European Economy France: Warm weather hits consumer spending in France

Consumer spending in France fell by the highest amount in nearly two years in November – partly due to the unusually warm weather according to reports.

But there was little sign that the Paris terrorist attacks had put people off making purchases.

Official data said consumer spending fell by 1.1 percent last month compared to October; economists had expected a slight increase.

The French statistics agency INSEE blamed a fall of around five percent overall in energy consumption and sales of new clothes.

Read more: Warm weather hits consumer spending in France | euronews, economy

Weapons Industry: ISIS weapons sourced from Russia, China, US and EU

 Weapons and arms from dozens of countries including Russia, China and the US have fallen into the hands of Islamic State militants who in turn have used them to kill, terrorise and attack.

A damning report by human rights group Amnesty International has found Islamic State atrocities have been fuelled by decades of reckless arms trading — and it’s partly the west’s fault.

In its report released today, Taking Stock: The arming of Islamic State, Amnesty reveal lax controls and decades of a poorly regulated arms trade are to blame for the terror group acquiring a huge and deadly arsenal of weapons.

Amnesty said widespread corruption within successive Iraqi governments had also given Islamic State unprecedented access to firepower.

The terror group have used these weapons to commit gross war crimes in both Syria and Iraq and also to take control over areas across Syria and Iraq.

The report draws on expert analysis of thousands of verified videos and images and details how IS fighters are using arms, mainly looted from Iraqi military stocks, which were manufactured and designed in more than two dozen countries, including EU states.

Other weapons have been acquired during battle, through illicit trade as well as through defection of fighters across Syria and Iraq.

Patrick Wilcken, Researcher on Arms Control, Security Trade and Human Rights at Amnesty International said the vast and varied weaponry being used by militants was “a textbook case of how reckless arms trading fuels atrocities on a massive scale.”

Note EU-Digest: the solution is simple: but the implementation is nearly impossible. National governments in cooperation with the UN must register all local and international arms dealers and trace their sales and whenever possible prosecute them.The least National Governments can do is to make the life of weapons dealers more difficult .It proves once again, given the actual facts, how hypocritical governments are when it comes to curbing their profitable weapons industry.

Read more: ISIS weapons sourced from Russia, China, US and EU

Toward Global Disaster: Chaos and Intervention in the Middle East - by Richard Falk

There are many disturbing signs that the West is creating conditions in the Middle East and Asia that could produce a wider war, most likely a new Cold War, containing, as well, menacing risks of World War III. The reckless confrontation with Russia along its borders, reinforced by provocative weapons deployments in several NATO countries and the promotion of governing regimes hostile to Russia in such countries as Ukraine and Georgia seems to exhibit Cold War nostalgia, and is certainly not the way to preserve peace.

Add to this the increasingly belligerent approach recently taken by the United States naval officers and defense officials to China with respect to island disputes and navigational rights in the South China Seas. Such posturing has all the ingredients needed for intensifying international conflict, giving a militarist signature to Obama’s ‘pivot to Asia.’

These developments are happening during the supposedly conflict averse Obama presidency. Looking ahead to new leadership, even the most optimistic scenario that brings Hilary Clinton to the White House is sure to make these pre-war drum beats even louder. From a more detached perspective it is fair to observe that Obama seems rather peace-oriented only because American political leaders and the Beltway/media mainstream have become so accustomed to relying on military solutions whether successful or not, whether dangerous and wasteful or not, that is, only by comparison with more hawkish alternatives.

The current paranoid political atmosphere in the United States is a further relevant concern, calling for police state governmental authority at home, increased weapons budgets, and the continuing militarization of policing and law enforcement. Such moves encourage an even more militaristic approach to foreign challenges that seem aimed at American and Israeli interests by ISIS, Iran, and China. Where this kind of war-mongering will lead is unknowable, but what is frighteningly clear is that this dangerous geopolitical bravado is likely to become even more strident as the 2016 campaign unfolds to choose the next American president.

Already Donald Trump, the clear Republican frontrunner, has seemed to commit the United States to a struggle against all of Islam by his foolish effort to insist that every Muslim is terrorist suspect Islam as a potential terrorist who should be so treated. Even Samuel Huntington were he still alive might not welcome such an advocate of ‘the clash of civilizations’!

