In this blog written for IMF Country Focus, the IMF’s mission brief
for the Netherlands, Alfredo Cuevas, explains that this economic
integration could signal a slower recovery for the country from the
crisis.
The GDP growth forecasts for the Netherlands issued by the IMF in its April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) surprised many, not only for the large negative 2020 number itself, but for it being weaker than some other leading European economies. Let me make some general considerations about orecasting amid today’s immense uncertainties, and then look at the Dutch
economy.
Economists often conceptualize macroeconomic variables, such as real GDP growth, as the sum of a predictable or systematic component and an unpredictable shock. We develop and estimate statistical models of the predictable part and use them to make forecasts.
Read more at:
Connectedness of the Dutch Economy Leads to Lower GDP Growth Forecast
The GDP growth forecasts for the Netherlands issued by the IMF in its April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) surprised many, not only for the large negative 2020 number itself, but for it being weaker than some other leading European economies. Let me make some general considerations about orecasting amid today’s immense uncertainties, and then look at the Dutch
economy.
Economists often conceptualize macroeconomic variables, such as real GDP growth, as the sum of a predictable or systematic component and an unpredictable shock. We develop and estimate statistical models of the predictable part and use them to make forecasts.
Read more at:
Connectedness of the Dutch Economy Leads to Lower GDP Growth Forecast
