Clobal Political Outlook: The world in 2017: Trump's long shadow and other events to watch

USA: The main thing to watch in 2017 in the US and in the world is the Von Trump family presidency, as dad and the kids likely won't even wrestle with policy issues, because of their supreme confidence in their own grasp of issues like the Middle East and nuclear arms.

It would be great if the shock of the Trump presidency sparked genuine grassroots interest in fixing American's dysfunctional democracy -  only about 55 per cent of eligible voters bothered to go to the polls in 2016 and democracy is retarded by serial maladies, from gerrymandered electorates to state-driven voter suppression to the role of lobbyists to big political donations.

As for US-Russian relations, the fallout from Vladimir Putin's alleged interference in the US elections will likely play out in the first months of the Trump administration, as Trump himself encounters resistance from his own Republican camp on sweeping it under the carpet.

China: One thing to watch in 2017 will be the political jostling and manoeuvring that will heat up ahead of a key Chinese leadership reshuffle at the 19th Party Congress to be held towards the end of the year. All eyes will be on any signalling of a potential future successor to President Xi Jinping, though speculation continues to firm that Xi plans to defy party convention and remain in power beyond the end of his second five-year term in 2022.

Taiwan looks set to pass a marriage equality bill allowing same-sex couples to wed, a move overwhelmingly backed by popular sentiment. Despite a stagnating economy and strained cross-strait relations, becoming the first Asian jurisdiction to legalise same-sex marriage will reinforce its reputation as one of the region's most progressive, vibrant and confident democracies.​

The South China Sea will remain the region's flashpoint with growing concern about the potential for conflict. Incoming US President Donald Trump has already raised questions about the "One China" policy after making a telephone call to Taiwan's leader. What happens in the strategic waters of the South China Sea, where most of Australia's trade passes, will depend on how Trump sets the parameters with China's thin-skinned communist rulers in 2017

Europe: Worst-case scenarios seem to have popped up quite a lot recently, which is a worry, because the worst-case scenario for Europe in 2017 is the effective collapse of the European Union. Under the continuing threat of terrorist attacks and the pressure of incoming refugees from Africa and the Middle East, politics is turning insular. Nationalism is on the rise.

On the eastern front, European states will continue to openly flirt with Russia, or bristle with worry about Donald Trump's commitment to NATO and their security.

Key elections will test whether the mood is merely grim or actually apocalyptic. Geert Wilders' anti-Islam, anti-immigration party will threaten to seize a share of power in the Netherlands, and the National Front's Marine Le Pen is likely to go head-to-head with social and economic conservative Francois Fillon in the French presidential race.

Italy may also go to the polls, with the anti-euro Five Star party in rude electoral health.

Then later in the year, Angela Merkel faces a tough fight to prove Germany's political centre can still command a majority.

Meanwhile, Britain will continue to tie itself in knots over what Brexit is going to involve, and how on earth it can actually be turned from a radical idea into a not-complete-debacle.

Oh, and, Eurovision is in Kiev this year. That's going to be weird..

The world in 2017: Trump's long shadow and other events to watch

EU Economy: What will the European economy look like in 2017? - by Lizzie O'Leary and Stephen Beard

There were three big electoral events affecting the global economy in the second half of 2016.

The biggest event  by far, of course, occurred in the U.S. on November 8th. The other two were in Europe and are set to have repercussions well into 2017: the vote for Brexit in the U.K. and the "no" vote in the Italian referendum.

Marketplace European Bureau Chief Stephen Beard joined Lizzie O’Leary to take a look at Europe moving into the New Year.

Read more: What will the European economy look like in 2017?

Automobile Industry: Panasonic to invest over $256-million in Tesla’s U.S. plant for solar cells

Panasonic Corp will invest more than 30 billion yen ($256-million) in a New York production facility of Elon Musk’s Tesla Motors to make photovoltaic (PV) cells and modules, deepening a partnership of the two companies.

Japan’s Panasonic, which has been retreating from low-margin consumer electronics to focus more on automotive components and other businesses targeting corporate clients, will make the investment in Tesla’s factory in Buffalo, New York.

The U.S. electric car maker is making a long-term purchase commitment from Panasonic as part of the deal, besides providing factory buildings and infrastructure.

In a joint statement on Tuesday, the two companies said they plan to start production of PV modules in the summer of 2017 and increase to one gigawatt of module production by 2019. The plan is part of the solar partnership that the two companies first announced in October, but which did not disclose investment details.

Tesla is working exclusively with longtime partner Panasonic to supplyatteries for its upcoming Model 3, the company’s first mass-market car. Panasonic is also the exclusive supplier of batteries to Tesla’s Model S and Model X.

Read more: Panasonic to invest over $256-million in Tesla’s U.S. plant for solar cells - The Globe and Mail

The Netherlands: Insurance Industry: You are probably paying too much for your car insurance - compare rates offered

Recent studies indicate that most drivers in the Netherlands are paying too much for car insurance.

For a long time, there was no easy way to compare quotes from all these different car insurance companie there, now there is..

Before you had to check one site, then jump to another and enter all of your information all over again. Drivers were stuck doing all the work to save money.

Now, all that has changed, also in the Netherlands Thanks to a company called Geld.nl, providing the information you need to help you save can be found all in one place. Customers who want to buy car insurance are now finding what they are looking for - lower quotes.

What exactly do you need to do? Here is one easy rule to follow.,You have to compare quotes. Don’t even consider buying car insurance without doing this first.

After all the results we came across, we just couldn’t believe how many drivers have been overpaying in th Netherlands. And that should not happen,  with free services like Geld.nl, who can help you compare quotes today, so that you aren’t accidentally paying too much money.

Drivers don’t always realize that car insurance agents make money from your premiums. So, the higher your rate, the more money the agent receives.

This system may also make it difficult to determine if you are getting a fair price. Fortunately, a lot of smart drivers out there have figured out just how to cut down their insurance bill by using free internet tools to get honest and fair quotes.

So next time you are interested in bying car insurance, compare the rates - the Internet makes it easy for you and if someone asks you why, tell them you read it in Insure-Digest.

Insure-Digest

France -Banking Industry: French banks refuse to loan far-right party

French banks are refusing to lend the far-right National Front party money for political reasons, according to a senior party official. This means leader Marine Le Pen may lack the resources needed to fund a presidential campaign in 2017.

As reported online by France 24, National Front party Secretary General Nicolas Bay said he had asked for a loan of about €27m for the April-May presidential and legislative campaigns next year “from among banking establishments in France, Europe and around the world”.

In an interview with Europe 1 radio, Bay said French banks were refusing to lend the party money, he said, adding that the party was facing “discrimination based on political opinions”.

Société Générale, Crédit Agricole, BPCE and Crédit Mutuel did not immediately respond to a request for comment by the Agence France-Presse (AFP), while BNP Paribas and the French banking federation declined to offer a statement.

In a separate report, the Reuters news agency noted that Le Pen has the support of around a quarter of French voters according to opinion polls, but campaign funding has long been an issue.

In 2014, it emerged that the party had received a €9m loan from a Russian lender.

Read  more: French banks refuse to loan far-right party

US Economy: Obama gives gift of solid economy to Trump

President Barack Obama inherited a shattered economy when he came into office that stemmed from the bursting of a housing bubble that led to a financial-sector meltdown.

