Showing posts with label Trump Tariffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trump Tariffs. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 20, 2019
Sunday, August 5, 2018
EU economic growth forecast reduced as a result of Trump tariffs
The European Commission on Thursday cut its forecasts for the
eurozone's economic growth this year, citing among the top causes for
its revision trade tensions with the United States, as well as rising
oil prices, which are expected to push the bloc's inflation higher.
The slowdown of the eurozone economy is set to affect all major economies of the bloc, but is expected to hit Italy harder, as the country is forecast to record the lowest growth rate in Europe, matched only by Britain among all 28 EU countries.
The EU executive estimated the 19-country eurozone will grow by 2.1 percent this year, lower than the 2.3 percent gross domestic product (GDP) increase it had forecast in its previous estimates released in May, and below the 2.4 percent growth recorded last year.
In 2019, the bloc's growth should slow to 2.0 percent, unchanged from the previous forecast.
But what do these forecasts — and changes in forecasts — actually mean?
To get a sense of how forecasts can differ from actual results, see the charts. The first shows how GDP actually changed (light blue) and how it was forecast by the Commission to change (blue-and-black hatched bars) in 2017 compared to the previous year. The second chart, further below, compares actual and forecast changes in the consumer price inflation for 2017 compared to 2016.
The take-home message here is that the forecasts the Commission is currently making about next year's GDP or inflation numbers will likewise prove, in retrospect, to be wrong. Nonetheless, the forecasts are useful as a snapshot of Commission economists' perceptions of current trends, reflected in available economic data as these are processed in their economic models.
Read more: EU economic growth forecast reduced | Business| Economy and finance news from a German perspective | DW | 12.07.2018
The slowdown of the eurozone economy is set to affect all major economies of the bloc, but is expected to hit Italy harder, as the country is forecast to record the lowest growth rate in Europe, matched only by Britain among all 28 EU countries.
The EU executive estimated the 19-country eurozone will grow by 2.1 percent this year, lower than the 2.3 percent gross domestic product (GDP) increase it had forecast in its previous estimates released in May, and below the 2.4 percent growth recorded last year.
In 2019, the bloc's growth should slow to 2.0 percent, unchanged from the previous forecast.
But what do these forecasts — and changes in forecasts — actually mean?
To get a sense of how forecasts can differ from actual results, see the charts. The first shows how GDP actually changed (light blue) and how it was forecast by the Commission to change (blue-and-black hatched bars) in 2017 compared to the previous year. The second chart, further below, compares actual and forecast changes in the consumer price inflation for 2017 compared to 2016.
The take-home message here is that the forecasts the Commission is currently making about next year's GDP or inflation numbers will likewise prove, in retrospect, to be wrong. Nonetheless, the forecasts are useful as a snapshot of Commission economists' perceptions of current trends, reflected in available economic data as these are processed in their economic models.
Read more: EU economic growth forecast reduced | Business| Economy and finance news from a German perspective | DW | 12.07.2018
Monday, July 23, 2018
EU-US relations: Trump Ready To Impose Tariffs on EU Auto Imports
Trump: U.S. ready to ‘do something’ about EU auto imports
Read full report at:
Monday, July 9, 2018
Italy: Trump Tariffs - Italy retaliates, as Italy says it won't buy any more F-35's from the US
Italy says it won't buy more F-35 fighter jets, and may even cut its current order
Read more at:
Tuesday, July 3, 2018
China - US relations: Trade War Kicks off this week
China says "fully prepared" if trade war kicks off this week
For the complete report go to:
Monday, June 25, 2018
EU and China meet and discuss ways of dealing with Trump’s tough trade tariffs
China and the European Union are seeking ways to confront US
President
Donald Trump’s belligerence on trade during a high-level dialogue today
Monday, June 24th, in addition to settling their differences on
investment restrictions.
Read more: EU and China to meet and discuss ways of dealing with Trump’s tough trade tariffs | South China Morning Post
“The elephant in the room is Trump and his view
on the global trade order. This issue will eclipse everything else,”
said Jan Weidenfeld, analyst of Europe-China relations at the Mercator
Institute for China Studies. “Both sides are under pressure to avoid a
public spat, which would dilute their ability to signal to the Americans
that they’re not happy.
“We are there – we are having a very frank
conversation now, and we would be having a much franker discussion if we
didn’t have all the trouble with the US administration.”
“China and Europe are facing the common challenge of US actions in trade
and multilateral institutions, which gives them more room to
cooperate,” said Cui Hongjian, director of the Department for European
Studies at the China Institute of International Studies.
