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Saturday, July 30, 2016

US Presidential Elections: Five reasons Donald Trump could actually become president

There are just 100 days left until the US election 2016. After months of campaigning we now know that either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will succeed Barack Obama in the White House.

But could the unthinkable happen? Could a man who's promised to build a wall along the Mexican border, who has disparaged an entire religion and who uses childish insults against his political insults really win the election?

Could a man who tweets Thomas the Tank Engine memes really become president of the most powerful country on Earth?

Here are a few reasons why he might:
1. It's the economy, stupid

The phrase coined by Bill Clinton's 1992 election strategist is now equally important for his wife. As Politico reports, Hillary will be hoping for a strong economy in the months leading up to the election to convince floating voters that "Donald Trump’s version of a crippled America in rapid decline doesn’t really exist".

Sadly for her, a report this week showed that the economy had grown by a modest 1.2 per cent in the second quarter of the year - falling well short of the 2.6 per cent estimated on Wall Street.

It won't be so easy to make a case for continued Democrat control of the White House when the economy looks like this:

Read about all the reasons why: Five reasons Donald Trump could actually become president

Friday, July 29, 2016

Global Economy: Economic Recession in 2017 -

Next year, we will see a recession.

I’m calling it.

Why? Well … there are just too many events unfolding this year that will set the stage for a recession, including a corporate earnings recession, a growth-stunting Brexit vote and a U.S. presidential election unlike any we have ever experienced.

Any one of these events could be the direct catalyst for next year’s recession, or it could be one of the many other reasons not listed.

While I can’t predict the exact catalyst for the event, I do know that I’m not the only one expecting the worst.

In fact, according to a recent report, companies are preparing for a recession as well … and you should be doing the same.

In the latest durable goods advance estimate for June, orders tumbled 4% versus expectations of a 1.7% decline. Durable goods orders represent orders for products that last typically for at least three years, like appliances, office equipment, motor vehicles and turbines.

Earlier this month, I explained how declining durable goods orders mean that the Federal Reserve’s hands are tied, and that interest rates are not going higher by any meaningful degree for at least another decade.

This remains true, but you also have to be prepared for the inevitable — a recession.

Your takeaway here is simple: Prepare for a recession-like investment environment.

That means you want to own safe-haven stocks — think gold-related stocks, utilities or telecommunication companies, bonds and even some blue-chip stocks.

But the main thing you want to consider, if you haven’t already, is to find a strategy for profiting from declining stocks.

Depending on how you manage your money, this can be easy to do. If you are managing your own portfolio, a long-term put option on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE Arca: SPY) (expiration in 2018 would be ideal) is a simple way to profit from a recession and decline in stocks.

If, instead, you have an adviser who manages your portfolio, tell them you want more bearish exposure, assuming you have little at the moment. It’s your money, and they will listen and help you prepare for the imminent recession.

They should be able to put your investment in some simple bear funds that benefit from a market fall, or they might also consider buying an inverse ETF that returns the opposite of the underlying equity.
Just keep in mind that these positions are used as protection to hedge your portfolio from a crash.

The further we get into 2017 without the expected stock market crash, tilt your portfolio more and more to positions that will rise when the crash hits.

A crash is coming. It’s just a matter of when, not if.

Read more: conomic Recession in 2017 - ValueWalk

Thursday, July 28, 2016

Europe's Majority Backs Hillary A new Hillary demographic: Europe’s center right – by Ryan Heath

The prospect of a Donald Trump presidency and the new look of the Republican party he now leads is causing some center-right European parties to rethink their political allegiances.

The shift was evident in the stark contrast in attendance by European politicians at the Democratic convention here in Philadelphia and those who went to the Republican gathering last week:

In Cleveland only former UKIP leader Nigel Farage, Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders and a few members of the European Conservatives and Reformists group could be found. In Philadelphia, there were representatives from a range of political groups, including center-right politicians who typically would have been more at home at a Republican convention.

An opinion sampling of those politicians — from parties normally at each other throats in Brussels, from the Greens to the center-right Christian Democrats — found overwhelming support for Hillary Clinton to be the next president of the United States.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters Thursday in Berlin it was a “clear ‘no'” when asked if the prospect of a Trump presidency is giving her nightmares, but the feeling isn’t shared by ministers and MPs here in Philadelphia.

“Historically I have definitely more of a Republican, at least on the economic side, but there’s no way I could convince myself to support someone like Donald Trump,” said Belgian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander de Croo.

Read full report: A new Hillary demographic: Europe’s center right – POLITICO

Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Inequality: 10 US corporate welfare programs that will make your blood boil - by Tom Cahill

The next time you hear someone complain about how the poor get “all this free stuff,” show them this.

A small number of incredibly wealthy Americans are ridiculing Bernie Sanders’ base for wanting “free stuff” when the costliest programs are, by far, corporate welfare and entitlements for the top 1 percent. Fox News has been working hard to tear down Sanders’ proposals to provide Medicare for all, institute tuition-free public college, boost infrastructure spending, and expand Social Security.

“That’s not fiscally possible unless the federal government starts seizing private assets,” said Bill O’Reilly.

But O’Reilly is wrong. The money for Sanders’ platform can easily come from eliminating the costliest entitlement programs for the top 1 percent and multinational corporations. Here’s a breakdown of the most superfluous giveaways to the rich and how much they cost the rest of us:

1. Tax Breaks for obscene CEO bonuses ($7 billion/year)
Currently, the biggest corporations are exploiting a 20-year-old loophole that allows them to write off inflated compensation packages for CEOs, billing stock options, and performance-based bonuses to taxpayers. In 2010, the Economic Policy Institute found out that the biggest corporations cost Americans $7 billion by writing off inflated executive pay. Between 2007 and 2010, this loophole accounted for more than $30 billion in corporate welfare. According to The Guardian, fast food industry CEOs cost taxpayers $64 million through this loophole.