When the president took over in 2009 the country was in the midst of a deep financial crisis and recession with unemployment near 10 percent.

Eight years later Obama is giving a gift of a solid economy to President-elect Donald Trump.

Despite problem of slow growth and an uneven recovery there has been an economic turnaround under Obama

Unemployment has fallen dramatically to just 4.6 percent, a nine-year low.

When Obama became president nearly 800,000 Americans had lost their jobs. Compare that today when America has gained over 11 million new jobs since Obama took office.

“The labor market is in better shape than at any point in the recovery,” said Jed Kolko, chief economist at the job site Indeed.

In addition to a better economy, 20 million more Americans now have health insurance coverage. Today only 8.9 percent of Americans now lack health insurance, a historic low, according to the National Center for Health Statistics.

Yet Trump has criticized the Obama economy as terrible. He says unemployment is lower because many American gave up search for jobs. Nearly two-thirds of voters described the economy as “not so good” or poor, according to polling after the November election.

The new economic reality is that for decades now jobs options have been dwindling for workers with only high school diplomas. This trend was occurring before Obama took office. Workers in rural towns in which Trump won big never enjoyed the economic recovery that benefited major cities.

Trump was able to capitalize on these economic trends fueled by globalization and technology to ride to victory in November.

Still the fact remain that Obama pulled the economy from the brink of collapse.

Read more: Obama gives gift of solid economy to Trump | Commentary | phillytrib.com

Resolution 2017- Help Clean-up Global Plutocracy:: Breaking Through Power: It's Easier Than We Think

This has become the New Normal: Don't accept it

 "When a small group of people rules a society the political system is considered an oligarchy; when only money and wealth determine how a society is controlled, the political system is a plutocracy.

This is basically the situation we have today in the US, Russia, China, EU and many other countries in the world.

From the standpoint of a democratic society, both oligarchy and plutocracy are inherently unjust and corrupt.

Of course there are variations in the degrees of authoritarianism and cruelty that each system exercises over the communities it relies upon for workers and wealth. Scholars have resorted to using phrases like “benign dictatorships” or “wise rulers” or “paternalistic hierarchies—“ to describe lighter touches by those few who impose their rule over the many.

Thomas Paine simply called them tyrannies. People, families, and communities can only take so much abuse before they rise up to resist. The job of the rulers is always to find that line and provide the lowest level of pay, security, housing, consumer protection, healthcare, and political access for society so that they can extract and hoard the greatest amount of wealth, power, and immunity from justice for themselves. In many ways, the majority of Americans live in a democracy of minimums, while the privileged few enjoy a plutocracy of maximums.

In a plutocracy, commercialism dominates far beyond the realm of economics and business; everything is for sale, and money is power. But in an authentic democracy, there must be commercial-free zones where the power of human rights, citizenship, community, equality, and justice are free from the corrupting influence of money. Our elections and our governments should be such commercial-free zones; our environment, air, and water should never fall under the control of corporations or private owners. Children should not be programmed by a huckstering economy where their vulnerable consciousness becomes the target of relentless corporate marketing and advertising.

American history demonstrates that whenever commerce dominates all aspects of national life, a host of ills and atrocities have not just festered and spread, but become normal—enslavement, land grabs, war, ethnic cleansing, serfdom, child labor, abusive working conditions, corrupt political systems, environmental contamination, and immunity from the law for the privileged few. History also shows that whenever there have been periods when enough of the country organizes and resists, we see movements of people and communities breaking through power. Progress is made. Rights are won.

Education and literacy increase. Oppression is diminished. It was in this manner that people of conscience abolished the living nightmare imposed by the laws and whips of white enslavers. The nation moved closer to promises of “Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness” expressed in the Declaration of Independence. We won more control over our work, our food, our land, our air, and our water. Women secured the right to vote. Civil rights were elevated and enforced. Public schools, improved environments, workplace collective bargaining, and consumer protections did not spontaneously evolve; they were won by people demanding them and breaking through power.

These moments of great progress are expressed in terms of new legislation, regulations, and judicial decisions that directly benefit the life, liberties, and pursuit of happiness of most Americans. From the abolition of slavery to the introduction of seat belts, great social gains have been achieved when people mobilize, organize, and resist the power of the few. The problem is that these liberating periods of humanitarian and civilizational progress are of shorter duration than the relentless commercial counterforces that discourage and disrupt social movements and their networks of support. Some commentators have used the bizarre term “justice fatigue” to describe the pullback that often occurs when communities of resistance are faced with increased surveillance, infiltration, harassment, and arrest. A more accurate term is repression.

Concentrated power in the hands of the few really should matter to you. It matters to you if you are denied fulltime gainful employment or paid poverty wages and there are no unions to defend your interests. It matters to you if you’re denied affordable health care. It matters to you if you’re gouged by the drug industry and your medication is outrageously expensive. It matters to you if it takes a long time to get to and from work due to lack of good public transit or packed highways. It matters to you if you and your children live in impoverished areas and have to breathe dirtier air and drink polluted water and live in housing that is neglected by your landlord. It matters to you if your children are receiving a substandard education in understaffed schools where they are being taught to obey rather than to question, think and imagine, especially in regards to the nature of power.

If you’re a little better off, it matters to you when your home is unfairly threatened with foreclosure. It matters to you when the nation is economically destabilized due to Wall Street’s crimes, and your retirement account evaporates overnight. It matters to you if you can’t pay off your large student loans, or if you can’t get out from under crushing credit-card debt or enormous medical bills due to being under-insured. It matters to you if you are constantly worried about the security of your job, or the costly care of your children and elderly parents.

“We live in a beautiful country,” writes historian Howard Zinn. “But people who have no respect for human life, freedom, or justice have taken it over. It is now up to all of us to take it back.” To better assess what it specifically takes to do just that, it is important to understand how the people profiting from plutocratic forces strategically and regularly dominate old and new circumstances with powerful controlling processes".

With elections coming up in in Europe and other countries of the world in 2017- don't ever believe it is too difficult for you as one person to make a difference.  Speak out, join an advocacy group, or even organize one yourself. Go to political meetings of your choice and ask questions.

Politicians need your vote and will listen to you, specially if their political career depends on it.Politicians will usually also tell you everything you want to hear, and will even lie through their teeth, as long as you give them your vote. Check their voting record and compare it to their promises.  You will notice that most of what they told you before they never materialized. Question them about it in Public.

In Europe these questions could be : "why is Europe spending millions of euros fighting loosing wars in the Middle East.  What is done to improve education, Why has the care for the elderly declined so dramatically?" 

Or people in the US could ask: "why do we still have an outdated voting system, How come military spending figures are kept secret, etc etc".

Believe it or not, your future and that of your children stands or falls based on your involvement as a Citizen. Sitting at home and watching "pre-cooked" news by the corporate owned media or wondering what kind of dog food is better for your dog won't get you anywhere.

Most of the above quoted text comes from an easy-to-read compact book by Ralph Nader, called "Breaking Through Power" - You can order it on line and certainly will find it most fascinating as the world around you becomes more bizarre by the minute.