Read more: EU and China to meet and discuss ways of dealing with Trump’s tough trade tariffs | South China Morning Post
Friday, June 22, 2018
EU-US Relations: Trump Tariffs: Europe hits back at Trump's tariffs as global tensions mount
The EU, the world's largest trading bloc, imposed levies on 2.8 billion euros (S$4.4 billion) of American products in response to US duties on its steel and aluminum exports that were justified on national security grounds.
"We did everything we could to avoid this situation, but now we have no choice but to respond,'' said EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom. "It is frankly ridiculous that EU steel is considered a threat to US national security. As longstanding allies of the US, we were disappointed, but not surprised.''
The European reaction opens up another front in Washington's battle to reshape its commercial relationship with the world. President Donald Trump has levies on US$250 billion of Chinese goods in the pipeline and already placed duties on products from allies including Canada, Mexico and Japan..
Note EU-Digest: Maybe the time has come for Europe to start playing some "hardball" with Trump, and suggest to him it will stop buying military equipment from the US, that it wants to review NATO antiquated policies, its global strategies, and the need for European nations to participate, and pay for controversial US controlled missions around the world. Most of which have resulted in failure, and a large influx of refugees into the EU and Turkey.
Read more: Europe hits back at Trump's tariffs as global tensions mount, Government & Economy - THE BUSINESS TIMES
Thursday, June 21, 2018
USA -Trump Tariffs: Escalation of trade tensions as India now imposes retaliatory tariffs on US
India imposes retaliatory tariffs, escalating U.S. trade tensions
Read more at :
Friday, June 15, 2018
China-US relations: Escalating U.S.-China trade spat comes at a bad time for global growth, economist says - by William Watts
The escalating trade spat between the U.S. and China comes at an inconvenient time for the global economy.
The resilience of China’s economy in early 2018 has been an important buffer for global growth in the face of mounting headwinds, noted Louis Kujis, head of Asia economics for Oxford Economics, in a Friday note.
But the economy is showing signs of a broad slowdown after downbeat May economic data, which Kujis expects to continue, braking growth from a pace of 6.8% year-over-year in the first quarter to 6.2% by the fourth quarter.
China’s economy was set to slow without the trade dispute and policy makers were already less likely to respond with the type of stimulus they have implemented in the past to the benefit of the domestic and global economy. The rising trade tensions only amplify the prospects of a slowdown, albeit at the margins.
“While the economic impact of the U.S. tariffs and ensuing retaliation by China will be modest, it does matter,” Kujis wrote. Assuming broadly one-for-one retaliation, Oxford Economics’s economic model suggests the trade actions will shave 0.1 to 0.2 percentage point off growth in 2018 and 2019 for both countries, he said, noting that the impact has already been incorporated into the firm’s forecasts.
Read more: Escalating U.S.-China trade spat comes at a bad time for global growth, economist says - MarketWatch
The resilience of China’s economy in early 2018 has been an important buffer for global growth in the face of mounting headwinds, noted Louis Kujis, head of Asia economics for Oxford Economics, in a Friday note.
But the economy is showing signs of a broad slowdown after downbeat May economic data, which Kujis expects to continue, braking growth from a pace of 6.8% year-over-year in the first quarter to 6.2% by the fourth quarter.
China’s economy was set to slow without the trade dispute and policy makers were already less likely to respond with the type of stimulus they have implemented in the past to the benefit of the domestic and global economy. The rising trade tensions only amplify the prospects of a slowdown, albeit at the margins.
“While the economic impact of the U.S. tariffs and ensuing retaliation by China will be modest, it does matter,” Kujis wrote. Assuming broadly one-for-one retaliation, Oxford Economics’s economic model suggests the trade actions will shave 0.1 to 0.2 percentage point off growth in 2018 and 2019 for both countries, he said, noting that the impact has already been incorporated into the firm’s forecasts.
Read more: Escalating U.S.-China trade spat comes at a bad time for global growth, economist says - MarketWatch
Wednesday, June 13, 2018
EU-US Relations - Trade Tariffs: Maine will be among hardest-hit states if EU retaliates against Trump's tariffs - by Steve Collins
 | ||||
| Augusta, ME's State capital, also ranked by WalletHub as one of America's saddest cities |
The report found that 9.5 percent of Maine’s exports to Europe would be slapped with retaliatory tariffs if the Trump administration declines to grant an exemption to EU countries exporting metal to the U.S. The state average was roughly 3 percent of exports.