That $7 billion could singlehandedly fund the annual budget for the National Science Foundation — which, as I recently reported for US Uncut, funds 11,000 scientific research projects each year and has funded 26 Nobel laureates in the last 5 years.

2. Tax cuts for luxury corporate jets ($300 million/year)
Currently, corporations can claim a huge tax deduction every year by writing off purchases of corporate jets, lavish cars, and chauffeurs as “security” for their top executives. A Bloomberg analysis from 2011 showed that these tax breaks for some of the wealthiest Americans cost the rest of us $300 million each year. While that may not sound like much, that’s approximately 50 percent of the annual budget for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the brainchild of Elizabeth Warren that protects Americans from the financial sector’s most predatory schemes.

3. Big oil subsidies ($37.5 billion/year)
According to Oil Change International (OCI), the U.S. government spends anywhere between $10 billion and $52 billion per year on corporate welfare for the fossil fuel industry — one of the wealthiest industries in the world. OCI estimated that total combined subsidies to big oil approached $37.5 billion in 2014, which includes $21 billion on production and exploration subsidies.

These subsidies alone cost more than what we currently spend on providing rental assistance for low-income families. In 2013, the department of Housing and Urban Development allocated a total of $34.3 billion toward tenant-based rental assistance ($19 billion), project-based rental assistance ($8.7 billion), and general public housing programs ($6.6 billion). These programs helped 4.5 million families — half of whom are elderly — keep a roof over their head.

4. Pharmaceutical subsidies ($270 billion/year)
As US Uncut has previously reported, the pharmaceutical industry costs taxpayers roughly $270 billion a year when accounting for the cost we pay for life-saving drugs whose patents have been bought up by Big Pharma. This is over $1,914 per household in corporate welfare. This is partly due to the Medicare Part D bill that George W. Bush signed into law in 2003, which prevents Medicare from negotiating drug prices with pharmaceutical companies. But the biggest drug companies also make a pretty penny (a combined $711 billion in profits between 2003 and 2012) by buying patents for drugs that were largely developed with taxpayer-funded research, then jacking up the price by absurd amounts after cornering the market.

This $270 billion annual subsidy could be virtually eliminated by passing Bernie Sanders’ bill to establish a government fund that buys up drug patents as soon as they become available for purchase. Then, the government would sell drugs at-cost to save money for those who need them. The money saved could pay for the annual $270 billion in insurance costs from Obamacare that would help more Americans get access to healthcare.

5. Capital gains tax breaks ($51 billion/year)
When anyone makes money from selling off investments, the IRS classifies that as capital gains, which are taxed at a lower rate (20 percent as of 2012) than real, actual work (35 percent). Pew Research found that 53 percent of Americans own no stock at all, and out of the 47 percent who do, the richest 5 percent own two-thirds of that stock. And only 10 percent of Americans have pensions, so stock market gains or losses don’t affect the incomes of most retirees. The Century Foundation found that the total amount of lost revenue by taxing capital gains at a lower rate than wages cost $256 billion between fiscal years 2012 and 2016, or $51 billion a year over the last 5 years. According to the Tax Policy Center, if investment income was taxed at the same rate as wages, 75 percent of that new revenue would come from the richest 0.3 percent of Americans; 92 percent of that revenue would come from those making $200,000 or more per year. The chart below shows what percentage of income each tax bracket makes from capital gains — not surprisingly, the wealthiest Americans get most of the benefit from capital gains.

If we taxed wealth like work, the extra $51 billion per year in savings could fund two-thirds of the annual budget for food stamps.

6. Corporate tax subsidies from state and local governments ($80.4 billion/year)
In 2012, the New York Times did an analysis of every existing tax break in each of the 50 states and learned that 1,874 programs cost taxpayers $80.4 billion every year for corporate welfare in their state. Compare that cost with the cost of providing tuition-free public college to every student, which The Atlantic estimated would be a mere $62.6 billion. As the chart below shows, this is actually way cheaper than what we currently spend on federal student aid.

7. Handouts to Big Ag ($18 billion/year)
Crop insurance — a program originally intended to help farmers recover from the dust bowls of the 1930s — has become a slush fund for wealthy corporate farmers who have become experts at manipulating the system for their own means. As Bloomberg reported, the median income of commercial farm households (in which farming makes up more than 50 percent of a household’s income) was $84,649 in 2011 — 70 percent more than the average American household. Farmers have learned to exploit the program by growing crops on land they know will be unproductive, then making money from insurance claims rather than crops. In 2011, 26 farmers each got an annual subsidy of $1 million, including one tomato farmer in Florida who got a $1.9 million subsidy.

This $18 billion in corporate welfare is more than NASA’s annual budget, which has hovered around the $17 billion mark since 2009.

8. Welfare for Wall Street ($83 billion/year)
The biggest banks have grown even bigger than they were just before the 2008 financial meltdown. And due to their size, these banks are perceived as “too big to fail,” as their demise would spell doom for the US financial sector as a whole. So as these big banks grow bigger, the Federal Reserve allows them to borrow at lower interest rates than other big banks — essentially subsidizing the continued growth of the big banks. In 2013, Bloomberg estimated the ten biggest TBTF banks suck up $83 billion per year in corporate welfare.

If we were to force the big banks to borrow at the same interest rates as every other bank at a rate of $83 billion per year, that would be enough to double the current federal budgets for highway spending ($48.6 billion), Head Start ($10.1 billion), the Environmental Protection Agency ($7.89 billion), nutrition assistance for women, infants, and children ($6.2 billion), the National Parks Service ($3 billion), and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation ($2.39 billion), with $5 billion left over.

9. Export-Import bank subsidies ($112 billion)
This week, the House of Representatives voted to revive the Export-Import (Ex-Im) bank, which has been maligned as a slush fund for large, multinational corporations. In its most recent year, the Ex-Im bank had a $112 billion portfolio, of which $90 billion went to multinationals. If that wasn’t bad enough, a huge portion of that money went to just 10 wealthy corporations.