Read more: Toward Global Disaster: Chaos and Intervention in the Middle East

OilPrice Intelligence Report: Outlook For Oil In 2016 Still Grim

As we head into the holidays, there may be a shortage of holiday cheer for energy companies and their investors. Here’s hoping to a much improved New Year!

Oil prices saw no relief since last week, with the surprise jump in the active rig count in the United States weighing on the market. Baker Hughes reported an increase of 17 for oil rigs (offset by a decline in the gas rig count), a bearish signal that suggests that some drillers feel they can still make money drilling despite rock bottom oil prices. To be sure, there is a lag time between oil prices and the rig count figures, and the metric is not a perfect measure of market conditions. But the increase caught the markets by surprise, sending oil prices down to 11-year lows, surpassing the low points logged during the depths of the financial crisis in 2009.

There are few reasons to be bullish right now, although most market watchers still target late 2016 as the period in which things start to turn around. "We view the oversupply as continuing well into next year before rebalancing in the fourth quarter 2016," Goldman Sachs said in recent report. "Our base case remains that the global oil stock build will on aggregate remain shy of storage capacity, although the storage buffer has once again narrowed." Mild temperatures continue to suppress demand across the United States for natural gas and liquid fuels, which could ultimately result in a much smaller drawdown during winter heating season than is typical.

Of course, oil prices staying below $40 per barrel is extremely negative for oil and gas producers. With hedges rolling off, 2016 is shaping up to be a very painful year for the entire sector. S&P recently warned that financial stress in the energy industry will likely rise as we head into the New Year. “Hedges represent 8% (1.619 MMboe/d) of total expected oil and gas production in 2016, a marked decline from the 15% hedged last year,” S&P said this month. “The trend continues for speculative-grade companies, which have just 29% (1.437 MMboe/d) of total oil and gas production hedged next year compared with 45% in 2015.”

The economic damage inflicted upon oil-producing countries has also been well documented and closely watched. Nigeria is one such country. The West African OPEC member has seen its budget decimated by low oil prices, and the government has come under increasing pressure to devalue its currency, the naira, because of the weakening economy and shrinking foreign exchange. Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari has held out, projecting confidence that Nigeria can maintain the peg. However, he recently opened the door to a potential devaluation in January.

Buhari said that the central bank could introduce “some flexibility” that would encourage some capital inflows. Nigeria has suffered from a shortage of dollars, which has made some economic transactions difficult in the country. A devaluation would logically address this problem. “I am aware of the problems many Nigerians currently have in accessing foreign exchange for their various purposes,” the president said. “These are clearly due to the current inadequacies in the supply of foreign exchange. We are carefully assessing our exchange-rate regime, keeping in mind our willingness to attract foreign investors, but at the same time managing and controlling inflation to a level that won’t harm average Nigerians.”

Weakening currencies is a problem throughout the oil-producing world, with significant declines exhibited in South America, Africa, the Middle East and Eurasia. Countries with flexible exchange rates have seen their currencies plunge over the past year while countries with fixed exchange rates are coming under extreme pressure to abandon their pegs and devalue. Nigeria’s naira peg could be next on the firing line, but it surely will not be the last.

Another bearish black swan event looming over the oil markets is latent Libyan oil capacity. Rival factions in Libya have carved up the country and kept the North African oil producer from exporting to its full potential. Libya’s oil output has been down around 400,000 barrels per day for the past year or two, while its Qaddafi-era capacity stood at 1.6 million barrels per day. However, the rival governments in Libya have started the peace process, and signed an UN-brokered accord last week. It is unclear whether the peace deal will hold, but if violence and instability begins to abate, Libya could start to bring some oil production back to international markets. The exact amount is unclear, but if, say, 500,000 barrels were brought back online sometime in 2016, that would be extremely negative for oil prices. That would essentially offset the expected declines from U.S. shale next year. 

2015 Business Year Review: tracking the global recovery

even years after the crisis began, the global economy has taken decisive steps out of the dark. Just as the collapse hit countries in different ways, the way out has not been the same for everyone. Some countries have made it in high gear, others have been slowly working up through low ones.

But the process is well underway and in this programme we track the recovery with our own correspondents to see how connected the global economy is, and what to expect in 2016.

We start in the country that is now leading the recovery – the United States. The world’s largest economy made its way through the crisis and is now in a period of growth that is hopefully solid enough to stand the higher interest rates recently announced by the Federal Reserve.