The proposed new tariffs against American products would affect about $39 million worth of Maine exports to the EU, Brookings found, out of a total of $405 million last year
.
The Europeans are considering possible tariffs on everything from cranberries to T-shirts. It’s not clear from the report exactly what Maine industries might take a hit.
It also isn’t certain whether the administration will offer exemptions for European steel and aluminum. If it refuses, the EU has said it will impose new tariffs on American products in response, a first step in what could become a trade war.
The impact of higher prices on
American products might be fewer export sales of targeted U.S. goods
such as rear-view mirrors, sweet corn and whiskey.
U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, a Maine Republican, is skeptical about the tariffs sought by Trump.
“I share the president’s belief that there have been many poorly negotiated trade agreements that have harmed manufacturing jobs in Maine and across our country,” she said in a prepared statement recently. “In the northern half of our state in particular, we have seen many pulp and paper mills close within the last five years, putting thousands of Mainers out of work through no fault of their own.”
“Addressing unfair trade practices, however, requires a careful approach in order to avoid triggering retaliation from other countries,” Collins said. “These tariffs could very well produce the opposite effect of what the president is trying to achieve, inadvertently causing further harm to American jobs and increasing the prices of consumer goods.”
She urged Trump “to work with Congress and our allies to address anti-competitive behaviors in order to protect our manufacturing industry and promote economic growth.”
Brookings is a century-old policy research think tank in the nation’s capital that issues studies on many issues facing the nation.
“I share the president’s belief that there have been many poorly negotiated trade agreements that have harmed manufacturing jobs in Maine and across our country,” she said in a prepared statement recently. “In the northern half of our state in particular, we have seen many pulp and paper mills close within the last five years, putting thousands of Mainers out of work through no fault of their own.”
“Addressing unfair trade practices, however, requires a careful approach in order to avoid triggering retaliation from other countries,” Collins said. “These tariffs could very well produce the opposite effect of what the president is trying to achieve, inadvertently causing further harm to American jobs and increasing the prices of consumer goods.”
She urged Trump “to work with Congress and our allies to address anti-competitive behaviors in order to protect our manufacturing industry and promote economic growth.”
Brookings is a century-old policy research think tank in the nation’s capital that issues studies on many issues facing the nation.
Tuesday, May 1, 2018
US Trump Tariffs: Germany expects permanent US tariffs exemption
Germany expects “a permanent exemption” rather than a temporary respite from US steel and aluminum tariffs for the EU. “Neither the European Union nor the United States can have an interest in an escalation (in tensions) in trade relations,”
a spokeswoman for Chancellor Angela Merkel said. I
In March US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs of 25 percent on steel imports and 10 percent on aluminum. However, the decision was taken to delay the imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs on EU and others, including Canada and Mexico until June 1, as confirmed by the White House on Monday.
Trump had also reached agreements for permanent exemptions for Argentina, Australia and Brazil.
Read more: Germany expects permanent US tariffs exemption — RT Newsline
In March US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs of 25 percent on steel imports and 10 percent on aluminum. However, the decision was taken to delay the imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs on EU and others, including Canada and Mexico until June 1, as confirmed by the White House on Monday.
Trump had also reached agreements for permanent exemptions for Argentina, Australia and Brazil.
Read more: Germany expects permanent US tariffs exemption — RT Newsline
Monday, April 16, 2018
EU-USA Relations: EU drags US to WTO over steel, aluminum tariffs
 |
| EU-US Relations turn sour |
The move comes despite US President Donald Trump temporarily exempting the 28-nation bloc from the tariffs that have threatened to trigger a trade war.
The EU made following statement in reference to their WTO complaint
- The EU rejects the "national security" justification for the US tariffs and believes they have been imposed just to protect US industry.
- It wants to hold consultations with the US as soon as possible.
- The aim of the discussions would be to "exchange views and seek clarification regarding the proposed measures."
Read more: EU drags US to WTO over steel, aluminum tariffs | News | DW | 16.04.2018
Tuesday, March 20, 2018
Trump Tariffs: China reacts to Trump's tariffs by vowing to open its markets further - Simon Denyer - by Simon Denyer
China responded to the threat of new tariffs from the United States
by vowing Tuesday to further open its own markets to foreign trade and
investment, while warning that a trade war between the two nations would
hurt both sides.
President Trump is preparing to impose a package of $60 billion in annual tariffs against Chinese products, a move that he says will punish China for intellectual property theft and create more U.S. jobs, administration officials say. He is determined to bring down the U.S. trade deficit with China, which reached $375 billion last year.