According to the New York Times, the federal government spends roughly $105 billion on public K-12 schools. If we allow the Ex-Im bank to fade away, the money formerly set aside for corporate subsidies could instead double that investment in public education.

10. Federal contracts for the top 200 biggest companies ($880 billion/year)
The biggest 200 corporations have an excessively unfair advantage over their competitors due to their influence in Washington. According to the Sunlight Foundation, the top 200 companies spent a combined $5.8 billion on lobbying Congress between 2007 and 2012. And in those same years, those companies received $4.4 trillion in federal contracts. That $4.4 trillion is $100 billion more than what the U.S. government spent on providing a basic income to the nation’s 50 million Social Security recipients.

The combined cost of these 10 corporate welfare programs is $1.539 trillion per year. The three main programs needy families depend upon — Temporary Assistance for Needy Families ($17.3 billion), food stamps ($74 billion), and the Earned Income Tax Credit ($67.2 billion) — cost just $158.5 billion in total. This means we spend ten times as much on corporate welfare and handouts to the top 1 percent than we do on welfare for working families struggling to make ends meet.

Read more: 10 corporate welfare programs that will make your blood boil

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

US Republican Convention Geert Wilders tells US he’s set to become next Dutch prime minister – by Cynthia Kroet

Geert Wilders, the leader of the Dutch far-right Freedom Party (PVV), said on Tuesday that he could become the next prime minister of the Netherlands.

Wilders, speaking at an event during the U.S. Republican Party Convention in Cleveland, said that his party has been gaining ground and has been “the number one party in the opinion polls” for the past year.

“If this becomes reality in the elections in March next year, I could become the next prime minister,” said Wilders, whose party is currently in the opposition in national parliament.

Read more: Geert Wilders tells US he’s set to become next Dutch prime minister – POLITICO

Monday, July 25, 2016

USA: Destiny Lost? Trump and a US Off Its Moorings - by Michael J. Brenner

Americans are struggling to draw into focus their exalted image of themselves and reality. They are not doing a very good job of it. The gap is wide and growing — and it is this very gap that Donald Trump seeks to exploit for his personal political gain.

Trump understands that Americans feel powerless in good measure because of what has been happening beyond the country’s shores, and over which the United States lacks the means to exercise decisive influence.

Our collective response has been one of avoidance and evasion. Why? Because We Americans seem to fear that if we stare at reality squarely, we will find reality staring back at us in a most discomforting way.

To a considerable extent, that is a consequence of our country’s foreign policy elites’ inclination to over-promise and under-deliver. Trump pinpoints that weakness most skillfully. The true irony of his act, however, is that he is bound to be the biggest over-promiser and under-deliverer ever.

Fading prowess is one of the most difficult things for humans to cope with – whether it be an individual or a nation. By nature, we prize our strength and competence. We dread decline and its intimations of extinction.

This is especially so in the United States where for many the individual and the collective are inseparable. Today, events are occurring that contradict the national narrative of a nation with a unique destiny. That creates cognitive dissonance.

Our thoughts and actions in response to that deeply unsettling reality conform to the classic behavioral pattern of those suffering from acute cognitive dissonance.

Denial is its cardinal feature. That is to say, denial of those things that cause stress and anxiety. Sublimation methods of various kinds are deployed to keep them below the threshold of conscious awareness.

We all do that, to some degree, on a personal level. Groups, even very large ones, can do it as well.

In the latter case, we are speaking of troublesome military actions, abusive state behavior like the conduct of torture, diplomatic deals that are permissive of unsavory actions by others, or studied misrepresentations by government and media which hide unpleasant truths from the populace.

At a more abstract level, we repress or minimize perceptions of us by other peoples, our relative well-being compared to other societies (medical care, maternity leave, pensions), or national competence as demonstrated by accomplishment in comparison with other societies (constructing mass transportation systems).

The crudest denial mechanism is literal avoidance. If you don’t travel abroad, you don’t see. You don’t inform yourself about any of the above mentioned matters by:

    abstaining from following the news,
    reading only reassuring reports,
    excluding all contradictory sources as “alien” or “subversive;”
    declaring the world as too complex to decipher;
    appraising serious issues of national policy as “above my pay grade,” while ignoring the core democratic precept that as the citizen of a republic, nothing is above your pay grade

Another avoidance mechanism is to stress systematically those features of other nations or situations that conform to the requirements of the American national narrative while neglecting or downplaying opposite features. 

Read more: Destiny Lost? Trump and a US Off Its Moorings - The Globalist

Sunday, July 24, 2016

Health Care - A Look Into The Crystal Ball - 2017 Editio

Regardless of the outcome of the November election, and by that I mean both the presidential and congressional elections, health care will once again be on the agenda.

At this point, the most likely scenario is a Clinton victory, a change in the Senate majority from GOP to Dem (though it could be very close) and a diminished, but still majority, GOP in the House. This scenario would set up an opportunity for some real progress on several nagging health care issues. To add to the analysis, there is an outside chance that the GOP could lose majority control of the House, but for this to happen, it would require an electoral landslide by Clinton preceded by a Trump implosion. No one is holding their breath on this but it is notable in that it is being discussed.

A Trump victory would obviously change the dynamic and the results of the Senate and House elections would be critical to what might happen. If Trump wins, it is probable that the GOP’s House majority would hold close to its current level with just a few losses, and the outcome of Senate control would be extraordinarily close. Some have even predicted a Trump win could result in a 50/50 split, resulting in the Vice President acting as the tiebreaker. Under this scenario, continued gridlock would be the result.

But under any scenario, neither party is likely to control all branches and chambers, and importantly, no one party will have the 60 votes necessary in the Senate to move any truly controversial legislation.