Wishing you a Merry Christmas and an active and involved 2017 - hope you will take-off those slippers and use them to start slapping your politicians into shape and making them listen more attentively to you and what your needs are.

EU-Digest

Money Laundering: EU tables new rules to counter money laundering- by Irene Kostaki

The European Commission on December 21 proposed the tightening of controls on cash and precious metals that are transferred to the bloc from non-EU countries.

The proposal is part of the EU’s action plan to cut financing to Islamic State. It comes after the December 19 attack in Berlin in which 12 people were killed when a truck ploughed into a crowd at a busy Christmas market.

Under the new proposals, customs officials in EU member states will be given the powers of checking freight payments via cards and prepaid/debit cards.

This means that anyone carrying more than €10,000 in cash will be required to declare this at customs when entering the EU.

EU officials also said some of the recent attacks in Europe were carried out with limited funds, sometimes sent from outside the EU. These amounts probably originated from criminal activities, such as drug dealing, according to Vera Jourova, the EU Commissioner for Justice.

She presented the Commission’s proposal on freezing terrorists’ financial resources and on confiscating assets – even from those who are only suspected of being connected to criminals.

“There are a lot of new ways of transferring money and not all of those are covered in the EU-US scheme,” Julian King, the Commissioner for the Security Union, told a news conference in Brussels. He also said the Commission will study the impact of a possible EU programme and “report back by next summer”.

Read more: EU tables new rules to counter money laundering

Italian Economy: Italy moves to rescue its banks

On Wednesday, Italy's two houses of parliament approved a government request to increase the public debt by up to 20 billion euros (20.8 billion dollars) to fund a rescue package for ailing banks. It will likely begin by recapitalizing Monte dei Paschi di Siena.

MPS, founded in 1472 and considered the world's oldest lender, is struggling to complete a 5-billion-euro recapitalization by year's end, as required by the European Central Bank after recent stress tests showed it was grossly undercapitalized in view of a heavy burden of billions of euros in uncollectable debts on its books.

MPS was set to announce on Thursday its failure to find sufficient private investment money to bolster its capital base. In the night before Thursday, MPS announced it had been able to collect less than 2.5 billion euros through debt-equity swaps, and that no major investor had responded to its recapitalization bid, which started Monday and was due to close at 2 pm Thursday.

A resolution in the lower Chamber of Deputies, which was in favour of the government's plan, was approved in a 389-134 vote. There were 8 abstentions. A few minutes later, the Senate also gave its go-ahead in a 221-60 vote, with 3 abstentions.

The 20-billion-euro sum "is sufficient" to solve the problems of an Italian banking sector that "is solid, healthy, but with some well-known critical cases with specific characteristics for each," Minister for the Economy and Finanaces, Pier Carlo Padoan, told the Chamber of Deputies.

The money will fund a "precautionary" safety net, and could be used to inject capital into lenders needing to increase their capital buffers, or to reimburse retail savers caught up in the new European Union 'bail-in' rules. Those rules are meant to ensure that private investors - including retail clients - will bear most of the costs of bank bailouts, rather than taxpayers bearing the cost as was the case in the wake of the banking crises that occurred in the wake of the 2008 financial system meltdown.

Read more: Italy moves to rescue its banks | Business | DW.COM | 21.12.2016

Wall Street: Dow 20,000 and Donald Trump as the embodiment of animal spirits: by Don Pittis

Even as stock markets climb higher and the Dow Jones industrial average flirts with the 20,000 mark, some of our wisest critics have continued to doubt the substance of the Donald Trump rally.

Rational analysts assumed that last week's hike in interest rates from the U.S. Federal Reserve, with hints of more to come, would knock the stuffing out of the market surge.

But in a world where rationality has repeatedly failed to guide us, maybe it's time to revisit the idea that irrationality — namely president-elect Donald Trump as the embodiment of animal spirits — has a far greater effect on markets than rational analysts might have us think.

The fact is, economics contains more voodoo than many of its exponents admit.

Trump's role is as cheerleader, appointing cabinet members who seem to favour business success, promoting policy that seems to support new investment and growth.

Research conducted for the Globe and Mail's Report on Business shows that even in Canada Trump is spurring executive optimism. Studies in the U.S. also show business leaders have been energized by the election results.

For many critics, economic optimism requires a certain amount of nose-holding and ear plugging.

Trump's outrageous stance on many issues, such as yesterday's comment about "Islamists who slaughter Christians," could lead to outcomes disruptive to the economy.

And the rationalists could be right. An overpriced dollar could kill off U.S. exports. A shortage of labour could block growth. Trouble in Europe or Japan could be contagious. Growing inequality or environmental outrage could lead to a political backlash.

But if the new U.S. president can concentrate on being the economic orchestra leader, convincing Americans that now is the time to succeed and invest, urging on the sections at the back and getting everyone to play in concert, maybe the great performer will have found his best role.

Read more: Dow 20,000 and Donald Trump as the embodiment of animal spirits: Don Pittis - Business - CBC News

Britain: Deloitte agrees not to bid for Government contracts after leaked Brexit memo row - by Steven Swinford

One of the world's biggest consultancies has agreed not to bid for central Government contracts for six months following a furious row with Theresa May over a Brexit memo.

Last month a consultant working for Deloitte claimed in a two-page memo that civil servants were struggling to cope with more than 500 Brexit-related projects amid Cabinet splits.

The memo prompted a withering response from Downing Street, which dismissed the memo as "unsolicited" and accused Deloitte of "touting for business".

Deloitte last night issued a statement saying that it had put forward "a plan for working with central Government to put this matter behind us".

It said: "Deloitte regrets the publication of the two-page note, and has apologised for the unintended disruption it caused the Government. The note was intended for internal audiences and was not a Deloitte point of view."

Downing Street declined to comment on the arrangement with Deloitte.

At the time the memo was leaked, former work and pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith said the consultancy should be stripped of Government contracts, while other Eurosceptic Conservative MPs suggested the document had been released in an attempt by Remain campaigners to frustrate Brexit.

Note EU-Digest: The Deloitte Memo also shows that Britain's government is ill prepareed  to cope with BREXIT's article 50  

Read more: Deloitte agrees not to bid for Government contracts after leaked Brexit memo row 

EU Refugee Crises: Why Are EU Politicians Never Mentioning US Is To Blame For EU Refugee Crises ? - by A. Bacevich

The Middle East: From Bad To Worse

‘If you break it, you own it.” Colin Powell’s Pottery Barn Rule, warning George W. Bush of the consequences of invading Iraq, turned out to be dead wrong.

Make that half wrong. Bush broke it — “it” being a swath of the greater Middle East. But the U.S. adamantly refuses to accept anything like ownership of the consequences stemming from Bush’s recklessly misguided acts and you will never hear a European politician openly admit to it.

Not least among those consequences is the crisis that finds refugees fleeing Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and other parts of the Islamic world in search of asylum in the West. The European nations most directly affected have greeted this wave with more hostility than hospitality — Germany, for a time, at least offering a notable exception.

For its part, the U.S. has responded with pronounced indifference. In a gesture of undisguised tokenism, the Obama administration has announced it will admit a grand total of 10,000 Syrians — one-eightieth the number that Germany has agreed to accept this year alone.

