EU-British Relations after Brexit: Toward a Privileged EU-UK Partnership - by Joschka Fischer

Following Boris Johnson’s landslide victory in the United Kingdom’s
general election this month, Britain is now on track to leave the
European Union on January 31, 2020. Johnson has a clear parliamentary
majority with which to secure a deal for an orderly exit from the bloc.
Although the UK and the EU now face long and difficult negotiations to
establish a mutually beneficial trade arrangement, Brexit itself is now a
certainty.

What will this mean for Europe? The UK is the EU’s second-largest
national economy, one of only two European nuclear powers, and a
permanent, veto-wielding member of the United Nations Security Council
(alongside France). The country has always been vitally important to
Europe, both culturally and historically. Whenever Europe’s liberty and
security have been at stake, Britain has reliably come to its defense.

After a great deal of pain and confusion, the Brexit decision is now
effectively behind us. Looking ahead, both sides will have to find ways
to cooperate more closely, particularly when it comes to shaping a joint
security and foreign policy. China and Russia’s geopolitical positions
have not changed because of Brexit, nor has the threat of terrorism
diminished. The collective challenges posed by migration, climate
change, and many other issues will remain, and it will be up to both the
EU and the UK to manage them effectively.

Read more: Toward a Privileged EU-UK Partnership by Joschka Fischer - Project Syndicate

EU-Russia trade bouncing back - "Russia is not the EU's enemy, despite US rhetoric to the contrary"

Russia is not an enemy of the EU, to the contrary

The EU-Observer reports that after three years in decline due to sanctions, EU-Russia trade relations have picked up 20 percent so far in 2017;

In September, the EU Parliament published a report confirming that this decline continued in 2016 and this news was also reported by EUobserver.

However, the trend has changed in 2017.

Eurostat data from the first seven months of the year shows that this decline has stopped and, in fact, the trend was reversed with an expected increase of 20 percent by the end of the year compared to 2016.

EU-Russia trade was up to €285 billion in 2014. In 2016, this number dropped to €181 billion. In only three years, EU members imported €64 billion less from Russia and exported to it €31 billion less.

This decline affected Germany, Italy, Austria and Lithuania above all, which constitute €14.5 billion less in export towards Russia.

However, Austria, Ireland and Lithuania are the three members that suffered the most in relative terms with declines in export of 51, 50 and 40 percent respectively in two years only. Interestingly,

Luxembourg is the only country that increased its exports to Russia from 2014 to 2016.

The average decline for EU members was 34 percent in import and 29 percent in export with Russia.

The trend was reversed starting in January 2016 when trade with most of EU member states started to recover.

This is evident if we look at data for the half-year period. When we compare the first six months of 2016 with the same period of 2017, we notice that the volume of EU-Russia trade increased by €27 billion. The lion's share is for Germany with an expansion by €6 billion and the Netherlands with €4 billion. The only country that reduced its trade is Malta with a decrease of €400,000.

If we look at the exports only in the first six months of 2017 compared to last year, then the leading countries are Germany (plus €2.6 billion), Italy (plus €739 million) and the Netherlands (plus €707 million). The only countries decreasing their exports are Malta, Cyprus and the United Kingdom.

The behaviour of trading partners may be an indication that the Crimea crisis has been discounted already and that politics will, slowly, adjust.

One of the signals was the critical stand of some EU members to the recent round of secondary sanctions imposed by US Congress on Russia, which could create problems for companies involved in the construction of Nord Stream II.

While it is hard to predict the direction of trade flows in the future, we can state that the positive trend seems to lead towards a normalisation of EU-Russia trade in the coming future despite the unresolved crises in Crimea, Ukraine and US meddling in the EU-Russia relations..

EU-Digest

German-US Relations: Donald Trump and Angela Merkel "make nice" - sort of .....

Trump : considers EU non-existent 

If the cancellation of their previously planned meeting due to severe weather in Washington could be perceived as a fitting symbol for Chancellor Merkel's and President Trump's earlier relationship - frosty, if not icy - then today's weather in the US capital - sunny, but crisp - might have served as a sign that the two are trying to move beyond past grievances.

And their public statements during the highly anticipated press conference only underscored the palpable wish to restart the personal relationship between both leaders, after Trump's vicious comments about Merkel during the election campaign and to restore the traditionally close partnership between both countries, which has been in question ever since Trump took office.

It was, of course, up to Trump try to reset the relationship with Merkel and to reaffirm the commitments to transatlantic ties, and at first glance, he did.

But below the surface, things were not as smooth as it seemed. That is because on some crucial issues, including trade and the EU, Merkel and Trump took a very different tack. But that is not entirely accurate since Trump - in a noteworthy and unusual move for a US president - did not even mention the European Union once in his remarks.