However, if an opportunity for progress emerges, it would be based less on the raw numbers and more on the message that voters send. The big unknown is will the newly elected and reelected actually hear the message or will they filter it through their own political lens and go forward with business as usual? Arguably, this is what they have done over the last several elections, going forward with their own personal agenda and ignoring what the voters want, which seems to be governance and compromise.

The most important person in a scenario of progress is Speaker Paul Ryan. While a strong conservative, it seems clear that Ryan wants to govern and legislate. He wants to address some of the big challenges facing the U.S. To do this under any scenario requires compromise. In our current political climate, compromise will require will and courage. So the question is does he have both and will he be willing to exercise them if he does?

Read complete report: Health Care - A Look Into The Crystal Ball - 2017 Edition

Saturday, July 23, 2016

USA: Republican Convention: Thiel: Fake Culture Wars Only Distract Us From Our Economic Decline - by Tim Hains

Paypal founder and Silicon Valley entrepreneur Peter Thiel spoke on the fourth night of the 2016 Republican National Convention.

"I am proud to be gay. I am proud to be a Republican. But most of all I am proud to be an American," he said. 

“I don’t pretend to agree with every plank in our party’s platform. But fake culture wars only distract us from our economic decline," he said. "When I was a kid, the great debate was about how to defeat the Soviet Union. And we won. Now we are told that the great debate is about who gets to use which bathroom. This is a distraction from our real problems. Who cares?"

"Instead of going to Mars, we invaded the Middle East," he said. "Donald Trump is right. It's time to end the era of stupid wars and rebuild our country."

Our economy is broken. If you're watching me right now, you understand this better than any politician in Washington. And you know this isn't the dream we looked forward to. Back when my parents came to America looking for that dream, they found it—right here in Cleveland.

They brought me here as a one-year-old, and this is where I became an American.

Opportunity was everywhere.

My Dad studied engineering at Case Western Reserve University, just down the road from where we are now. Because in 1968, the world's high tech capital wasn't just one city: all of America was high tech.

It's hard to remember this, but our government was once high tech, too. When I moved to Cleveland, defense research was laying the foundations for the Internet. The Apollo program was just about to put a man on the moon—and it was Neil Armstrong, from right here in Ohio.

The future felt limitless.

But today our government is broken. Our nuclear bases still use floppy disks. Our newest fighter jets can't even fly in the rain. And it would be kind to say the government's software works poorly, because much of the time it doesn't even work at all.

That is a staggering decline for the country that completed the Manhattan Project. We don't accept such incompetence in Silicon Valley, and we must not accept it from our government.

We don't need to see Hillary Clinton's deleted emails: her incompetence is in plain sight.

She pushed for a war in Libya, and today it's a training ground for ISIS. On this most important issue, Donald Trump is right. It's time to end the era of stupid wars and rebuild our country.

Read more: Thiel: Fake Culture Wars Only Distract Us From Our Economic Decline | Video | RealClearPolitics

Friday, July 22, 2016

Pollution: Driving Europe’s transition to a low-carbon economy - European Commission

The Commission recently presented a package of measures to accelerate the shift to low-carbon emissions in all sectors of the economy in Europe. The global low-carbon transition is already underway and gaining momentum, following the adoption of the first universal climate change agreement last December. The  proposal will help Member States prepare for the future and keep Europe competitive. It is part of the EU's strategy for a resilient Energy Union with a forward looking climate policy.

In 2014, EU leaders agreed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels across all sectors of the economy. Today's proposals present binding greenhouse gas emission targets for Member States from 2021-2030 for the transport, buildings, agriculture, waste and land use and forestry sectors. These national targets contribute to the overall EU target.

The new framework is based on the principles of fairness, solidarity, cost-effectiveness and environmental integrity. Member States will be at the forefront of deciding how to implement the measures to meet the agreed 2030 target.

The Commission also presented a strategy on low-emission mobility setting the course for the development of EU-wide measures on low and zero-emission vehicles and alternative low-emissions fuels.

EU Vice-President in charge of the Energy Union Maroš Šefčovič said: "The Energy Union is delivering. With the proposed reform of the Emissions Trading System last year and today's proposal on greenhouse gas emissions targets for Member States, we anchor the 2030 Energy and Climate framework in legislation. We are also setting our transport system firmly on the path towards zero-emissions. Today's package shows that we are mobilising all our policies towards the competitive, circular and low-carbon economy that we promised in the Energy Union Strategy".

Read more: Driving Europe’s transition to a low-carbon economy - European Commission

Thursday, July 21, 2016

China-G20 - US warns against devaluation ahead of G20 finance meeting

US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew on Thursday said top economies should refrain from competitive currency devaluations -- a message likely directed at China, which hosts a G20 finance ministers meeting this weekend.

"The global outlook... underscores our focus on the commitment made at the last G20 in Shanghai to consult closely with one another on exchange rate policy, and to refrain from competitive devaluation," Lew said during a visit to Athens.

Finance ministers and central bank chiefs from the so-called Group of 20, which brings together the biggest industrialised and emerging economies, are scheduled to meet in China on Saturday and Sunday.

"We have seen progress in this regard since the last G20 meeting, and we will continue to encourage the use of the full range of policy tools to promote shared, sustainable growth," he said.

Beijing rattled global investors with a surprise devaluation last August, when it guided the normally stable yuan down nearly five percent over a week, in a move largely perceived by analysts as an attempt to boost exports as economic growth slowed.

The talks this weekend will also likely be dominated by Britain's shock decision to leave the European Union in a referendum last month.

On Greece, which is hoping to exit recession this year after a seventh year of austerity cuts, Lew noted that investors were unlikely to return without "long-term clarity" on the prospects for the recovery of the Greek economy.

A failure to confront the subject of debt relief for Greece has clouded the perspectives for its economic recovery.