No doubt proximity plays a part in explaining the contrast between German and U.S. attitudes. Viewed from Wichita or Walla Walla, the plight of those who hand themselves over to human traffickers in hopes of crossing the Mediterranean plays out at a great distance.

Syria is what Neville Chamberlain would have described as a faraway country of which Americans know nothing (and care less). And Iraq and Afghanistan are faraway countries that most Americans have come to regret knowing.

Such attitudes may be understandable. They are also unconscionable.

To attribute the refugee crisis to any single cause would be misleading. A laundry list has contributed: historical and sectarian divisions within the region; the legacy of European colonialism; the absence of anything even approximating enlightened local leadership able to satisfy the aspirations of people tired of corruption, economic stagnation, and authoritarian rule; the appeal — inexplicable to Westerners — of violent Islamic radicalism. All play a role.

USA: The Creator Of The George Bush Refugee Crises 

Yet when it comes to why this fragile structure collapsed just now we can point to a single explanation — the cascading after-effects of a decision made by Bush during the spring of 2002 to embrace a doctrine of preventative war.

The previous autumn, U.S. forces toppled the government of Afghanistan, punishing the Taliban for giving sanctuary to those who plotted the 9/11 attacks. Bush effectively abandoned Afghanistan to its fate and set out to topple another regime, one that had no involvement whatsoever in 9/11.

For Bush, going after Saddam Hussein’s Iraq formed part of a larger strategy. He and his lieutenants fancied that destroying the old order in the greater Middle East would position the U.S. to create a more amenable new order. Back in 1991, after a previous Iraq encounter, Bush’s father had glimpsed a “new world order.” Now a decade later, the son set out to transform the father’s vision into reality.

The administration called this its Freedom Agenda, which would begin in Iraq but find further application throughout the greater Middle East. Coercion rather than persuasion held the key to its implementation, its plausibility resting on unstoppable military power. For Bush’s inner circle, including Dick Cheney, Condoleezza Rice, Donald Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz (but not Powell), victory was foreordained.

They miscalculated. The unsettled (but largely ignored) condition of Afghanistan after the fall of the Taliban already hinted at the extent of that miscalculation. The chaos that descended upon Iraq as a direct result of the U.S. invasion affirmed it. The Freedom Agenda made it as far as Baghdad and there it died.

That Saddam was a brutal tyrant is a given. We need not mourn his departure. Yet while he ruled he at least kept a lid on things. Bush blew off that lid, naively expecting liberal democracy or at least deference to American authority to emerge. Instead, “liberating” Iraq produced conditions conducive to the violent radicalism today threatening to envelop the region.

The Islamic State offers but one manifestation of this phenomenon. Were it not for Bush’s invasion of Iraq, ISIL would not exist — that’s a fact. Responsibility for precipitating the rise of this vile movement rests squarely with Washington.

So rather than cluck over the reluctance of Greeks, Serbs, Hungarians and others to open their borders to those fleeing from the mess the U.S. played such a large part in creating, Americans would do better to engage in acts of contrition.

On the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, former president Bush visited New Orleans, implicitly acknowledging that his administration’s response to that disaster just might have fallen a bit short. It was a handsome gesture. A similar gesture is in order toward the masses fleeing the region into Turkey and Europe.

It’s never too late to say to say you’re sorry. 

Note EU-Digest: as to our own "whimpy" EU politicians, who are supporting these totally failed US Middle East Policies, they ask no questions. They continue backing this madness with costly military assistance from the air and on the ground, financed by taxpayers money. 

Why are European Politicians not coming to their senses and develop their own independent foreign policies based on the real needs of the EU.

After all, as the saying goes, "charity begins at home" . 

 EU-Digest

The head of the No. 1 investment bank in the world explains why Brexit, Trump, and everything else have been great for trading - by Matt Turner

A bunch of events in 2016 had the potential to send the market into a tailspin.

From the Brexit decision in June to the election of Donald Trump in November and the Italian vote against constitutional changes in December, there have been unexpected election results and breaks with the status quo.

And while these events spurred trading activity, they did not roil the market in the way that many had predicted. In recent weeks, the US stock market has regularly topped record highs, for example.

According to Daniel Pinto, the CEO of JPMorgan's giant investment bank, the events all triggered what has been called "good volatility." That is to say that trading has been continuous, trading volumes have been healthy, and markets have been liquid.

That kind of trading is "our business" and a "positive thing," Pinto said. Here's the relevant passage from the interview, which you can read in full here:

Turner: Brexit, the election of Trump, the Italian referendum maybe, they all seem to be breaks from the status quo. Everything is new. There's a new party in government in the US. The UK is leaving the EU. Who knows what is going to happen in Italy. The market suddenly has to make sense of a lot more new information. Does that create more volume going forward?

Pinto: Probably. The important thing is that the market functions rather than the events or nonevents. The important thing is that at the time an event happens, the market should continue providing liquidity. When asset managers or clients need to reposition their books, in whatever direction, the market liquidity is there at a certain price. Higher volumes and more volatility in a continuous market, where it doesn't gap, is a good thing. That's our business. That is a positive thing. The last two or three events were positive events because there was volatility in a market that was functioning.

Read more: The head of the No. 1 investment bank in the world explains why Brexit, Trump, and everything else have been great for trading

EU: The race for EU membership – with 10 countries still trying to get in-the gate is temporarily closed

Politico reports that the United Kingdom might be trying to check out of the European Union, but there are at least 10 countries keen to be in. There’s a problem though: The EU’s golden age of expansion is over.

Sorry No More Room At The Inn

While national governments would like to ensure political stability in the EU’s neighborhood, they have no appetite to let those countries join before 2025. For some countries, such as Turkey, there’s almost no chance of ever joining. The European Parliament and countries such as Austria are already trying to suspend membership negotiations with Turkey.

“I won’t set a speed limit on the road to Europe,” said Johannes Hahn, the European commissioner responsible for EU enlargement, who insisted “Each candidate defines speed of joining via [its] own merit.”

At the same time, Hahn told a Western Balkans policy summit hosted by Friends of Europe on December 7, that there is a majority against EU enlargement in most EU countries. Instead of pushing EU national governments before they are ready Hahn suggested candidate countries focus on economic development and anti-corruption efforts.

Shada Islam, Europe director at Friends of Europe, is pessimistic. “I think we need to stop pretending and accept that there will be no new enlargement for many years — and that all these countries have a long way to go before they meet any of the key membership criteria,” Islam said, adding that given six to 10 years of continuous effort, the six Balkan nations may have a chance at membership.

The countries lining up for EU membership are becoming restless. “Enlargement is not high on the EU’s agenda and we know it,” said Natalie Sabanadze, Georgia’s ambassador to the EU.

Prior to the closed-door policy of the Juncker Commission, leaders in countries wanting to join the EU could promise to voters that EU membership would be forthcoming in exchange for sometimes difficult institutional and policy reforms. Today, even if a country meets all of the EU’s requirements it may be blocked for political reasons.

Western Balkans countries see themselves as rooted in Europe and warn that the EU will hurt itself if it fails to draw them close. Tanja Miščevič, Serbia’s chief membership negotiator, said “The Schengen system cannot function, and energy union cannot be completed, without the Western Balkan countries.”

