The stock market’s Friday fall spells trouble for President Donald Trump’s re-election hopes.
The “Presidential Predictor,” popularized by Sam Stovall, CFRA’s chief investment strategist, tracks the S&P 500 index’s SPX, -1.21% presidential election-year performance from July 31 to Oct. 31. Going back to 1944, it’s found that a positive move over that period usually corresponds to a presidential victory by the incumbent party, while a negative move signals a loss (see chart by clicking on link below).
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The stock market's 'presidential predictor' is forecasting a Biden victory - MarketWatch