"The challenge is to get the trajectory onto a path where...it's clear that Greece can sustain its debt. To the investor world, the notion that it's okay now but it may not be okay in the future is not a good signal," the US secretary said.

Among the organisations managing Greece's recovery, the International Monetary Fund has said it won't give a penny to Greece's latest bailout -- the third since 2010 -- until it sees a concrete plan from the Europeans to substantially cut the country's massive debt burden.

Read more: Flash - US warns against devaluation ahead of G20 finance meeting - France 24

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

TTIP EU-US TRade: US seeking bilateral trade deal with UK to press EU on TTIP - by Patrick Wintour

A potentially swift bilateral trade and investment deal with the UK is being suggested by American officials as a way of pressing the European Union to speed up its own stalled transatlantic trade deal, as well as cementing a commitment to the UK-US economic relationship.

The news will be welcomed by the international trade secretary, Liam Fox, who has been charged with striking British trade deals to replace the EU’s deals with the rest of the world.

The UK cannot formally sign any trade deals with other countries or trading blocs until it has left the EU, but it appears to be accepted that negotiations on the outline shape of such deals can start before that happens.

During the EU referendum campaign Barack Obama, the US President, said the UK would have to go to the back of the queue for a trade deal with America if it left the EU, but in the wake of the vote US thinking seems to be changing. Fox is due to visit the US shortly.

Note EU-Digest: Hopefully the EU does not get bamboozled by the this game playing of the "Anglo Saxon team" and capitulate on their principals by approving this basically bad deal for the EU.

Read more: US seeking bilateral trade deal with UK to press EU on TTIP | US news | The Guardian

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Africa - EU-Trade: EAC-EU trade deal signing called off - by James Karuhanga

In a sudden twist, comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between the East African Community (EAC) and the European Union (EU) will not be signed as earlier planned.

Officials who spoke to The New Times over the weekend were non-committal on divulging details pertaining to the sudden change of heart that comes after Tanzania recently decided to halt signing, citing the “turmoil” that the EU is experiencing following Britain’s exit.

The agreement was due to be signed at a meeting in Nairobi, Kenya today.

The East African Business Council (EABC) has been advising partner states to sign the deal earlier than previously agreed as further delay, it argued, would hamper EAC exports to the EU.


“The signing has been called off so whatever issues are contentious should be brought to the table for renegotiation,” EABC chief executive Lilian Awinja said.

Emmanuel Hategeka, the permanent secretary at the Ministry of Trade and Industry, confirmed that both parties agreed to call off the signing.

The five partner states previously proposed that the signing ceremony be held in the first week of August.

Last month, however, the EABC recommended July 18 (today), as the date of signing to coincide with the visit of the EU Commissioner for Trade, who is expected in Nairobi for the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

Hategeka said: “Signing on July 18 on the margins of UNCTAD 14, has been called off by agreement between both parties. In my view, this will allow more time for consultations.”

The EABC expectations were that all EAC partner states’ ministers for trade would attend the conference and, therefore, sign the agreement on the same date to project the region as a functional Customs Union.

It was thought that the recommended July 18 signing would give partner states ample time to ratify the agreement before October 1, the deadline earlier set by the EU.

Failure to meet the EU deadline on ratification, it was noted, could see EAC exports to EU attract import duty, especially for Kenya, the region’s largest economy.

Read more: EAC-EU trade deal signing called off - The New Times | Rwanda

Monday, July 18, 2016

Turkey Set for Market Turmoil as Coup Turns Investors ‘Ice-Cold’ - by Constantine Courcoulas Courcoulas Tugce Ozsoy

Things were looking up for Turkey when investors went home on Friday afternoon.

Markets were rallying around the world on speculation global monetary policy was going to remain loose, there was a lull in the country’s fractiouspolitics and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’sgovernment was moving to normalize relations with Russia and Israel.

Now, after an attempted military coup that erupted at about 10 p.m. that evening in Ankara and Istanbul, sending the lira into its sharpest nosedive in about eight years, those investors are waking to a very different world, steeling themselves for tumultuous trading as local markets open on Monday.

The currency rebounded 2.2 percent to 2.9510 per dollar at 8:47 a.m. in Istanbul Monday, after closing last week at .0157 per dollar, about 2 percent away from a record low in September.

Read more: Turkey Set for Market Turmoil as Coup Turns Investors ‘Ice-Cold’ - Bloomberg

Sunday, July 17, 2016

Britain: London’s reaction to Brexit: “A bloody disaster… we’re second division now” - by Ryan Ramgobin

London voted overwhelmingly in favour of United Kingdom to remain a member of the European Union, with 59.9% of votes cast wanting to Remain.

Seven of the ten areas with the highest share of the Remain vote were in London, with Lambeth, Hackney and Haringey, polling over 75% to stay in the bloc.

The referendum result left swathes of London shocked and disappointed.

Several believe that immigration was misrepresented in the lead up to the referendum.

One woman was dismayed with the result: “We’re one of the countries that benefit from immigration.

I think that asylum seekers and refugees are a separate issue and why would you close the door on people who are in need?”

Another Remain voter believed Leave campaigning was “almost like propaganda.”

“You open up a newspaper… there’s a picture [with the caption] ‘coming soon to a greenfield near you’ and they have pictures of these Syrian refugees…”

Read more: London’s reaction to Brexit: “A bloody disaster… we’re second division now” | UK | News | The Independent

Saturday, July 16, 2016

Turkey coup: Chaos continues in Turkey Live updates - by Lauren Said-Moorhouse

After a night of explosions, gunfire and tanks rolling along the streets, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Turkey Saturday that an attempted military coup was over and the government was in charge.

However, the sounds of fighting were still being reported in Ankara and Istanbul after the chaotic attempt by members of the military to wrest control from Erdogan.

At least 90 people died and 1,000 people were injured and hundreds arrested across the country.

