As President Trump prepares to deliver
his second State of the Union address, the leaders of the United
States’ closest allies in Europe are filled with anxiety
.
They
are unsure of whom to talk to in Washington. They can’t tell whether
Trump considers them friends or foes. They dig through his Twitter feed
for indications of whether the president intends to wreck the European
Union and NATO or merely hobble the continent’s core institutions.
Officials
say Trump, by design or indifference, has already badly weakened the
foundation of the transatlantic relationship that American presidents
have nurtured for seven decades. As Sigmar Gabriel, a former German
foreign minister, put it: “He has done damage that the Soviets would
have dreamt of.”
European leaders worry that
the next two years could bring even more instability, as Trump feels
emboldened, and they are filled with fear at the prospect that Trump
could be reelected. The situation has left the continent facing a
strategic paradox no one has managed to crack.
“We can’t live with Trump,” Gabriel said. “And we can’t live without the United States.”
In more than two dozen interviews in London, Paris and Berlin — the
three European capitals at the heart of the Western alliance —
government officials, former officials and independent analysts
described a partnership with Washington that, while still working
smoothly at some levels, has become deeply dysfunctional at others.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, British Prime
Minister Theresa May and French President Emmanuel Macron have tried
different strategies, but all have struggled to develop consistent and
reliable relationships with Trump. Lacking a better alternative, the
dominant European approach has been to wait him out and hope the damage
can be contained.
In all three capitals, there
is talk about somehow trying to go it alone, if necessary — to chart
Europe’s course. Merkel stated it as bluntly as anyone when she said in a
Munich beer hall that Europe must “take our destiny into our own
hands.”
That
was two years ago this spring, and since then, Europe has taken only
cautious steps in that direction — proposals for a European army being
one example. Despite modest increases in European defense spending, the
United States continues to account for over two-thirds of military
spending among NATO members. Europe struggles to keep big, multilateral
initiatives alive without American support.
European
officials continue to work as hard as ever to preserve relationships
with the president and the administration, despite fears and
frustrations.
“We manage,” said a senior
European politician, who like others in government spoke on the
condition of anonymity to freely discuss a sensitive relationship.
“Governing by tweets is not the same as governing by diplomatic
engagement. It’s a different process. But it’s something we accept and
adapt to. I don’t think that our surprise on a daily basis is any
greater than that of his own administration.”
Others,
often those who are no longer in government, express a less sanguine
view. They see a president ticking through his campaign promises and
notice uncomfortably that Europe is on the wrong end of many of them.
Littered among the wreckage, as seen by the
Europeans: an all-but-ruined Iran nuclear deal, tit-for-tat tariffs, a
global climate accord that is missing the world’s largest economy, a
possible arms race triggered by the cancellation of a key nuclear
treaty, and a unilateral retreat from Syria without even a courtesy call
to allies that work alongside U.S. forces.
More than any one issue, however, there is the sense that Trump and Europe are fundamentally at odds.
Note EU-Digest: Hopefully
the EU will be able to defend itself over the coming two years or less
against this loud-mouth, uncouth ego-maniac, spoiled bully, before he is
either locked-up, or impeached.
Read more: Europeans fear Trump may threaten not just the transatlantic bond, but the state of their union - The Washington Post