Ditmir Bushati, Albania’s foreign minister, said that while it is clear “No one will be able to join EU in foreseeable future” it would be dangerous to allow Russia to fill a vacuum in his region.

If anyone can become a surprise front-runner in the membership race it is Albania, already a NATO member and mostly free from the complications of the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s.

All other prospective EU members in the Western Balkans suffer fundamental complications. For Macedonia, it’s as simple as Greece refusing to even recognize its name. Allowing Montenegro and Kosovo to join without Serbia alongside them could create a security risk for both countries. Bosnia and Herzegovina is in the worst position of all and may hold these countries back if the EU insists they join in bloc formation.

“I won’t set a speed limit on the road to Europe,” said Johannes Hahn, the European commissioner responsible for EU enlargement, who insisted “Each candidate defines speed of joining via [its] own merit.”

At the same time, Hahn told a Western Balkans policy summit hosted by Friends of Europe on December 7, that there is a majority against EU enlargement in most EU countries. Instead of pushing EU national governments before they are ready Hahn suggested candidate countries focus on economic development and anti-corruption efforts.

Shada Islam, Europe director at Friends of Europe, is pessimistic. “I think we need to stop pretending and accept that there will be no new enlargement for many years — and that all these countries have a long way to go before they meet any of the key membership criteria,” Islam said, adding that given six to 10 years of continuous effort, the six Balkan nations may have a chance at membership.

    “Georgia is stubbornly pursuing [the] European and Euro-Atlantic course despite difficulties and costs involved” — Natalie Sabanadze, the Georgian ambassador

The countries lining up for EU membership are becoming restless. “Enlargement is not high on the EU’s agenda and we know it,” said Natalie Sabanadze, Georgia’s ambassador to the EU.

Prior to the closed-door policy of the Juncker Commission, leaders in countries wanting to join the EU could promise to voters that EU membership would be forthcoming in exchange for sometimes difficult institutional and policy reforms. Today, even if a country meets all of the EU’s requirements it may be blocked for political reasons.

Western Balkans countries see themselves as rooted in Europe and warn that the EU will hurt itself if it fails to draw them close. Tanja Miščevič, Serbia’s chief membership negotiator, said “The Schengen system cannot function, and energy union cannot be completed, without the Western Balkan countries.”

Ditmir Bushati, Albania’s foreign minister, said that while it is clear “No one will be able to join EU in foreseeable future” it would be dangerous to allow Russia to fill a vacuum in his region.

If anyone can become a surprise front-runner in the membership race it is Albania, already a NATO member and mostly free from the complications of the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s.

All other prospective EU members in the Western Balkans suffer fundamental complications. For Macedonia, it’s as simple as Greece refusing to even recognize its name. Allowing Montenegro and Kosovo to join without Serbia alongside them could create a security risk for both countries. Bosnia and Herzegovina is in the worst position of all and may hold these countries back if the EU insists they join in bloc formation.

Don’t expect the European Commission to give firm indications about any of this in 2017: The EU promises a policy update only in spring 2018.

Several EU officials POLITICO spoke to suggested that with Brexit and a new budget to negotiate and implement from 2020-2026, the EU simply doesn’t have room on its plate until 2027 to consider new members.

Goran Svilanović, a former Serbian foreign minister, and now head of the Regional Cooperation Council, said he is “very frustrated” by this approach and says that it would be better to “start negotiating. Keep us busy. Help us be successful.”

No country has even turned around a membership application in less than five years (Finland is the current record holder), and for former Warsaw Pact and Yugoslav states, 10-15 years is typical.

If Iceland decided to reapply for EU membership it would immediately shoot to the front of the queue, and if Scotland were to achieve independence, it would not be far behind. The Scottish government is keen. “As part of our response to the EU referendum we are exploring all options to protect Scotland’s relationship with Europe,” a government spokesperson said.

Another potential big member, Ukraine, is realistic about its membership prospects. Given the country’s internal difficulties and the rejection by Dutch voters of the country’s ‘Association Agreement’ with the EU, diplomats say neither it nor the EU are ready for membership. It would in any case be “suicidal” to join the EU while Russia is headed by Vladimir Putin, a senior diplomat told POLITICO.

Natalie Sabanadze, the Georgian ambassador, said Georgia is in a similar position. “Georgia is stubbornly pursuing [the] European and Euro-Atlantic course despite difficulties and costs involved,” she said.

THE CANDIDATES

ALBANIA
Not before 2025
Chances of joining: 80 percent

Pros: Albania has shown an ability to deliver bipartisan reforms and is “the least screwed-up country” in the Western Balkans, according to a diplomat active in the region. The country largely avoided the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s, allowing it distance from the problems of other EU applicants in the region.

Cons: Formal negotiations have not yet started, and corruption and organized crime remain serious problems, according to the European Commission. The Commission has also criticized the politicization of Albania’s courts.

MONTENEGRO
Not before 2027
Chances of joining: 90 percent

Pros: Montenegro is the richest Western Balkan nation per capita and has shown ongoing willingness to be part of Western institutions, as illustrated by its nearly completed bid for NATO membership.

Cons: Corruption remains “prevalent” and a “serious problem” according to the Commission, and other political and economic progress is moderate. Allowing Montenegro membership without including Serbia would expose the small nation to a security risk.

SERBIA
Not before 2027
Chances of joining: 80 percent

Pros: Serbia is the biggest of the Western Balkan countries hoping to join the EU, and could be a pro-EU stabilizing force in the region and good neighbor if kept within the EU’s orbit. The Commission has praised Serbia for aligning its legislation with the EU across the board.

Cons: There has been no progress over the past year in fighting corruption. Serbia may also continue refusing to recognize Kosovo unless offered EU membership, which may be tactically clever but breaches the spirit of EU norms.

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
Not before 2027, possibly much later
Chances of joining: 50 percent

Pros: This multi-ethnic, multi-religion country could one day be a poster child for the EU’s ability to forge unity from diversity. And if the EU membership process can drag Bosnia up to speed with its neighbors, the prize could be a transformed region.

Cons: Not even the citizens of this country can agree on its basis or continued existence. The country’s constitution will also need a dramatic makeover to meet EU fundamental rights and other standards.

KOSOVO
Not before 2027
Chances of joining: 30 percent

Pros: Kosovo stands to gain strength in numbers and valuable institution-building capacity through the EU membership process, and has already adopted the euro as its currency.

Cons: It is home to a troubled EU rule-of-law mission (which at times has had 2,000 staff members), and due to deep political polarization and ongoing corruption, the journey to EU membership will be a long one. Its sovereignty is not recognized by five EU countries, nor by its biggest neighbor Serbia.

MACEDONIA
Not before 2030
Chances of joining: 50 percent

Pros: The country has fewer internal problems than Bosnia.

Cons: Membership negotiations have been painfully slow. Greece objects to even the name “Macedonia” as it sees this as a threat to the territorial integrity of its own Macedonia region. Macedonia also has numerous disputes with Bulgaria and there are persistent concerns to democracy and rule of law.

GEORGIA
Not before 2035
Chances of joining: 20 percent

Pros: Its government could not be more positive about the EU in its rhetoric. “Georgia has no alternative,” Ambassador Sabanadze told POLITICO. “Georgians want to live in a normal, European-style democracy and they want to safeguard political independence and territorial integrity.”

