellor Angela Merkel said she had nothing to do with it. Ignoring his own tyrannical rule, Erdogan responded angrily, saying “Germany, you have no relation whatsoever to democracy and you should know that your current actions are no different to those of the Nazi period.”

His spokesman Ibrahim Kalin claimed “(a) huge anti-Turkey, anti-Erdogan attitude is being systematically produced and serviced to the world, especially through Germany.”

Merkel said his accusations “cannot be justified. We will not allow the victims of the Nazis to be trivialized. These comparisons with the Nazis must stop.”

Last month, Die Welt reporter Deniz Yucel, with dual German/Turkish citizenship, was detained in Istanbul, accused of spying for Berlin and representing the outlawed Kurdish PKK group.

Germany called the charges “absurd.” Merkel told parliament her government is working “with all its means” to free him.

A separate row erupted after the Netherlands canceled flight clearance for Turkish Prime Minister Melvut Cavusoglu’s scheduled March 11 visit to Rotterdam to speak at a pro-Erdogan rally.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said Ankara wasn’t respecting public gathering rules, explaining:

    “Many Dutch people with a Turkish background are authorized to vote in the referendum over the Turkish constitution. The Dutch government does not have any protest against gatherings in our country to inform them about it.”

    “But these gatherings may not contribute to tensions in our society and everyone who wants to hold a gathering is obliged to follow instructions of those in authority so that public order and safety can be guaranteed.”

Cavusoglu angrily responded, saying “(i)f the Netherlands cancels my flight clearance today, then we will impose severe sanctions,” adding he intends flying to the country later on Saturday.

A Dutch government statement said his “sanctions threat made search for a reasonable solution impossible.”

Erdogan called Dutch authorities “Nazi remnants, fascists,” warning they’ll be impeded from traveling to Turkey.

How this row gets resolved remains to be seen. Dealings with Erdogan are never easy.

Note EU-Digest: Turkey under leadership of Erdogan is an ever increasing disaster: It is time for the EU, the NATO and democratic countries around the world to call a Spade a Spade and wake up to the fact that it is impossible to deal with this Turkish narcissist president. 

He already is a dictator - has no respect for the present Turkish Constitution, election laws (which forbid the Turkish Government and citizens to hold political rallies abroad); locked up more journalists than China; and has enriched himself and his family with money from illegal business deals .Erdogan's so-called referendum on April 16, 2017 is nothing more than a further attempt to amass more power and influence.. YES INDEED, TURKS AROUND THE WORLD NEED TO PROTECT TURKEY FROM DESTRUCTION AND VOTE NO.

Read more: Turkey’s Tyrannical Rule, Erdogan’s “Democratic Dictatorship” | Global Research - Centre for Research on Globalization