That’s not the case in Europe yet. The recovery here is way behind. Eurozone countries don’t always share their advances, but they do share the problems.

We look at the economic fairy-tale in Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, that’s been damaged by the country’s leading company. We check out the situation in Spain – one of the fastest growing in the block, where the data always look way better in the summer – and examine Greece, where the holiday season was really hot, though not relaxing.

After Europe, we go to Asia, where China became a ticking bomb when Beijing tried to slow down growth.

And finally we analyse parts of the Arab world where the recovery has been hit not only by lower oil prices, but also by terrorism that has taken a high toll on tourism and the wider economy.
 
Read more: Business Year Review: tracking the global recovery | euronews, world news

Financial Industry: how Iceland deals with "too big to fail" banks :" we shouldn’t lose the banks to the hands of fools”

If Bjarni Benediktsson, Finance Minister has his way, Icelanders will receive kr 30,000 after their government has ownership of the bank. Íslandsbanki will be the second largest bank, of three, under Statero prietorship.

Benediktsson stated, “I am saying that the government take [sic] some decided portion, 5%, and simply hand it over to the people of this country.”

Since the government is under the control of Icelanders, they own the banks.  Bjarni believes that their economy will be fueled by foreign capital that will be brought into the country, which still remains the only European nation that has fully recovered from the 2008 crisis. Iceland was even able to pay its outstanding debt to the IMF before its due date.

Budget Committee vice chairperson, Guðlaugur Þór Þórðarson, explained that this move will ease the lifting of capital controls, even though he’s not entirely sure that State ownership is the ideal solution.

Steingrímur J. Sigfússon, former Finance Minister, agrees with Þórðarson stating in a radio show, “we shouldn’t lose the banks to the hands of fools” and that a shift in focus to separate “commercial banking from investment banking” would benefit Iceland.

Read more: First They Jailed the Bankers, Now Every Icelander to Be Paid in Bank SaleREALfarmacy.com | Healthy News and Information

Moving Into a Chinese-Indian World - by Martin Hutchinson

The IMF has allowed the Chinese renminbi to become part of its  Special Drawing Right from next October, the third largest after the dollar and the euro.

 China and India are both now growing much faster than the West. Their greater populations mean that their output will overwhelm the West’s well before 2100.

Their brutal realism about international economic relations, so similar to the attitudes of Britain in 1815 and the United States in 1915, will ensure their success.

Just as the 19th Century belonged to Britain and the 20th Century to the United States, so the 21st Century will belong to them – with no other obvious claimant to the 22nd.

More: Moving Into a Chinese-Indian World - The Globalist

The Netherlands: Dutch courts to judge Shell in landmark oil spill case - by Jan Hennop

A Dutch appeals court ruled Friday that four Nigerian farmers may take their case against oil giant Shell to a judge in the Netherlands, in a landmark ruling involving multinational corporate governance.

"The Dutch courts and this court consider it has jurisdiction in the case against Shell and its subsidiary in Nigeria," Judge Hans van der Klooster said at the appeals court in The Hague.

The four farmers and fishermen, backed by the Dutch branch of environmental group Friends of the Earth, first filed the case in 2008 against the Anglo-Dutch company in a court case thousands of kilometres (miles) from their homes.

They want Shell to clean up devastating oil spills in four heavily-polluted villages in the west African country's oil-rich Niger Delta, prevent further spills and pay compensation.

Read more: Dutch courts to judge Shell in landmark oil spill case - Yahoo News

EU Refugee crisis: 'Economic migrants',asylum seekers coming to EU for same reasons,report says - by Lizzie Dearden

Despite the British Government's efforts to distinguish between “genuine” refugees and economic migrants, a report has found that the motivations for both groups to risk their lives in desperate attempts to reach Europe are often very similar.

The Overseas Development Institute (ODI) , a UK-based independent think tank urged European leaders to develop a broader understanding of what causes people to migrate in order to respond to the current crisis.

Its Why People Move report said: “The evidence reveals that the asylum-seekers and economic migrants often have similar reasons for choosing to make the dangerous journey to Europe and one person may fall into both of these categories at the same time.

Read more: Refugee crisis: 'Economic migrants' and asylum seekers are coming to Europe for the same reasons, report says | Europe | News | The Independent

IMF: French court orders IMF chief Lagarde to face trial over 'Tapie affair'

A French court has ordered International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Christine Lagarde to face trial over her role in the payment of some €400 million ($434 million) to French tycoon Bernard Tapie, legal sources said Thursday.