Cons: Georgia is saddled with its former relationship with Russia, and like Ukraine, faces a frustrated path to EU and NATO membership, independent of the reforms it delivers as part of its membership bid.

MOLDOVA
Not before 2035
Chances of joining: 50 percent

Pros: Moldova has strong ties, a shared language and a similar culture to its neighbor Romania.

Cons: The small country has a breakaway republic (Transnistria) supported by a Russian military presence, and is the poorest of the prospective EU members. A pro-Russian, anti-EU president was elected last month.

UKRAINE
Not before 2035
Chances of joining: 20 percent

Pros: Millions of Ukrainians are so committed to moving into the EU’s political and economic orbit they are willing to protest or shed blood. EU links are a means to achieving stability in the post-Soviet era.

Cons: Even a loose “Association Agreement” proved too much for Dutch voters to accept in 2016, and political fears delayed EU government support for visa-free access for Ukrainians into the Schengen area. Its easter regions are war-torn and Crimea was annexed by Russia in 2014.

TURKEY
Possible joining date: Not applicable
Chances of joining: 0 percent

Pros: Inclusion of Turkey into Western institutions, and a sign that moderate Islam is welcome at the world’s top tables.

Cons: Turkey has been drifting toward authoritarianism under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, with fundamental rule of law and freedom of expression problems. Only a small percentage of the country is geographically in Europe. Some EU institutions such as the Parliament, and governments such as Austria’s, want membership talks suspended.

ICELAND
Not before 2022.
Chances of joining: 100 percent if a reapplication is made. 20 percent overall.

Pros: One of the world’s oldest democracies, Iceland boasts a strategic mid-Atlantic location, high education levels and strong cultural links to Europe.

Cons: Iceland has permanent Euroskeptic factions born from concern about protecting the nation’s fishing rights (which would be limited and partially collectivized in the EU), and the fact that it got rich on its own, and doesn’t need the EU to develop.

SCOTLAND
Possible joining date: Five years after applying, meaning not before 2024.
Chances of joining: 90 percent if application is made. 20 percent overall.

Pros: An independent Scotland in the EU would be a major prize for European integrationists. Scotland is EU-enthusiastic, with a government spokesperson calling Brexit: “a democratic outrage” against Scottish voters.

Cons: Anything short of Scotland’s full independence from the U.K. might trigger Spain to block Scotland’s bid to avoid setting a precedent for Catalan nationalists.

EU-Digest

The Netherlands: Dutch economy back to pre-crisis levels: Government - The Economic Times

The Dutch economy has grown by 2.1 percent this year the government's economic think tank said on Tuesday, thereby recovering to pre-financial crisis levels.

"With one quarter to go, 2016 has been a special year for economic recovery," The Hague-based Central Planning Office (CPB) said in a statement.

"Production per capita is back to 2008 levels following double dips in 2009 and 2012-13," the CPB said, adding that the last time Europe's sixth-largest economy showed such growth after a sustained crises period was back in the 1980's .

Unemployment also fell, from 6.9 percent to 6.0 percent, in 2016 with a further dip to 5.3 percent predicted for next year -- but remains well above the 4.0 percent unemployment figure of 2008.

The CPB said improved growth was mainly due to a rise in consumer spending, with a thaw in the housing market.

For the complete report click here

The Brexit Fallout - EU leaders sing from same Brexit hymn sheet - hy Katya Adler

The EU Commission has announced a settlement imposing significant fines on Sanyo, Sony and Panasonic for breaching competition law. The fines relate to anti-competitive behaviour between 2004 and 2007 surrounding the distribution of rechargeable lithium-ion batteries. These batteries power most mobile phones, laptops and tablets.

Anti-competitive behaviour

The Commission investigation showed that the companies had been involved in discussions to avoid aggressive competition in the market for lithium-ion batteries. These discussions occurred mainly in Asia but sometimes in Europe. Even if discussions had taken place solely in Asia, the Commission could still have found them to be in breach of competition law if the behaviour was likely to cause a distortion to the European marketplace.

The cartel agreed on temporary price increases in 2004 and 2007 following increases in the price of a cobalt and exchanged commercially sensitive information concerning price, supply and demand forecasts, along with intentions to tender for particular contracts.

Settlement and fines

In determining the fines the Commission took into account the companies’ sales of lithium-ion batteries in the European Economic Area (EEA), the nature of the infringement, its geographic scope and duration but also the level of co-operation displayed by the firm with their investigation. Settlement alone resulted in a 10% reduction in each firm’s fine, while co-operation garnered reductions of between 20% – 50%.

Another manufacturer was given immunity for blowing the whistle on the arrangement. Regular readers of the blog will know that early and complete co-operation with a Commission investigation is generally recommended course of action and that whistle blowers always benefit.

In the end, Sony was fined €29,802,000, Panasonic €38,890,000 and Sanyo €97,149,000.

Follow on claims

As with all Commission findings of anti-competitive behaviour, it is held to be “self-proving” evidence that the behaviour took place and was illegal. Thus, if a person or business has suffered loss on account of the behaviour, they can raise a claim in their national court seeking a remedy. New rules are coming into force from 27 December 2016 that will make it easier for consumers and small businesses to pursue these claims.


Read more: EU leaders sing from same Brexit hymn sheet - BBC News

International Trade-Dumping Duties:China starts trade battle over Market Economy Status

eijing on Monday (12 December) filed a dispute with the World Trade Organization over the approach used by the European Union and the United States to calculate anti-dumping measures against Chinese exports.

When China joined the WTO in 2001, its accession terms allowed other WTO members to treat it as a non-market economy when assessing dumping duties for 15 years. That gave trade partners the advantage of using a third country’s prices to gauge whether China was selling its goods below market value.

But part of that clause expired on Sunday (11 December), which China says means trading partners must drop their use of such surrogate pricing.

China’s commerce ministry regretted that the EU and the US have not carried out their obligation and has requested consultations with both parties to have a WTO panel rule, the first step in what will likely be a drawn out battle at the Geneva-based body.

“China has communicated through many channels for the third-country comparison to expire. What’s very regrettable is that the EU and US have not acted to allow it to expire. It has had a severe impact on Chinese exports,” it said. “China is protecting its lawful rights and acting appropriately to maintain the WTO rules.”

The European Commission proposed last month a new way of treating China, but its plans are awaiting approval from the EU’s 28 member states and the European Parliament.

Read more: China starts trade battle over Market Economy Status – EurActiv.com

THE TRUMP DOCTRINE: Alliance Between Russia - US? As Tillerson - Putin′s friend becomes Trump′s Secretary of State

He's not even on the job yet, and Rex Tillerson is already facing a stiff headwind: The 64-year-old has no government experience; as the CEO of Exxon Mobil Corporation he cut business deals with autocrats, even allowing them to pin medals on his chest. Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio tweeted that he doesn't want a friend of Putin's in the State Department. Senator John McCain of Arizona, also a Republican, criticized Tillerson's close ties to the Kremlin as well. New Jersey Democratic Senator Bob Menendez called the decision "absurd." Others will join the chorus of critics. None of this bodes well for the Senate confirmation hearing that the future secretary of state will face. Majority approval seems anything but certain.

