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| To be or not to be? |
Proponents
of an exit criticize the union for taking too much power away from
member nations and for issuing unnecessary and excessive regulations.
This, the argument goes, has hurt Britain’s economy. But the data does
not back that up. It is far from clear that leaving would lead to faster
growth and better living standards. In fact, it could have the opposite
effect.
If
E.U. regulations were as onerous as British critics say, those rules
would hurt all 28 member countries. Yet the economies of other members
like Germany, the Netherlands and Ireland have been more productive than
Britain. Those countries had a gross domestic product per hour worked that was nearly the same as the United States in 2014, while Britain’s comparable figure was much lower, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
If
Britain left the E.U. it would have to replace the union’s rules with
its own regulations in areas like the environment, banking and social
services. It is improbable that when it came down to specific rules, the
British public would want the risks that come with a more laissez-faire
approach. In some areas like policies to reduce greenhouse gases,
British regulations are already tougher than those of the E.U.,
according to an analysis by Open Europe, a London-based research group.
Supporters
of an exit argue that Britain would be able to maintain an open market
with the union, its biggest trading partner. But that seems like wishful
thinking. The E.U. would have no obligation to continue giving Britain
tariff-free access to its market without securing big concessions in
return. For example, Norway, which is not a member, pays the E.U. a fee and abides by most of its regulations to get access to its market.
As
far as trading with the rest of the world, Britain would most likely be
worse off on its own. The European Union has trade agreements with
countries that account for 60 percent of Britain’s trade, according to
Open Europe.
Britain would probably have to negotiate new pacts with
those countries, and the terms would very likely be less favorable than
those secured by the E.U. The union, after all, is the world’s largest
economy with a G.D.P. of $18.5 trillion in 2014; Britain’s
G.D.P. was $3 trillion. For the United States, which is negotiating a
trade agreement with the E.U., a pact with Britain would no doubt be a
lower priority.
Read more: Leaving the E.U. Would Hurt Britain’s Economy - The New York Times