Read more: Turkey coup: Live updates - CNN.com

Friday, July 15, 2016

Terrorism: Terrorist groups need to be infiltrated and destroyed - cheaper than bombing and more effective

It is time to infiltrate terrorist organizations and destroy them
After the most recent terrorist attack in France, it seems their might also be an urgent need for a far more effective strategy than just the involvement of costly military operations.

First of all we should not label terrorists as good and bad ones - Daesh - Boko Haram, -PKK - Haqqani Network - Kataib Hezbolla - AL-Qaeda. They are all terrorist groups and should be labelled and treated as such.

Also for starters. Since just about every government in  the world is facing similar terrorist problems, cooperation and exchange of information between governments, in this respect, is not only important, but essential.

A "hot-line" for local citizens to call in every country, where they can confidentially report suspicious activities in their neighborhood certainly could be another effective tool to get a grip on these terrorist cells

In this context there should also be a financial reward system for people who can provide valuable information to the local authorities which leads to the arrest or elimination of terrorists.

Local government and the military should also develop training programs for individuals who can be used to infiltrate terrorist organizations via their recruitment programs and other means, to create internal chaos within terrorist organizations or destroy their chains of command.

Stopping terrorism can only happen when we are able to outsmart them.

© EU-Digest Editorial 


Wednesday, July 13, 2016

USA: Health-Care spending will continue to rise

Health spending in U.S. to rise 5.8 percent a year through 2025: CMS http://flip.it/r_lB2

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Real Estate: Great Property On Maine's East Coast Bordering Canada

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Monday, July 11, 2016

Farnborough Aircraft Sales: Airbus and Boeing close to $33 billion in orders at Farnborough Air Show

The 2016 Farnborough Air Show kicked off in grand fashion on Monday with Airbus and Boeing announcing deals valued at nearly $13 billion.
Virgin Atlantic Airbus A350-1000

In addition to the completed deals, several mega orders worth as much as $20 billion are rumored to be near completion.

Although there hasn't been a great amount of buzz coming out of North America and Europe, China's growing airlines arrived at the English air show with checkbooks in hand.

Chinese low-cost carrier Xiamen Airlines signed a memorandum of understanding for 30 Boeing 737 MAX 200 airliners.

The agreement isn't yet a firm order; however, should Xiamen convert the MOU into one, the deal carries a list price of $3.39 billion.

Xiamen, which currently operates more than 140 Boeing jets, plans to expand its fleet to more than 200 planes by the end of the decade, and Boeing hopes these 737 MAX 200s will play a role in that expansion.

The Xiamen deal was followed by an order from Donghai Airlines. Although the airline has traditionally been a cargo carrier since it launched in 2006, Donghai is set to expand its passenger operations. The upstart Chinese airline announced that it would buy 25 Boeing 737 MAX 8 and five 787-9 Dreamliners worth in excess of $4 billion at list prices.

The Xiamen deal was followed by an order from Donghai Airlines. Although the airline has traditionally been a cargo carrier since it launched in 2006, Donghai is set to expand its passenger operations. The upstart Chinese airline announced that it would buy 25 Boeing 737 MAX 8 and five 787-9 Dreamliners worth in excess of $4 billion at list prices.

Britain's Virgin Atlantic is the only European airline to announce a deal so far at Farnborough. The crown jewel in Richard Branson's transportation empire announced on Monday that it would acquire 12 Airbus A350-1000 airliners.

The state-of-the-art Airbus jets will be used to replace Virgin's aging fleet of Boeing 747-400 jumbo jets. Eight of the aircraft will be purchased directly from Airbus, while the final four will be acquired on long-term leases. The total value of the deal is expected to reach $4.3 billion at list prices.

Read more: Airbus and Boeing close to $33 billion in orders at Farnborough Air Show - Business Insider

Sunday, July 10, 2016

Financial Industry: Conflict of Interest? Goldman Sachs hires former EU chief Barroso

Goldman Sachs (GS.N) has hired former European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso to be an advisor and non-executive chairman of its international business, the U.S. bank said on Friday, as it grapples with the fallout from Britain’s exit from the European Union.

Barroso served as president of the commission, the EU’s executive arm, from 2004 to 2014 and was prime minister of Portugal from 2002 to 2004, Goldman said in a statement.

Goldman Sachs and other U.S. investment banks are seen as particularly vulnerable to Brexit since they rely on the EU’s “passporting” regime that allows them to offer services across the bloc while basing most of their staff and operations in the UK. Banks have warned that if their British outposts lose their “passports” they will have to move some employees and business units to alternative bases in the EU.

Goldman Sachs International, which Barroso will chair, is headquartered in London and of its roughly 6,000 staff fewer than 1,000 are based outside Britain.

Barroso is credited with helping the euro zone survive the 2009-13 debt crisis by establishing a financial rescue fund, enacting stricter budget rules and tightening financial regulation.

He was also a signatory to the Lisbon Treaty that revamped the bloc’s complex institutions after French and Dutch voters rejected a European constitution.

Barroso will help the firm as it advises clients on dealing with the ensuing “challenging and uncertain economic and market environment,” Goldman Sachs International co-chiefs Michael Sherwood and Richard Gnodde said in the statement.

The question which obviously immediately arises following Mr.Barroso's employment by the US financial giant Goldman Sachs is that of conflict of interest, given the stature former European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso had in the EU and, consequently, the confidential information available to him about EU member nations classified financial and economic data.  
 
Insure-Digest

Friday, July 8, 2016

European Car Industry: Ten electric vehicles from Renault launch E-Car Club in Stornoway



Renault
A new 100 per cent electric car club has been launched in Stornoway in the Outer Hebrides.

The club has taken delivery of nine Renault ZOEs and one Renault Kangoo van Z.E. for use by locals and visitors who now have the chance to see what it is like to drive an electric car.

They will be powered by much of the renewable energy generated by the Pentland Road Wind Farm on the island and will be available to hire for half an hour, an hour a day or even longer.