"Trump made no reference whatsoever to the European Union, either in general terms or, more pointedly, on the specific issue of trade relations," said Anderson. "The closest he came to acknowledging the EU was when he stated that the US would respect 'historic institutions,' but then added that there needed to be balance and fairness in the relationship to the US." 

Merkel, meanwhile, "spoke from an entirely different - and actually much more grounded and accurate - perspective, answering in effect that the EU negotiates trade deals with member state input and that the principle of mutual benefit in EU trade deals is well established," said Jeffry Anderson, who directs Georgetown University's Center for German and European Studies.

"So on trade, which had not been discussed at that point in the visit, the two leaders seemed to be speaking past one another, which will not be a reassuring message for Germany or for Europe," Anderson added.

That impression was shared by presidential rhetoric scholar Farnsworth.

"The news conference suggested that these two leaders have little in common, other than a desire to avoid exchanging harsh words in public," he said. "Mainly they talked past each other." 

Having made some boilerplate statements about the importance of German-American ties, but really having spoken past one another on a substantial level may sound like a harsh verdict for a meeting between a German Chancellor and an American president.

But given Merkel and Trump's past and their very different political and personal backgrounds as well as the fact that this was their first ever face-to-face encounter it may have been all that could have been reasonably expected at this point.

Read more: Donald Trump and Angela Merkel make nice - sort of | Americas | DW.COM | 17.03.2017

EU-Canada relations: In counter to Trump, Trudeau says EU and Canada must lead the world economy - by Dan Alexe

Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau addressed the European Parliament in Strasbourg, marking the adoption by MEPs of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between Canada and the European Union.

“Make no mistake about it, this is an important moment,” he said.

Trudeau said the whole world benefited from a strong European Union and that the bloc and his country needed to lead the international economy in challenging times.

With the passage of their trade deal, Canada and the European Union offer a counter to Trump, who has withdrawn from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and wants to rework the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Trudeau told the European Parliament that the Union was an unprecedented model for peaceful cooperation in a speech that marked his distance from both the United States under new President Donald Trump, who has questioned the value and future of the bloc, and from Britain, which has voted to leave it.

On Wednesday the European Parliament approved CETA, with 58 % of members voting to adopt the deal.

The final vote saw most of the members representing Europe’s centrist parties voting in favour, with opposition from members representing left-leaning socialist and Green as well as right-wing, nationalist parties.

Of the 695 members present in the 751-seat legislature, 408 voted in favor, 254 against and 33 abstained.

For Canada the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) is important to reduce its reliance on the neighboring United States as an export market.

For the EU, it is a first trade pact with a G7 country and a success to hail after months of protests at a time when the bloc’s credibility has taken a beating from Britain’s vote last June to leave.

Trudeau will next travel to Berlin, where he will meet with German President Joachim Gauck and Chancellor Angela Merkel. 

Read more: In counter to Trump, Trudeau says EU and Canada must lead the world economy

Cuba-USA: A new chapter in Cuba -US relations: History happening again right before our eyes - by RM

Viva Cuba - Viva USA

History is  happening right before our eyes - Cuba-USA: March 21, 2016 . The first day of Spring and also signalling a new beginning in a long-rime historic and often turbulent relationship between the USA and Cuba,

For me personally it brings back many memories, going back to when I was a kid visiting Havana, Cuba in 1957, with my parents ( two years before the Castro Revolution) - on the way from La Guaira, Venezuela to Le Havre, France.

Cuba-USA  -A new Chapter -Raoul Castro and Barack Obama -  

Cuba at that time was a US backed "Republic" ruled by Fulgenca Batista, a ruthless dictator with close links to the US Mafia. He ruled Cuba with an iron hand, while the mob controlled all the night-life, prostitution and other criminal activities. 

The "real economy" of Cuba at that time was mainly in the hands of US multi- nationals, as was over 50 % of the sugar industry, 

The US multi-national communications giant of that time, ITT,, controlled all the communication systems on the Island. 

Fast Forward to 1980 - working for a multi-national aluminum corporation based in Pittsburgh, I was assigned to organize a "strategy planning" meeting for our Caribbean External Relations Managers. We chose the beautiful Florida Island of Key-West to hold the meeting.

Again history happened right before our eyes, when we literally saw from the hotel we were staying in Key West how droves of Cuban refugees started arriving on Key West shores - this eventually became known as the Mariel Boat Lift. 

And here today we are again in Florida, April 21,2016, watching live scenes form Cuba, with Raoul Castro and Barack Obama starting a new chapter in the Cuban US relationship - we can only hope that Cuba and the US will have learned from their past mistakes, and that greed will not, once again, become the driving force of this relationship.  

Viva Cuba, Viva USA !

 
EU-Digeswt