Read more: france 24 - French court orders IMF chief Lagarde to face trial over 'Tapie affair' - France 24

Global Economy: The global impact of the US interest rate rise - by Kamal Ahmed

When America stirs, the rest of the world takes notice.

Rising US interest rates could mean higher debt repayments for emerging market governments and businesses - as the amount owed is denominated in dollars.

And with higher interest rates in America, investment capital will be encouraged across the Atlantic and away from Asia in the hunt for better returns.

That could affect Europe as well.

On the upside, the stronger dollar which has followed the rise might be good for European and Asian economies as it means exports to America are cheaper.

Read More: The global impact of the US interest rate rise - BBC News

US Economy: Janet Yellen says rate hike reflects the Fed's confidence in the U.S. economy - by Jim Puzzanghera and Don Lee

In late 2008, with the unemployment rate soaring and a crippled financial system propped up by government bailouts, the Federal Reserve pushed its key short-term interest rate as close to zero as possible.

Now, exactly seven years after that unprecedented decision, central bank policymakers unanimously declared the economy strong enough to finally start inching the rate up again.

“The economic recovery has clearly come a long way, although it is not yet complete,” Fed Chairwoman Janet L. Yellen declared Wednesday.

But the much anticipated hike was both good and bad news for the U.S. economy.

It validated the strength of the slow-moving recovery from the Great Recession, which investors cheered.

The Dow Jones industrial average rallied after the announcement, closing up about 224
points.

Read more: Janet Yellen says rate hike reflects the Fed's confidence in the U.S. economy - LA Times

European deposit guarantee is priority to revive economy - says EU's Dijsselbloem

A plan to set up a euro zone insurance for bank deposits is the key priority of the European Union to boost the bloc's economy, top EU officials said on Tuesday, pushing for a deal that has been fiercely opposed by Germany.

A European-level guarantee for savers is seen by many as a necessary complement to existing national bank guarantee schemes, which in some countries may not be able to protect deposits up to 100,000 euros
 as EU rules require.

"I'm convinced that setting up and finishing the banking union will be more important for economic recovery than any other projects at the moment," the head of the euro zone finance ministers, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, told EU lawmakers in a hearing at the European Parliament in Strasbourg.

Read more:b European deposit guarantee is priority to revive economy - EU's Dijsselbloem | Reuters

Taxation Policies: Curbing Tax Avoidance, Tax Evasion And Tax Havens

The aggressive tax avoidance by multinational corporations (MNCs) where they are now paying virtually no tax was highlighted recently by the takeover of “Irish” company Allergan by Pfizer in a blatant tax-avoidance move.

Such tax avoidance by these companies is facilitated by sovereign nations in their “tax wars” between each other, vying for foreign investment.

They are ceding billions in taxes to multinational corporations while beggaring their own exchequers.

Governments have woken up to these tax losses; progress is being made, but much more needs to be done.

Figures released from the OECD confirm that corporate tax revenues have been falling across OECD countries.

Read More: Curbing Tax Avoidance, Tax Evasion And Tax Havens

Politics and business: The U.S. Global Business Community Must Speak Against Trump - by Philip Bowring

s a westerner long based in Asia, I am astonished at the silence – so far as I am aware – of U.S. corporate interests overseas, collective and individual, in the face of Donald Trump’s remarks about Muslims.

There is a very simple issue here. The very suggestion that Muslims should be barred from entering the United States can only cause Muslims worldwide to ask themselves: Why should we buy goods and services from a nation which so despises us?

Why should we welcome Americans whether as investors, tourists or traders if we are to be thus treated?

It is not good enough for the U.S. business community to shrug its shoulders and imply that Trump is full of publicity-seeking rhetoric and is making proposals that can never come to pass.

It is not good enough to laugh off Trump’s statements as of scant relevance, political theater at the early stage of the Republican selection battle, let alone the campaign for the presidency itself.

Read more: The U.S. Global Business Community Must Speak Against Trump - The Globalist

EU Economy: Nobel Laureate Sees ‘Much Worse’ EU Economy From Refugee Crisis - by Johan Carlstrom

 Europe’s economic prospects are worsening as the region struggles to absorb the wave of asylum seekers coming from the Middle East, according to Angus Deaton, the winner of this year’s Nobel economics prize.