The idea is to demonstrate how electric cars can be just as at home in a rural environment as an urban one and how sharing may be the way forward for those who may not always need a car permanently.

Drivers who want to hire one of the E-car Club vehicles can do so at a variety of locations across Stornoway on the Isle of Lewis for only £5.50 an hour for the ZOE or £45 a day. The Kangoo van comes in at £7.50 and hour or £60 a day and power and insurance is included.

Read more: Ten electric vehicles from Renault launch E-Car Club in Stornoway - Daily Record

Thursday, July 7, 2016

Cancer Linked Herbicides: Private Tests Show Cancer-Linked Herbicide in Breakfast Foods; FDA mum on Its Assessments - by Carey Gillam

If you started your day off with a whole wheat bagel and a bowl of instant strawberries-and-cream-flavored oatmeal today, you might think you made some fairly healthy breakfast choices.

You might want to think again.

According to a report released Tuesday by the Alliance for Natural Health USA, testing procured from an independent laboratory found detectable levels of the herbicide glyphosate in oatmeal and bagels as well as coffee creamer and seven more products, for a total of 10 out of 24 breakfast food items showing levels of glyphosate - a chemical the World Health Organization’s cancer experts have linked to cancer.

Notably, some of the highest levels of the chemical were detected in organic food products, including eggs marketed as “organic, cage-free, antibiotic-free” eggs; and in organic bagels and bread. Indeed, the organic cage-free eggs contained more glyphosate than regulators allow, the group said.

The group also tested flour, corn flakes, instant oatmeal, yogurt, frozen hash browns, and coffee creamers.

The laboratory that conducted the tests was Microbe Inotech Laboratories in St. Louis. Microbe, founded by former Monsanto Co. scientist Bruce Hemming, has been sought out by an array of food companies, consumer groups and others to conduct glyphosate residue testing over the last few years.

Read more: Private Tests Show Cancer-Linked Herbicide in Breakfast Foods; FDA mum on Its Assessments

Wednesday, July 6, 2016

Britain: Tony Blair unrepentant as Chilcot gives crushing Iraq war verdict - by Luke Harding

A defiant Tony Blair defended his decision to go to war in Iraq in 2003 following the publication of a devastating report by Sir John Chilcot, which mauled the ex-prime minister’s reputation and said that at the time of the 2003 invasion Saddam Hussein “posed no imminent threat”.

Looking tired, his voice sometimes croaking with emotion, Blair described his decision to join the US attack as “the hardest, most momentous, most agonizing decision I took in 10 years as British prime minister”.

He said he felt “deeply and sincerely ... the grief and suffering of those who lost ones they loved in Iraq”.

The head of the Iraq war inquiry said the UK’s decision to attack and occupy a sovereign state for the first time since the second world war was a decision of “utmost gravity”. Chilcot described Saddam as “undoubtedly a brutal dictator” who had repressed and murdered many of his own people and attacked his neighbors.

But he was withering about Blair’s choice to sign up to a military plan drawn up in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 by the US president, George W Bush, and his neo-con team. Chilcot said: “We have concluded that the UK chose to join the invasion of Iraq before the peaceful options for disarmament had been exhausted. Military action at that time was not a last resort.”

Overall, Chilcot’s report amounts to arguably the most scathing official verdict on any modern British prime minister. It implicitly lumps Blair in the same category as Anthony Eden, who invaded Egypt in a failed attempt to gain control of the Suez canal. Chilcot’s 2.6m-word, 12-volume report was released on Wednesday morning, together with a 145-page executive summary.

Note EU-Digest: Tony Blair needs to be put in jail together with Bush Rumsfeld and Cheney. They (the US) are the root cause for our European refugee and terrorism problems which came as a direct result of the IRAQ war and US's Middle East policies..

It is high time the US Congress also puts together an investigation committee to investigate Bush, Cheney and Rumsfelds role in the IRAQ war and their lies to the US population and the countries who were called upon to support the US in this disastrous war.

Read more: Tony Blair unrepentant as Chilcot gives crushing Iraq war verdict | UK news | Th

Tuesday, July 5, 2016

As the Muslim community celebrates Eid al-Fitr - it's also almost 500 years since Martin Luther's Reformation

While the Muslim community celebrates Eid al-Fitr, also known as Eid ul-Fitr or Eicelebration that marks the end of Ramadan (a holy month of fasting observed by Muslims) - it is also almost 500 years ago since Martin Luther's Protestant Reformation revolutionized the former dogmatic, legalistic Christian thinking;

One of the greatest achievements of the Reformation movement was that it brought forward the need for "educated faith"

 

As Martin Luther would have said:"You can now ask questions. You can be critical about the church. You yourself can read the Bible and sharpen your own conscience". Maybe, as we wish our Muslim brothers and Sisters a Şeker Bayramı, we also pray for them that they will be blessed in finding their own Martin Luther. 

 

Insure-Digest

Sunday, July 3, 2016

Christianity: Coming to Terms with a Post-Christian World - by Rod Dreher

Political and legal revolutions always follow cultural revolutions. The gay rights revolution is just the latest example of the West’s long process of emancipating the individual from all authority outside the sovereign Self.

Gerson and Wehner are surely correct that Christians must learn to live in a world—I would call it a post-Christian world—that accepts same-sex marriage. And they are right to say that as a general rule, Christians should work with LGBT citizens and their allies on causes both sides support.

But I see two big problems with their essay. First, it is naïve to believe that if only Christians stop making a big deal about homosexuality, LGBT groups and their allies will partner with us in other areas. Many people on the other side see orthodox Christians as the equivalent of straight-up white supremacists.

It’s outrageously unfair, but that’s the world we live in. As long as we hold to traditional biblical teaching on sexuality, all the winsomeness in the world won’t make them like us.