Nevertheless, Donald Trump has chosen him, and thus chosen to pick yet another fight with his own party. Why?

Both men see foreign policy as a business endeavor. And, to a certain degree it is - especially in the USA. But it is also something more. What about areas in which the USA has nothing to gain financially; for instance, when it comes to defending human rights? Those who are engaged in defending human dignity around the globe generally don't make a lot of friends - especially among dictators. For decades, American secretaries of state have done just that alongside their colleagues in Western Europe. And they have been successful if one considers the growing number of democracies throughout the world.

Note EU-Digest: the EU better start preparing a plan B in case the US cuts off their umbilical cord with the US, on which they have come to rely so heavily.

Read more: Opinion: Rex Tillerson - Putin′s friend and Trump′s secretary of state | Opinion | DW.COM | 13.12.2016

Tax Havens: Ireland and four UK territories named on 'world's worst tax havens' list

The Republic of Ireland along with four UK-linked territories – Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, Jersey and the British Virgin Islands – appear in a new list of the world’s 15 worst corporate tax havens revealed by Oxfam.

They earned their place on the list of shame because they've adopted an aggressive set of policies to enable companies to minimise their tax bills.

And Oxfam chief executive Jim Clarken has warned there is "a risk" that Northern Ireland too could be used as a tax haven when it introduces its lower rate of corporation tax in 2018, leaving those who can least afford it to pick up the tab.

Oxfam analysed key practices such as offering unfair and unproductive tax incentives and zero corporate tax rates, as well as failure to cooperate with international processes to combat tax avoidance including measures to increase financial transparency.

The ‘Tax Battles’ report highlights how tax havens help to facilitate tax dodging that robs countries around the world of vital revenue that could be used to fight poverty.

In May more than 300 top economists, including Cambridge University professor Ha-Joon Chang, warned there is no economic justification for tax havens and urged world leaders to take on the powerful vested interests that benefit from the status quo.

The new report follows Oxfam-commissioned research in Northern Ireland, conducted by Millward Brown Ulster, which revealed that 89 per cent of people here are concerned that when big firms don’t pay their fair share of tax, ordinary people pay the price.

The survey showed that 87 per cent of people in Northern Ireland want Theresa May to prioritise ending tax avoidance.

Clarken said: “Ireland is part of a toxic global tax system servicing the very wealthiest while ordinary people pay the price and lose out on essential public services.

"And with Northern Ireland set to take control of corporation tax in 2018, there is overwhelming public support to ensure any new proposed tax regime here is fair, open and transparent – and that it does not impact negatively on vulnerable people.

“Any reform of the corporate tax system must contain safeguards preventing companies from taking advantage to avoid tax owed elsewhere. Otherwise there is a risk that Northern Ireland could be used as a tax haven, leaving those who can least afford it to pick up the tab."

He added: “Tax dodging isn’t an abstract accounting game – the lost revenue has devastating consequences for the world’s poorest people who miss out on life-saving medicines and the chance to go to school.

“Around the world Ireland is known as a country of good fun, bad weather and awful tax policies that facilitate worsening inequality by allowing some of the world’s richest companies to avoid paying their fair share to society. This is no badge of honour.

“Having the UK Overseas Territories and Crown Dependencies operate as tax havens undermines these islands’ efforts to be outward-facing, responsible members of the international community. It’s time to end this embarrassing contradiction in our own backyard.”

Bermuda tops the list of 15 countries followed by the Cayman Islands and the Netherlands. Switzerland and Singapore are in fourth and fifth place followed by Ireland.

Luxembourg is in seventh place, Curaçao is eighth and Hong Kong ninth. The countries ranked from 10th to 15th are Cyprus, the Bahamas, Jersey, Barbados, Mauritius and the British Virgin Islands.

Ireland’s score was based on its lack of effective rules to prevent corporate tax dodging and because it facilitates large-scale corporate tax avoidance through profit-shifting, aggressive tax planning structures and so-called sweetheart deals like the tax arrangements enjoyed by Apple that enabled the global tech giant to pay a 0.005 percent corporate tax rate.

Read more: Ireland and four UK territories named on 'world's worst tax havens' list - The Irish News

Educational expenditure Foreign Students: International College Students Leery of Trump Could Cost U.S. Billions - Safia Samee Ali

Talal Al-Johani, a high school student in Saudi Arabia, couldn't imagine going to college anywhere else but the United States. For the last two years, the 17-year-old has been collecting university applications and making connections with admission counselors in an effort to land at a leading American institution.

  Leery of unclear policies and a potentially hostile social environment under a Trump presidency, international students may now be reconsidering higher education in the United States — and that potential "brain drain" could take a hefty financial toll on America's education economy, international education experts say.

"I am concerned about how I'm going to be treated and how people will see me as a Muslim from Saudi," said Al-Johani, a student at Dhahran High School in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia. "I feel Trump has affected people's social attitudes, especially towards someone like me."

Last year, more than one million international students, a record number, came to America to pursue higher education — pumping $32.8 billion into the U.S. economy, according to the Association of International Educators (NAFSA).

But after American voters elected Donald Trump as president, Al-Johani is having second thoughts.

Read more: International College Students Leery of Trump Could Cost U.S. Billions - NBC News

Valls to run for president: 'I want to give everything for France'

French Prime Minister Manuel Valls formally announced Monday evening that he is running for the presidency in next year's election. Read FRANCE 24's live blog for all the reactions and analysis.

• Valls said he would "give everything for France" in a speech to supporters at the town hall in Evry, just south of Paris, where his political career began.
• The 54-year-old said he would stand down as prime minister on Tuesday to focus on the campaign.
• His widely expected announcement comes just a few days after unpopular President François Hollande said he would not seek a second term.
• It follows a conservative primary ballot in which François Fillon, a 62-year-old former prime minister, secured a resounding win to become the presidential candidate of the centre-right Les Républicains party.
• France’s presidential election takes place in two rounds next April and May.

read more: Valls to run for president: 'I want to give everything for France' -

War Criminals: Hospitals Cannot Be Targets in War - by Jason Cone

On April 27, a series of airstrikes hit Al Quds hospital in the embattled Syrian city of Aleppo, killing upwards of 50 people, including at least 29 women and children, and wounding scores more. The hospital—its emergency room, its intensive care unit, its operating theater, all of it—was destroyed. Doctors were among the dead as well, including one of the very few, if not the last, pediatrician in Aleppo.

Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) supported Al Quds hospital with supplies and funding to help its remarkably brave staff assist patients. The bombing was shocking news. But, like a painfully recurring nightmare, it was not surprising.

There have been far too many of these attacks in recent years, in far too many places. It seems obvious enough that people, even people at war, should not attack hospitals and kill medical workers and patients. And yet in Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, South Sudan and elsewhere, it happens over and over again—a man-made, and eminently avoidable, epidemic of death and destruction.

Read more, click here: Time Magazine

US Economy: Trump Economic Plan Would Send U.S. Economy To Most Severe Recession Since Early 1980's - by Avi Tiomkin

Comparing Donald Trump to Ronald Reagan is wrong and misleading. The two eras are diametrically different in most respects. Rising budget deficits, interest rates and dollar will hit U.S. economy and financial markets hard.