But China’s premier, Li Keqiang, said the issue should be solved through dialogue and negotiation.
“No one will emerge a winner from a trade war,” Li told a news conference at the conclusion of China’s annual parliamentary session. “What we hope is for us to act rationally instead of being led by emotions.”
Read more: China reacts to Trump's tariffs by vowing to open its markets further - The Washington Post
President Trump is preparing to impose a package of $60 billion in annual tariffs against Chinese products, a move that he says will punish China for intellectual property theft and create more U.S. jobs, administration officials say. He is determined to bring down the U.S. trade deficit with China, which reached $375 billion last year.
But China’s premier, Li Keqiang, said the issue should be solved through dialogue and negotiation.
“No one will emerge a winner from a trade war,” Li told a news conference at the conclusion of China’s annual parliamentary session. “What we hope is for us to act rationally instead of being led by emotions.”
Read more: China reacts to Trump's tariffs by vowing to open its markets further - The Washington Post
Friday, March 9, 2018
Trump Tariffa: EU insists on US tariffs exemption - by Eric Maurice
The EU is trying to be exempted from tariffs on steel and aluminum to be
imposed by US president Donald Trump and avoid a trade war between
close allies.
"Europe is certainly not a threat to American internal security, so we expect to be excluded," EU trade commissioner Cecilia Malmstroem said in Brussels in Friday.
She insisted that "nobody has an interest of escalating this situation."
Malmstroem will meet US trade representative Robert Lighthizer on Saturday, along with Japan's trade minister Hiroshige Seko.
She will argue that EU companies are not state-subsidised nor in overcapacity, and that therefore they are not a source of "unfair trade" with the US.
She will also insist that US tariffs fail to address the main problem on the global steel market: China's overcapacity by state-owned companies.
"We agree on the problems, not on the remedy," said an EU official on Friday, insisting that tariffs are "a prescription for the wrong illness".
"Overcapacities will be on the agenda" of Saturday's meeting, European Commission vice president Jyrki Katainen confirmed. ??He warned however that the dispute will not be solved on Saturday.
"Tomorrow's meeting is a meeting, not the meeting," he said, adding that "most probably the discussion will continue."
He added that the EU was still preparing to impose counter-measures, including tariffs on US products.
"We are hoping we are not forced to use them," he said, but warned that "if the worst case scenario happens, we are ready to take the US to the WTO [World Trade Organization] court."
Read more: EU insists on US tariffs exemption
"Europe is certainly not a threat to American internal security, so we expect to be excluded," EU trade commissioner Cecilia Malmstroem said in Brussels in Friday.
She insisted that "nobody has an interest of escalating this situation."
Malmstroem will meet US trade representative Robert Lighthizer on Saturday, along with Japan's trade minister Hiroshige Seko.
She will argue that EU companies are not state-subsidised nor in overcapacity, and that therefore they are not a source of "unfair trade" with the US.
She will also insist that US tariffs fail to address the main problem on the global steel market: China's overcapacity by state-owned companies.
"We agree on the problems, not on the remedy," said an EU official on Friday, insisting that tariffs are "a prescription for the wrong illness".
"Overcapacities will be on the agenda" of Saturday's meeting, European Commission vice president Jyrki Katainen confirmed. ??He warned however that the dispute will not be solved on Saturday.
"Tomorrow's meeting is a meeting, not the meeting," he said, adding that "most probably the discussion will continue."
He added that the EU was still preparing to impose counter-measures, including tariffs on US products.
"We are hoping we are not forced to use them," he said, but warned that "if the worst case scenario happens, we are ready to take the US to the WTO [World Trade Organization] court."
Read more: EU insists on US tariffs exemption
Wednesday, March 7, 2018
Tariff Wars: E.U. goes on war footing in response to Trumps declaration "that trade wars are good and easy to win" - by RM
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| "The reincarnation of US Voodoo Economics" |
- Total US investment in the EU is three times higher than in all of Asia.
- EU investment in the US is around eight times the amount of EU investment in India and China together.
- EU and US investments are the real driver of the transatlantic relationship, contributing to growth and jobs on both sides of the Atlantic. It is estimated that a third of the trade across the Atlantic actually consists of intra-company transfers.
- The transatlantic relationship also defines the shape of the global economy as a whole. Either the EU or the US is the largest trade and investment partner for almost all other countries in the global economy.
- The EU and the US economies account together for about half the entire world GDP and for nearly a third of world trade flows.