Second, I sense in Gerson and Wehner’s essay a veiled willingness to compromise on Christian sexual orthodoxy. They blame “some Christian leaders” for “associating Christianity primarily with sexual morality.” That’s true, to an extent, but the secular world, especially the media, has played a far more consequential role in this distortion.

Our news-entertainment media have for the past two decades obsessively promoted the LGBT cause. It has been the sole standard on which many outside the church judge us. Why should those who stand on the issue where all Christians stood for nearly two millennia surrender to the radical

If the Bible doesn’t say much about homosexuality, what it does say is uncompromising. The Bible is equally uncompromising about sexual purity, and more broadly, on sexual complementarity as intrinsic to Judeo-Christianity’s theological anthropology.

To affirm homosexuality would mean refusing the clear teaching of Scripture not only on same-sex relations, but also on sexuality itself, and even what it means to be fully human.

The sociologist Philip Rieff, in his prophetic 1966 book The Triumph of the Therapeutic, said that subordinating sexual desire to God’s purposes was at the center of Christian culture from the beginning. Renouncing sexual freedom, and controlling sexual desire and spiritualizing it, was part of the “positive asceticism” of Christian

Today, Rieff said, we live in a “post-ascetic culture” in which we have ceased to be religious, and have instead become psychological. Therefore, individual fulfillment is our goal. “Religious man was born to be saved,” Rieff wrote. “Psychological man is born to be pleased.

Christians who think standing firm on traditional sexual teaching is ancillary to the gospel, and even harmful to its spread, may mean well. But in accommodating the zeitgeist, they surrender something more essential than they realize.

I agree with Gerson and Wehner that traditional Christians have lost the culture war. I agree that we need a “dose of realism” about that. And I agree that offering healing is more important than offering judgment.

Saturday, July 2, 2016

Britain: Is US-UK Trade Bill Now In US Congress, One Week After Brexit Legal?

Despite claims that the US would banish Britain to the “back of the queue” if it dared to leave the European Union, Congress is already considering measures to boost trade with the UK.

A bill to lock down current trading arrangements, and fire the starting gun on a bilateral deal, was introduced to the US Senate yesterday.

The United Kingdom Trade Continuity Act mandates the US to keep trading on exactly the same terms after Britain leaves the EU.

It also urges the President to start fast-track talks with the UK, with the aim of concluding a bilateral trade deal in just one year.

The bill was introduced by senators Mike Lee (R-UT) and Tom Cotton (R-AR), who said strengthening the so-called special relationship is in the interest of both nations.

It comes after a string of nations made positive noises about stepping up UK trade within days of it ditching the EU, which removes the ability of member states to strike their own deals.

The crucial section of the bill reads: “Not later than 30 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, the President should initiate negotiations with the United Kingdom with the goal of reaching a final comprehensive bilateral trade agreement by the date that is one year after such date of enactment; and the President should make every effort to negotiate such an agreement expeditiously.”

While the bill has no power to compel the President to do anything, it would be a strong sign that the US prioritizes closer economic relations with the UK.

In a statement on the bill, Senator Lee said: “Our nation’s special relationship with the United Kingdom has promoted economic prosperity and security in both countries for over a hundred years.

The legality of the bill, however, is questionable, since Britain has not yet formally put EU article 50 up for implementation, and is consequently still tied to EU laws, which does not allow member states of the EU to instigate their own trade negotiations.

EU-Digest 

Friday, July 1, 2016

Britain "The Mouse That Wants To Roar But Can't" As It Descends Into Political And Economic Chaos after Brexit vote

History has proven:Nationalism always ends in disaster
The only certainty is uncertainty: political and economic upheaval continues after the UK’s vote to leave the European Union.

On Monday, chancellor George Osborne sought to calm the markets, saying the Conservatives had “prepared for whatever the future held”. But Osborne did not reverse his prediction that Britain’s exit would plunge the country into recession and cost thousands of jobs. Meanwhile, the pound dropped to a 31-year-low against the dollar.

As the country -- and the continent eyeing it warily across the Channel -- attempted to come to grips with the fallout of last week's vote to leave the European Union, its political parties imploded in a frenzy of backstabbing and internecine struggle.

It's intrigue and skulduggery that puts the current feuding across the pond, where Donald Trump is now rounding on GOP rivals who have so far refused to back him, in the shade.

First, there was the no-confidence vote against Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, whose lackluster support of the Remain campaign infuriated many of his fellow colleagues in the opposition. Corbyn's decision to fight for his post -- backed by much of Labour's more leftist rank-and-file -- has triggered "what will likely be an ugly and protracted war for the party’s soul," writes The Washington Post's Griff Witte.

Uncertainty following Britain’s decision to leave the European Union will be sufficient to push its economy into recession by the turn of the year, according to research by analyst Davy

Following the result, the outlook for the UK economy has “deteriorated sharply”, according to the report, which said UK GDP would grow by just 1.2 per cent in 2016 and 0.2 per cent in 2017.

“We believe the uncertainty will be sufficient to push the UK into a recession through the turn of the year 2016/2017 based on a 10 per cent peak-to-trough contraction in business investment by early 2017,” it said.

Davy is forecasting a 2.1 per cent rise in consumer spending in 2016, slowing to a marginal 0.1 per cent gain in 2017.

“We expect investment to contract by 1.5 per cent in 2016 and 3 per cent in 2017,” said the report. “We now expect UK employment to grow by just 1.1 per cent and 0.1 per cent in 2016 and 2017 respectively – so that productivity growth is flat and companies limit their firing of employees.

“This means the unemployment rate rises from an average of 5.2 per cent in 2016 to 6.5 per cent in 2017.

Whatever positive coloring the financial markets are trying to give to the fallout of Brexit, the bottom-line in describing the future of the "British Mouse that roared" must include two words: disaster and meltdown.

Other EU members trying to follow Britain's "jump into an uncertain future" better start reading the Tea leaves.

EU-Digest