Though Europe’s debt and migrant crises are similar in scope, the demographic challenges posed by the sudden influx of people is potentially worse because “no one really has any idea how to solve” the situation,

Deaton said. At least with the debt crisis, “people knew how to solve it,” they just “couldn’t agree with each other,” he said.

Read more; Nobel Laureate Sees ‘Much Worse’ EU Economy From Refugee Crisis - Bloomberg Business

France: COP21 climate change summit reaches deal in Paris

A deal to attempt to limit the rise in global temperatures to less than 2C has been agreed at the climate change summit in Paris after two weeks of negotiations.

The pact is the first to commit all countries to cut carbon emissions.

The agreement is partly legally binding and partly voluntary.

Earlier, key blocs, including the G77 group of developing countries, and nations such as China and India said they supported the proposals.

President of the UN climate conference of parties (COP) and French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said: "I now invite the COP to adopt the decision entitled Paris Agreement outlined in the document.

"Looking out to the room I see that the reaction is positive, I see no objections. The Paris agreement is adopted."

Read More: COP21 climate change summit reaches deal in Paris - BBC News

EU: Social enterprise: a new business model for Europe

This week Business Planet looks at the concept of social enterprise – sustainable, innovative entrepreneurial answers to society’s challenges.

It’s fast becoming a real new business model in Europe today.

Loïc Van Cutsem is the General Manager of Oksigen, a company that believes society’s most pressing issues need to be tackled using an entrepreneurial approach that simultaneously creates social and economic value.

To see video click here: Social enterprise: a new business model for Europe | euronews, business planet

Climate Conference Paris: COP21: Hopes rise as EU forms alliance to push for deal - by Matt McGrath

The European Union has formed an alliance with 79 African, Caribbean and Pacific countries in a final push for agreement at the climate summit COP21.

The new alliance has agreed a common position on some of the most divisive aspects of the proposed deal.

They say the Paris agreement must be legally binding, inclusive and fair - and be reviewed every 5 years.

The EU will pay 475 million euros to support climate action in the partner countries up to 2020.

Read more: COP21: Hopes rise as EU forms alliance to push for deal - BBC News

Europe goes green: Waste no more: EU’s Circular Economy package - by Dan Alexe

With what is going on in Europe and around, one would not think that garbage and waste are major priorities, in spite of the hype surrounding the Paris mega-conference on climate change.

“A major political package, reinventing European economy.” The two major super-Commissioners, EU Commission’s First Vice-President Frans Timmermans and Jyrki Katainen Vice-President of the EC in charge of Jobs, Growth, Investment and Competitiveness were not shy of being dithyrambic today in presenting the new EU Circular Economy package.

I came one year late, but it is more ambitious than the previous draft, assured Frans Timmermans. More realistic, he later corrected during a press conference, for some targets are lower in the new package. Thus, the waste and incineration laws in the new package, which call for 65 % recycling target for municipal waste and allow a 10 % landfill quota – a weakening of the 2014 targets which called for a 70 % municipal waste target and a complete ban on landfill waste.

“We need to go circular in the way in which we grow and consume”, said Frans Timmermans. “You can compare circular economy to globalisation”, added Jyrki Katainen.

According to the Commission, the proposed actions will contribute to “closing the loop” of product lifecycles through greater recycling and re-use, and bring benefits for both the environment and the economy. The plans will extract the maximum value and use from all raw materials, products and waste, fostering energy savings and reducing Green House Gas emissions. The proposals cover the full lifecycle: from production and consumption to waste management and the market for secondary raw materials.

This transition will be supported financially by ESIF funding, €650 million from Horizon 2020 (the EU funding programme for research and innovation), €5.5 billion from structural funds for waste management, and investments in the circular economy at national level.

Read more: Waste no more: EU’s Circular Economy package

France: French Regional Elections: Everything you need to know

France is staging regional elections on Sunday December 6, with second round run-offs, where necessary, on December 13
.

The elections are the first major test of France’s unpopular president Francois Hollande since last month’s Paris terror attacks.
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While support for Mr Hollande has made a spectacular recovery since the attacks, polls point to a strong showing by the far-right Front National, leading to fears that Europe’s many crises - terror, migration, single currency - is fuelling a rise of the far Right.

Read more: French Regional Elections: Everything you need to know - Telegraph