Global economic slowdown is compounded as the zero-interest-rate driven expansive-monetary policy's effects dissipate, while the negative attributes of this policy grow more influential.

This is a process that both inflicts current damages on the global economy and gains momentum as it progresses. Vis-a-vis Asian currencies including China, the dollar is as strong as its 2009 levels, let alone Canada, Mexico, Europe and South America.

This will inexorably hurt U.S. exports, generate an increase in imports and will create deflationary pressures on the U.S. economy.

Read more: Trump Economic Plan Would Send U.S. Economy To Most Severe Recession Since Early 1980s

Weapons Industry: Global arms sales in 2015 reached €348 billion with US share €225.47 or 80% of total reports SIPRI

Global weapons industry sales reached  €348 billion in 2015

Arms sales went on a downward slide last year, falling by 0.6 percent compared to 2014, according to the latest analysis on the global arms industry by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

The trade had been experiencing a downward trend since 2011, but the reduction in arms sales last year showed that the pace of decline had slowed.

Despite the decrease, arms sales for the world's top 100 companies in 2015 reached $370.7 billion (348 billion euros), the think tank said in its study, indicating that the sinking numbers were no sign that the world was getting more peaceful.

"It [arms sales] has decreased, but it is still over a third higher than it used to be in the early 2000s," Aude Fleurant, director of the SIPRI arms and military expenditure program, told DW. "It is slowing down, possibly indicating a reversal of the trend since 2010. So it is difficult to say at this stage …

There are contradictory trends all over the world and it is difficult to identify a clear trend so far," she added.

US firms remain on top of the arms sales industry.

Companies based in the US dominated the arms business, with total sales amounting to $209.7 billion (€225.47 Billion) , or more than 80 percent of the total arms business in the world. Lockheed Martin maintained its position as the largest arms producer on the planet.

EU-Digest

EU: ECB caught in monetary policy maelstrom

The European Central Bank (ECB) has done everything in its power to fuel inflation and boost economic growth, but has had limited success. Now, risks and side effects are becoming more evident.

During the height of the euro crisis in the summer of 2012, European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi pledged he would save the euro "whatever it takes." His rhetoric abruptly quieted down financial speculation against several eurozone member states.

Thereafter, the ECB cut interest rates until its key refinancing rate hit zero percent this spring. In addition, commercial banks holding money with the ECB are being punished with a negative deposit rate. Moreover, the central bank supports struggling banks with emergency loans and free credit. After all, the ECB has launched a massive asset-buying program, also known as Quantitative Easing (QE) in the spring of 2015, meaning the bank acquires government and company debts at large scale, thus effectively printing and circulating more and more money.

Not surprisingly, Draghi appears happy with his extremely accomodative monetary policy. After all, inflation, credit volume and economic growth have all been on the rise in the eurozone, if only modestly. But take a closer look and it's hard to share Draghi's optimism. The return of inflation at very low levels - the last number was 0.5 percent - can be primarily traced back to rebounding price of crude oil and groceries.

By contrast, eurozone members fiscal policies have had precious little little effect on those mark-ups. The gush of newly-minted euros, instead, is keeping "zombie banks" and "zombi companies" artificially alive, as it fails to kickstart anemic growth in the euro currency area..

It isn't entirely speculative, therefore, that the ECB's monetary policy is part of the problem, not the solution. Deutsche Bank economist Stefan Schneider told DW that the willingness of eurozone governments to reform their economies has "markedly dropped after Draghi's whatever-it-takes announcement, especially in countries at the bloc's southern periphery" - a fact that has also been substantiated by OECD analyses, he adds.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has found that higher interest rates before the 2012 debt crisis, had forced governments of crisis states to implement more than half of OECD's recommended growth initiatives. Last year, however, this share dropped to below 20 percent. This shouldn't come as a surprise: Draghi's promise, in conjunction with the bond purchase program, has minimized the difference in interest rates between German sovereign debt and those of crisis-hit states in the south of Europe. Without psychological strains, it is doubtful that politicians will go through with unpopular reforms when there is no fiscal pressure.

Read more: ECB caught in monetary policy maelstrom | NRS-Import | DW.COM | 02.12.2016

Saudis Brace for Bankruptcy, Bring Dramatic Measures to Public Sector

A two-year drop in oil prices has inflicted a dramatic blow to the economy of one of the world’s richest countries. If no changes are made, Saudi Arabia, according to some Saudi experts, will go bankrupt in three to four years.

Since 90 percent of the kingdom's income is derived from oil exports, the price drop, from over $110 per barrel in mid 2014 to a low of just over $30 recently, is a disaster, as national monetary reserves are depleted at a  breathtaking rate.

In 2015, Saudi foreign reserves were estimated at $654.5 billion, after the Saudi monetary agency lost almost $73 billion following the oil price drop, according to a 2015 Al Jazeera report. The monetary agency also withdrew some $70 billion managed by overseas financial institutions, and the state budget deficit that year was estimated at $98 billion.

This year's budget deficit is expected to be only slightly smaller. Riyadh, in an unprecedented move, offered its first international bond sale last week, worth $17.5 billion, to bring in additional much-needed cash.

Read more{ Saudis Brace for Bankruptcy, Bring Dramatic Measures to Public Sect

Russia sets out its policy on terrorism, nuclear war & global ties in new Foreign Policy Concept

President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree approving Russia's new Foreign Policy Concept.

The document specifies Moscow's position on key global issues, highlighting its relations with the US, EU, China and other countries.

Published on Thursday, the concept is now in force, replacing the previous one from 2013. Moscow's "views on core principles, priority directions, aims and tasks of the Russian foreign policy" are stated in the document of almost 40 pages.

Putin: We won’t allow infringement of Russia’s rights, will decide our own fate Saying that Russia pursues an independent foreign policy based both on national interests and respect for international law, the concept states that Moscow's policy is "open, foreseeable" and "shaped by centuries" of Russia's historic role in the development of global civilization.

"Russia is fully aware of its special responsibility for maintaining security in the world both on global and regional levels, and is aimed at cooperative actions with all concerned states in the interest to solve common issues," the document says.

Moscow calls for "creation of a broad international anti-terrorist coalition, firmly based on a legal framework, and effective and systematic cooperation among states," the document says. No "double standards" should have a place in such a coalition, which should become the main force to fight global terrorism.

Read more: Russia sets out its policy on terrorism, nuclear war & global ties in new Foreign Policy Concept — RT News

In Scotland, Trump Built a Wall. Then He Sent Residents the Bill - K. Bennhold

President-elect Donald J. Trump has already built a wall — not on the border with Mexico, but on the border of his exclusive golf course in northeastern Scotland, blocking the sea view of local residents who refused to sell their homes.

And then he sent them the bill.

David and Moira Milne had already been threatened with legal action by Mr. Trump’s lawyers, who claimed a corner of their garage belonged to him, when they came home from work one day to find his staff building a fence around their garden. Two rows of grown trees went up next, blocking the view. Their water and electricity lines were temporarily cut. And then a bill for about $3,500 arrived in the mail, which, Mr. Milne said, went straight into the trash.

Read more: In Scotland, Trump Built a Wall. Then He Sent Residents the Bill. - The New York Times