The European Union’s top trade official mentioned cranberries, orange juice and peanut butter as possible targets Wednesday as the E.U. prepares to strike back if President Trump follows through with tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum.
European officials are also preparing to target $3.5 billion in American goods through a 25 percent "tit-for-tat" levy across consumer, agricultural and steel imports, Bloomberg reported, citing a list compiled by the European Commission.
This came after EC President Jean-Claude Junker on Friday mentioned targeted products like Harley-Davidson (HOG) motorcycles, Levi's jeans and bourbon if the U.S. tariffs are implemented. Canada President Justin Trudeau called Mr. Trump Monday evening to register his "serious concer".
"Retaliation against US by trading partners is likely," Goldman Sachs (GS) economists wrote in a note. "In the past, retaliatory tariffs have focused on the product in dispute (in this case steel and/or aluminum), consumer goods with a particular focus on luxury items and agriculture. We expect a similar pattern this time."
While retaliation is likely to come in tariff form, "more subtle changes to tax and regulatory policies targeting U.S. companies could also follow," the economists wrote.
Ford (F) and GM (GM) could feel a pinch of about $1 billion each, or 12 percent and 7 percent of each company's respective operating income for 2017, if the 25 percent steel tariff is implemented and prices rise at a similar rate, Goldman Sachs analysts estimated in a recentseparate report.
U.S.-based machinery companies would get squeezed as costs increase. Well-known brands with good distribution, like Deere (DE) and Caterpillar (CAT) might do better than Terex (TEX) and Oshkosh (OSK), Goldman said. Oshkosh is based in House Speaker Paul Ryan's home state of Wisconsin.
E.U. Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom also took aim at Trump’s assertion that U.S. national security justified plans to impose tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum.
The U.S. measures “would mainly impact traditional allies of the United States,” she said.
E.U. officials had previously flagged Kentucky bourbon, Harley-Davidson motorcycles and Levi’s jeans among the products they have in their sights for retaliatory tariffs. A draft of European countermeasures published by Bloomberg News targets $3.5 billion in annual imports from the United States, including $1.1 billion in U.S. steel products, along with clothing, makeup, motorcycles, boats, corn, rice, beans and other agricultural products.
E.U. countries exported $6.2 billion worth of steel to the United States in 2016, according to E.U. figures. The E.U. is the top trading partner of the United States in goods, and it is the top U.S. export market.The European Union’s top trade official mentioned cranberries, orange juice and peanut butter as possible targets Wednesday as the E.U. prepares to strike back if President Trump follows through with tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum.
Note EU-Digest 2017 : See list below of U.S. trade in goods with European Union
Please note that: All figures are in millions of U.S. dollars on a nominal basis, not seasonally adjusted unless otherwise specified. Details may not equal totals due to rounding. Table reflects only those months for which there was trade.
| Month | Exports | Imports | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 2017 | 21,290.3 | 32,828.8 | -11,538.5 |
| February 2017 | 22,994.8 | 32,386.5 | -9,391.7 |
| March 2017 | 25,691.5 | 36,881.1 | -11,189.6 |
| April 2017 | 22,960.2 | 35,498.7 | -12,538.5 |
| May 2017 | 23,732.0 | 36,488.1 | -12,756.1 |
| June 2017 | 23,768.1 | 36,237.8 | -12,469.7 |
| July 2017 | 21,438.3 | 34,892.7 | -13,454.5 |
| August 2017 | 23,383.6 | 35,772.4 | -12,388.8 |
| September 2017 | 24,277.9 | 35,702.6 | -11,424.7 |
| October 2017 | 25,689.3 | 39,411.6 | -13,722.3 |
| November 2017 | 23,528.5 | 38,256.8 | -14,728.3 |
| December 2017 | 24,762.9 | 40,575.7 | -15,812.8 |
| TOTAL 2017 | 283,517.4 | 434,933.1 | -151,415.6 |
Given the low average tariffs (under 3%), the key to unlocking this potential lies in the tackling of non-tariff barriers. These consist mainly of customs procedures and behind the border regulatory restrictions
.
The non-tariff barriers come from diverging regulatory systems (standards definitions notably), but also other non-tariff measures, such as those related to certain aspects of security or consumer protection.
The tariffs statement by President Trump, if he persists to follow through on his threat, could eventually also turn into a total trade war between the EU and US, and mean the end of the Atlantic Alliance, which has brought stability, peace and prosperity to Europe and the US, since the end of the second world war.
It must not be allowed to happen.
EU-Digest The above article can be republished only if EU-Digest is referred to as its source
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