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Thursday, April 26, 2018

US Economy: An American recession may come just in time for Trump’s re-election bid - by Rich Miller

Here’s another reason to circle the 2020 election year on the calendar. It may well be the year of the next U.S. recession.

Hefty tax cuts, stepped-up government spending and robust global growth should help insulate the economy against a downturn over the next two years, in spite of last week’s stock market swoon. That would allow the expansion that began in 2009 to become America’s longest ever.

But after that, watch out, economists warn. Fading fiscal stimulus, higher and rising interest rates, and cresting world demand could leave the economy vulnerable to a contraction — just in time for the presidential campaign.

“2020 is a real inflection point,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc., in West Chester, Pa.

It’s not only President Donald Trump who needs to worry after claiming his policies of deregulation, deficit-widening fiscal measures and trade protectionism will lift the world’s largest economy out of a decade of mediocre growth. Investors should fret, too. A recession — or more accurately, the anticipation of

Read more: An American recession may come just in time for Trump’s re-election bid | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette